When the news broke Sunday afternoon that the Atlanta Braves traded their young second baseman Tommy La Stella to the Chicago Cubs for international signee Arodys Vizcaino and international bonus slots, the move came as a bit of a surprise. Why would the GM Jed Hoyer and the Cubs, a team already with a glut of young infielders make a trade to acquire another young infielder?
The logical answer it would seem, is that the Cubs – long rumored to be shopping Starlin Castro and Javier Baez – are ready to make a move. Last week a rumor broke that Jordan Zimmermann could possibly be heading to the Northsiders, but that was quickly quashed.
So while it doesn’t appear that a deal to move Castro, Baez or even Keith Hernandez‘s favorite Cub, Arismendy Alcantara is imminent, it is hard to read the La Stella acquisition as anything but a precursor to a shortstop leaving Chicago.
Hey! I know a team that could use a young shortstop and has the pieces needed to make a deal with the Cubs! Yeah, the Mets!
Just going off of the predominant viewpoints being floated around by national reporters, it looks like Castro or Baez is the most likely to be moved, so let’s focus on them.
Starlin Castro
Starlin Castro will be 25 on Opening Day. He will be starting his sixth major league season. He is 154 hits away from 1000 on his career. Yes, he doesn’t walk a ton or play spectacular defense, but he has a significant advantage over Baez in terms of his attractiveness as a player – we know what he is.
Castro has a track record of being a positive offensive player, and his best years are likely ahead of him. Here’s a fun comparison:
Player A: 733 g, .290/.333/.419, .328 wOBA, 108 wRC+, 11.8 fWAR
Player B: 740 g, .274/.320/.409, .321 wOBA, 98 wRC+, 11.2 fWAR
Player B is Starlin Castro, and Player A is Mets second baseman Daniel Murphy. The point here being, that they have not been dissimilar players throughout their careers. Those, including myself, who are in the “the Mets need more role players like Murphy” camp should be more than pleased with a hypothetical trade for Castro.
Javier Baez
Prospects are often likened to lottery tickets and for a good reason – they can be winners and they can completely be a bust. Trading for Baez would be like putting all your chips on a single number in roulette. If you get it right, there’s a huge payoff ahead, if not, it blows up right in your face. If the Mets trade for Baez and he flops, it’s not the end of the world, but it hurts their chances moving forward. If he blossoms, he’s a future star. It’s a risk.
I wrote about Baez in August, and my thoughts haven’t changed much on him since. His strikeout numbers are just downright mind-boggling. Baez fanned 95 times in 229 plate appearances, a 41.5% rate. No player in MLB history has ever struck out more than that in a season with a minimum of 220 plate appearances. Not one since 1871.
There is no doubt that Baez hits for power – and a ton of it. There is great doubt as to whether he will ever be able to make enough consistent contact with the ball to become the star he can be.
The Mets are in a position as a team where they need to minimize the risk of players that they bring in, and Baez is far too risky. Yes, all players come with risk, they all come with flaws, but in the case of the two Cubs shortstops, Castro is the much better choice. That, of course, comes at a higher player price, but it’s one the Mets should be willing to pay for playoff baseball in 2015.
I think the LaStella signing (and I’ve read this elsewhere) is purely a depth signing. Theo seems to like having a flexible roster and La Stella gives them someone who can get on base. They likely are not trading one of their superstars or super prospects just to get Tommy La Stella in the lineup everyday.
epstein like other gms are in it to win the division or wild card if the ny mets can offer them players like maybe niese and murphy and a good minor league outfielder believe me he will make a deal and if the mets can offer niese and lets say coln and and a player to be named that schould get it done
They are not trading Castro for Niese and Murphy. They just traded for La Stella – you think they want another 2b? The only way Theo trades us Castro is if he gets Wheeler (at least) in return. If Murphy does get traded to clear $, and pave the way for Flores to move to 2B with a new SS coming in, it will likely be to an American league team.
