I feel like I’ve been overly harsh on Dominic Smith. He’s 19 years old and playing in Advanced A for the first time against much older competition, but the former first round pick has not looked very good through 2015.
Smith has been solid in his first two minor league seasons. He’s hit for average, drawn plenty of walks and shown people a glimpse of what could be burgeoning talent. He plays first base and what he hasn’t shown is the typical power that you’d look for from this position. In 766 at bats he’s only managed 51 doubles and 4 home runs.
The good news is that he has an 11% walk-rate and only a 18% K-rate. It doesn’t make up for a lack of power, but with Smith’s body-type, we hope the power will follow.
2015 had not been going well for him. In April he boasted a dismal .220/.256/.244 line that was unacceptable from a top prospect. May has seen his line improve, as he is .264/.316/.385 for the month but over the last 10 games, Smith has become blisteringly hot. Over the last 10 games he’s batting a healthy .385 and hitting for extra bases regularly. We hope this continues long enough to make us forget how bad April was for him.
AAA:
Don’t get too excited about T.J. Rivera – I like Rivera and he’s a solid hitter but he projects as a bench player. That’s truly the limit of his value.
Steven Matz is good… real good – Right now the only way you can trade Matz is for an equally talented stud player on another team… like Javier Baez.
Emergency starter Duane Below looks sharp – He’s looking pretty solid. Expect him to get the call if there is an emergency start to be had that would not allow Matz to stay in the majors for more than a game.
AA:
Is Gavin Cecchini this good? – Short answer is, I hope so. He’s finally started to find a hitter’s stroke in AA and looks primed to be promoted to AAA.
Jayce Boyd offers something – Boyd’s future is on the bench where his contact and limited power will be a boon.
Luis Cessa, Rainy Lara and Seth Lugo have been good but not great – Each is pitching well and earning a bump to AAA in 2016 but none of them have stood out to the point of getting overly excited.
A+:
Michael Conforto is out of his slump – If his bat stays solid for a few more games the calls for a promotion will start up again.
Amed Rosario quietly improving – Nothing off the charts but his line is currently .277/.323/.373 on the year and with luck that will improve.
Don’t forget Jeff McNeil – We don’t talk about him much but his .828 OPS currently leads the team.
A:
Remember the name Luis Guillorme – He’s snuck into my top organizational prospects list. He’s a contact oriented shortstop and his defense is good.
Casey Meisner has earned his promotion – He’s dominated in Savannah this year and he’s earned a chance to prove himself in Port St. Lucie.
Brad Wieck is coming around – When I scouted Brooklyn last season, Wieck’s arm was one that I took note of. He’s got some real life on his fastball. This is starting to pay dividends as he has 37 K’s in his last 24.1 IP.
People forget that Smith was hurt the first month of the season which most likely contributed to his bad start
Thanks to electronic necessity, this post was written on Friday. Since then Conforto was already promoted to AA. Please forgive the time delay.
Well, if T.J. Rivera can hit coming off the bench that would be a real improvment over what they have now
Rivera seems to have those skills, but so does Eric Campbell if you look at his minor league numbers.
Matz should be an untouchable. He’s that good!
One lesson: don’t give up quickly on young players. Look how Reynolds, Smith, Cecchini, and Rosario have come around after slow starts.
Matz is one of my favorite players. The only person I’d trade him for is Javier Baez who is an equally awesome young player who happens to play a position we need more.
People are still a touch over-hyped on Reynolds.
Agree on Reynolds, but think he would be a useful utility infielder.
I like Baez, but think that Matz is the better player. As for need, a rotation of four #1’s (Matz, Harvey, deGrom, and Syndergaard) and a #2 (Wheeler) is just too good to pass up. Niese, Gee, and Colon will be gone soon enough.
Why is everyone salivating over Baez? That dude strikes out a ton! 26% in AAA this year….what’s going to happen when he gets called back up? 30% K rate from your SS is insanity.
Agree 100%. Those Ks worry me too much to take him seriously so far. Although 25+ home runs sure would be nice.
