For the past two offseasons, Sandy Alderson has focused on improving the outfield any way possible. The 2013 season was not a great one for the Mets, and Alderson knew his prospects were on their way to being promoted, creating a need for the Mets to make moves during the offseason, and get more offensive production from the outfield. Obviously hindsight is 20/20, but Alderson could have added one player that could have helped the lineup tremendously, and Alderson would pass on him twice.
The Mets finished the 2013 season with a 74-88 record, and an outfield made up of Eric Young Jr., Juan Lagares and Marlon Byrd, although Byrd and John Buck would be traded to the Pittsburgh Pirates for Vic Black and Dilson Herrera later in the season. Throughout the season, the Mets used Rick Ankiel, Mike Baxter, Andrew Brown, and Kirk Nieuwenhuiss to play in the outfield. Luckily Juan Lagares was a bright spot for the team, as his defense was a game-changing talent, even if he did struggle offensively. If the Mets were going to compete, they needed to have some help from free agency.
In November 2013, Alderson acted quickly and signed Chris Young to a 1-year deal, which turned out to be a debacle, as Young never got it going with the Mets. Next month came the Curtis Granderson signing, which gave fans a little hope. The outfield did increase production in 2014, thanks to Granderson hitting 20 homers and driving in 66.
The most frustrating aspect of the offseason was that Alderson had the chance to take a risk on another outfielder. In 2013, Nelson Cruz was an All-Star for the Texas Rangers, but was suspended for being involved in the Biogenesis scandal. Teams were scared to sign Cruz because they were not sure what kind of production he could provide, and the scrutiny the signing would have. However, the Baltimore Orioles took a risk, and Cruz ended up hitting 40 homers and driving in 108 runs. He did this on the same deal Alderson offered Young. The Mets gamble was gone from the team before the end of the season, while Cruz went on to finish seventh in the MVP vote.
Cruz would enter free agency looking for a bigger contract, which probably scared the Mets away during the 2014-2015 offseason. The Seattle Mariners signed him for four years worth $57 million. This season he is off to another great start, as he has hit 21 homers, driving in 50 runs. To put that into perspective, Granderson leads the Mets in homers with 13, and Wilmer Flores leads the Mets in RBIs with 35.
Once again, Alderson missed out on this opportunity and went with Michael Cuddyer, who has a 0.2 WAR through 74 games, while Cruz’s WAR is 2.6. WAR does not mean everything, but the production Cruz is giving Seattle would be more than welcomed into the Mets lineup, which has struggled to score runs the past couple of weeks.
Can you imagine what the past two seasons would have been like if Cruz was a Met? There may have been some frustrating moments on the defensive side of the ball, but imagine a lineup made of Granderson, Daniel Murphy, David Wright, Lucas Duda and Nelson Cruz. Even if Wright went down, the Mets lineup would feature a threat from the right side of the plate.
Alderson has gambled in the past, and it turned out okay, but passing on Cruz has hurt the Mets, and only causes disappointment. Cuddyer’s deal could block Michael Conforto’s promotion (which will probably happen sometime next year) and the Mets will have Brandon Nimmo joining the big league squad within the next couple of seasons. Although Granderson has been streaky the first half of the 2015, he can get on base and provides power at the top of the lineup. If Alderson took a chance on Cruz, he would have looked like a genius if Cruz produced similar results. Instead we must continue to hope that Cuddyer turns it around some point this season.
Granderson has been just as valuable as Nelson Cruz this year, 1.9 WAR vs 1l.8 WAR per (http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=rf&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=y&type=8&season=2015&month=33&season1=2015&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&sort=21,d) … and that’s before you realize the Nelson Cruz is more or less a full time designated hitter because he’s an atrocity in the outfield. Oh yeah, Cruz is also older and signed for more years.
Sandy has made plenty of mistakes … Granderson over Cruz, all things considered, isn’t even close to one of them
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Alderson is great at trading veterans for prospects and he also walks his dog.
The best comprehensive article I read regarding the Cuddyer signing was:
http://metsblog.com/hide/deep-dive-the-cuddyer-signing/
I was very interested in the research on 36 year old players. Cuddyer and his sub 2 WAR was not enough of an impact signing to get the Mets to the playoffs. I considered him a “piece” and an improvement but not a solution. Unfortunately Sandy did not sign a “solution” player this past winter.
It is easy to look back and say shoulda,woulda,coulda but the good gm’s evaluate major league players and sign the right ones. A good GM will not “continue to hope that Cuddyer turns it around at some time this season” but instead get another OF bat to improve the team.
http://nypost.com/2015/07/05/5-bats-mets-can-target-to-platoon-with-regressing-juan-lagares/
Parra or Venable will cost some prospects as they are just rentals. Isn’t that the reason to build the farm system in order to seize the opportunity?