Don’t know what Brave or Cubs are doing. Cubs trading pitching, for a talented young infielder. Braves trading Haywood and LaStella? Really a mystery. Braves had trouble producing runs, like the Mets. Shelly Miller, might also be injury prone. Not worth Heywood’s potential, Cards made best deal of the day. BJ’s contract killing the Braves.
Braves are clearing payroll and guys who only have 1 year left on their deal because they can’t extend them. Reports that they are heavily shopping Justin Upton as well. They likely want to get their payroll back near the 90 million mark.
They do have open spots in the rotation that were occupied by Harang and Santana, and even though the can fill 1 spot with David Hale, i’m guessing they also want to hedge against Kris Medlen coming from his 2nd TJ.
Starlin Castro is controlled between his 25-29 years of age, at a very reasonable price, and produces at an all star level. He plays average defense. His fixed salary will keep the team budget flexible. What is not to like.
The Cubs want young pitching. I would be willing to move Wheeler and Mejia for him. Castro is on the top of my wish list as the SS upgrade.
Or this opens up a deal with Atlanta. Maybe Wright and Cuddyer want to expand the circle of friends from VA.
It keeps popping up that these two teams match well, but publicly it’s been all negative about a deal actually happening. Castro offers actual upgrade. Baez offers potential.
The Heyward for Shelby Miller Deal would seem to point to Wheeler and Castro as Principals….and I’m never convinced that anyone would trade a 25 year old allstar SS!!!
as for this comment comparing Castro to Murphy: “The point here being, that they have not been dissimilar players throughout their careers. “….wow—this is just so frustrating that you can actually believe this!!!! Castro plays a Premium position that he can actually play at a high level. Murphy struggles to survive at 2b.
I love Murph, but c’mon!
Baez has potential? How? If he can’t make contact trying to hit what numbers do you expect him to put up? He;s the kind of player Alderson stays away from. Let’s see. 500 AB’s? 200 K’s? Are you serious about “potential”?
I told you guys last week to keep an eye on the Rangers, forget the Cubs. The Cubs aren’t motivated buyers.
http://www.nbcdfw.com/blogs/red-fever/Potential-Target-Dillon-Gee-282581271.html
http://www.nbcdfw.com/blogs/red-fever/Potential-Target-Jonathon-Niese-282736571.html
The Rangers only have two starting pitchers in their rotation for next year, Darvish and Holland, and Holland was hurt at year’s end. They need cheap reliable starters. Who has those and needs a shortstop, of which the Rangers have excess?
Why is my comment in moderation?
I think it has something to do with your email address being changed?
No. I posted this right after I posted the other comment showing a Rangers blog commenting on how the Rangers are targeting Gee and Niese. And, posted the links.
The blog wrote that the Mets need a shortstop and the Rangers have plenty of them.
Really? I’ve been talking non stop about how perfect Sardinas would be for the mets, he’d hit 8th which is perfect we need someone to slide in there and his defense and speed is game ready as the bat develops, still a but raw. He wouldn’t break the bank in terms of cost either.
Any comment with more than one link goes to moderation. It’s an anti-spam device.
Then I guess you’ll have to wait until Brian wakes up from his beauty sleep.
LOL. Just a couple of links to small articles writing how the Rangers are looking at the Mets for cheap, controllable pitching and have plenty of shortstops to offer.
Damnit! I wanted to see those links!
Just putting it out there, aside from the stolen bases Castro had a similar year to 2011, he was in the MVP vote that year. The walks are the same, the hits would be closer if he played more games as well. It seems like if you’re going to take this risk you take him. He’s getting better and with good players around him, man he’s gonna be really good. He’s a significant upgrade and at 25 years old he’s only getting better.
Mike, I like Profar and you like Castro. Either one would please me, but they are close enough where price will be the deciding factor, for me.
Joe, I’m in complete agreement regarding Baez. Great power, but his approach is something straight out of little league. I’m sure he’ll be a good player, but I think in the next three years he’s going to struggle and fail to adjust. Pass!
I’m not as high on Castro as others. If he starts the season in Chicago, I won’t shed any tears of what could’ve been.