When I saw Smith last season he seemed like he was still carrying “baby fat”. I was glad to read he attended the January work out sessions. He is only 20 this month but he needs to start adding some muscle. I am not enamored with him because he does not stand out like when I have seen Conforto or Plawecki. But I am just a fan and nowhere near being a scout. He is only 20 with plenty of time.
Jeff McNeil is a favorite of mine. He graciously stopped and posed for a photo for me. He is of very slight build and I just don’t see him generating any power. I wish him the best.
In 2013 some guy named Carlos Torres pitched 2 CGs for Las Vegas, and then a week later he was called up and managed to become one of the more reliable arms in the pen.
In 2015, some guy named Duane Below has pitched 2 CGs for Las Vegas… but the Mets are deep enough in the bullpen in 2015 they didn’t call him up. Oh well.
Carlos Torres should have gotten more of a chance as a SP with the Mets. He’s made 10 starts in his career with the Mets and 8 of them were good (2.45 ERA in 47.2 IP) and 2 were horrible (both against the Nats in 2013).
They easily could have used him in the rotation last year and signed a veteran bullpen arm instead of Colon. There were reasonable SP option that began 2014 in the minors in case Torres failed in the role. Best-case scenario, you’ve got a low-cost #3 SP. Worst-case scenario you’ve got Torres in the bullpen.
I don’t understand why it’s okay to jerk around Torres but not Dillon Gee.
I dont think jerking anyone around is a smart thing. There a big difference though: Gee is a drafted, groomed, and career Met that the organization believed would be a long timer in the starting rotation. Torres was a drifter from who knows where and the Mets needed help in a specific place. He agreed to those terms. Colon is a past Cy Young award winner who had a pretty terrific time in Oakland seemingly failing to age. I think the decisions make “mathematical” sense even if they dont represent moves most of us would have done.
I bet if you ask Gee, he feels like hes being jerked around now!
I’m not disputing that preferential treatment is given to players because of how the team acquired them — I’m saying that preferential treatment stinks.
When Gee’s on the mound giving one of his 5 IP, 4 ER starts that keeps his streak alive, I’m not proud of my team for drafting him. I’m wondering why he’s keeping better guys from making starts in his place. And why he lives the charmed life.
Edit: As for the Colon signing, I was not against it at the beginning like many were. I saw the chance for upside. It’s probably not a move I would have made but I can’t honestly say that I was against it.
Oh, I fully agree with you on this. Its just that the reality is that all things are not created or treated equal. I dont think the FO ever had any plans for Torres beyond gobbling up any goodness and spitting him out when that ran its course. Fair? No. Solid player appraisal? No. Reality? Yes.
Oh, the new Pedro Feliciano?
I agree that the Colon signing was a huge mistake. Pointless. A very poor use of available resources. Team does not need starting pitching.
D smith just named fsl player of the week. Well timed.
Because of the slow start I’d like him to play well for another 2-3 weeks before talk of any promotion gets bandied about but he’s been “on fire”.
I remember when he was drafted and everyone was gushing on how talented he was. It helped that he raked in his rookie season. Dominic Smith has the potential to be the next big thing for the Metropolitans, its all going to come down to whether or not he can dethrone Lucas Duda.
I saw Meisner pitch last night. Seven solid innings of 3 hit ball with great control and he knows how to pitch not just throw. He top out at 92 mph with a differentiation of 76 mph on his breaking ball. There were many weak contact at bats which indicated to me late movement on his pitches. He tired in the eighth inning, topping out at only 89 mph and gave up two hits but no runs because of a foolish attempted double steal that ended the inning. He was out of gas in the ninth when he gave up his run. He looks like another solid pitcher in the Mets system. Becerra had a terrific game with two doubles and a homerun. He is very athletic with nice speed and a strong arm in RF. He is making progress over the last time I saw him a month ago. Guillermo has the glove, arm and instincts to be a major league SS and made a pro play on a bare handed slow roller showing off his balance and arm. It was a fun night in Asheville.
Thanks for sending along the scouting report. Gives more insight into Meisner’s improved numbers.