Holt and Peralta would cost more as they are minimum salary team controlled but nice young players to add to a roster and hedge the bets on Nimmo and Conforto.
Smith is a player that could easily take at bats from Cuddyer and would be an improvement but cost in salary and trade pieces may be too much for the Mets.
The Dodgers need a back end starter and have outfield bats such as Guerro .
Holt and Guerro can also play infield.
Why platooning Lagares who is a huge difference maker with the glove – while injured it can be downgraded to just a difference maker – and not looking to platoon Granderson’s .354 OPS against lefties or that Cuddyer has been an albatross on the Mets lineup? [Hold on, let me guess: “Veterans”; “Terry’s pets”, right?] If Sherman wanted to shut Lagares down so he can have surgery, that’s one thing. If he wants to punish him for the team’s troubles he is focused on the wrong person. Platooning the #9 hitter will not fix the #3, #4 and quasi-leadoff hitter that have really been the issue.
Gus, I think you missed the point here. Sandy can get an outfield bat and also an infield bat amongst the six players mentioned without trading any of the Fab Five. He would be improving his bench.
The two added players would spell the outfielders and the 2b and SS positions. Cuddyer needs less at bats. Duda and Lagares need to rest more. Flores and Tejada are not complete players. IMHO I would go after Parra by trading prospects then Guerro or Holt for Niese. Platooning Lagares is not the objective here. Improving upon Campbell and Cecillani is the goal while adding quality players to the roster.
I agree and am writing an article with six very eligible names to do such: Banafacio (a very streaky player who has sucked in the first half and plays everywhere), Alex Guerrero (if the Dodgers don’t think he really is Mike Trout in their request), Shane Victorino, Gerardo Parra, Dustin Ackley, Will Venable.
Then you have more guys like Skip Shumaker, Daniel Descaso and Steve Lombardozzi that may not be better than the guys they are replacing.
Just imagine if he had signed Ellsbury or Choo two seasons ago. Things could have been different very different. And how about Hanley Ramirez this offseason for LF? Sometimes you have to spend money to make money.
Currently, this week’s mood, I look at the Mets two ways:
1) What the right steps to take would be if they had real owners;
2) What to do in face of the fact they don’t have real owners.
So lately I’ve been saying that they need to acquire talent and the only way to do that would be to trade Syndergaard.
It’s cold; it’s logical; and it’s wrong.
I’m sorry, folks, the Wilpons made me this way.
Obviously — and let me capitalize that here, to make a point: obviously! –it would be stupid to trade away a young pitching talent like Noah Syndergaard. Idiotic beyond belief. Guys like him come along, you keep them. Simple.
The clear answer is for the owners to raise the operating budget by $30-$40 million next season and for the GM to go out and buy a couple of ballplayers. Trades could be involved, in order to upgrade here and fill in there, but bringing in outside talent must be part of the solution. Then you keep the great starting rotation and build around it.
I think a team that spends — that invests in itself — would get that money back and more by ticket sales, SNY ratings, commercials, playoffs, etc.
So I am apologizing because at times I fall into the category of #2, advocating a line of thought that I know is brainless. Trade Syndergaard! The only reason we’d ever consider that is because these horrible, disgusting, criminal, scumbag owners have brought this once-great franchise so low.
I hate the Wilpons. Rotten to the core.
James, great post and dead on accurate in my opinion. The quickest way to turn this franchise around would be to make a trade for some decent owners. Maybe we could trade them to the Dodgers for Magic and one or two others?
The cognitive dissonance to this team is that despite all our (real!) frustrations, we see a series like the one in LA and think, well, yeah, this team is close.
I picked them for 87 wins and it’s still very possible. Coming into the final two weeks of the season, the NY Mets will have a realistic shot at Game 163, not the playoffs exactly, but the glorious “play-in” game that MLB likes to call “the playoffs.”
Meaningful games in September: the ultimate Wilpon goal. And, who knows, maybe they win a few every once in a while. Swell!
The dissonance is these two counter-narratives: 1) Alderson has failed; and 2) Look, Game 163 and a great pitching staff: Alderson has succeeded.
Personally, I believe he can and will ultimately succeed in steering the Mets back into the playoffs — hey, they did it in Pittsburgh, they are going to do it in Houston — but he has done so much harm along the way, so many wrong-minded moves, so much wasted time & money — that I can only see him as an unimaginative bore who slowly, steadily slogged the team toward some low level of “success.” Since nowadays, any record over .500 puts you in the so-called “hunt.”
And with this staff, there’s no question that — even this year, as crazy as this sounds today — the NY Mets could win the World Series. That’s true of half the teams in baseball, but it is an improvement for all his prior seasons as GM.
Anyway, sorry, no great point here, other than the point out the obvious. The Mets may have a GM who can succeed and fail at the same time. It’s challenging to wrap my mind around it.
As of this minute, the difference between Lucas Duda and Wilmer Flores is 26 walks.
BA & SLG are nearly identical.
26 walks and 9 doubles.
That’s 44 extra bases, about 1 per every other game.
Good point about the doubles. I had glanced at SLG numbers and found them very close. However, it’s doubles instead of singles, so inaccurate to count each double as “two” extra bases or it would have been reflected in BA.
Still, no great point here, just that besides a little extra power in the doubles department, the difference here is in the walks.
And when it comes to my cleanup hitter, a walk is not as good as a hit. We know this is true for many reasons, including the fact that defenses often elect to walk hitters intentionally or semi-intentionally. They know for sure that a walk is not as good as a hit.
I’m not editorializing on the 26-walk difference. Not minimizing it, just stating it: that’s the distinction between these two hitters at this moment in the season. The walks — the non-outs — are significant. But walks can be developed w/ age & experience, they can also a factor of the lineup and, perhaps, in a hitter’s reputation.
I know that a lot of SABR-oriented people tend to downplay issues such as lineup construction and protection as it is commonly understood. But all I can say to that is, watch the games, pitch by pitch. Look at poor Lucas Duda. You start to press, you start to try too hard, pitchers respond to that new weakness, batters slump accordingly, and it spirals quickly. A real bat behind Duda would help immensely. And also, as I’ve said before, a real bat in front of him would help too. It ripples both ways. If there are runners on base when he comes up, pitchers are going to have to throw to him. If there’s a bat behind him, perhaps he’s more relaxed, more willing to take what is given to him.
Yep, you bat .165 for seven weeks and you fall into a tie with Flores. But you still play every day because you’re not 21.
As Ike Davis showed us, you don’t get out of slumps by watching fastballs in the strike zone and swinging at breaking stuff below your ankles. It’s just painful to watch Duda right now.
Brian, how many 21-year-olds are in the major leagues and hitting under .200?
Dilson has been up twice and shown little both times.
It’s not at all been clear to me that he’s an improvement right now, today, over Wilmer Flores, or more deserving.
His time will come . . . I hope.
And honestly, if our RBI leader was hitting .195, I’d be saying the same thing about him.
You make judgments based on talent, not age. I don’t care what everyone else does – I only care what’s right for the Mets.
From 6/4 to 7/1 a slow infielder not named Tejada hit .195 over 94 PA with a .567 OPS. And those were consecutive, not broken up around a DL stint.
Confession: I might have typed the above just for the pleasure of watching Brian’s head explode. It’s a 4th of July thing, I guess. Lighting fireworks.
James, the opening up of the wallet is not necessary. You have Colon $11MM coming off the books, Murphy’s $8MM coming off the books, Gee’s $5MM coming off the books, that why I would trade Granderson to get his $15MM off the books. Now you have $39MM coming off the books, and that is Upton or Gordon, and Zobrist to cover yourself at 3B or anywhere else if Cuddyer stinks it up again.
Well, it is possible to win without raising payroll, that’s certainly true. But to my mind, it’s less likely.
So I think it is necessary, Tex, because GMs always make mistakes — there’s always going to be poorly allocated money — and this is NY. The idea of winning in the most boring way possible is not really a crowd pleaser. It’s another thing that Steinbrenner understood when he took NYC away from the Mets. Star power. Minaya understood it, too. Out of Oakland and San Diego, two places where they never drew fans, Sandy Alderson does not seem to have a feel for NYC — nor does he have the resources (or inclination) to bring in that kind of everyday star power.
If I owned the Mets, the Wilpon/Alderson method would not be the way I ran my business. I’d look at the Dodgers and take my cues there. I’d generate excitement. They fill that place up.
To really succeed as a franchise, I think the Mets not only have to win, they will draw more fans if they win in an entertaining way.
I don’t see the Granderson trade scenario as realistic, and I’d love to see the Mets lock up deGrom to a 4-5 year contract as soon as possible. It may be that they’ll need Murphy back after all. Duda might want to get paid, etc.
That money goes fast.
In some ways, the worst thing that could happen would be for David to return, play at 80% of his ability (no power, say), and the Mets not only have that ongoing “is he or isn’t he?” lineup problem but also lose out on recovering 65% of his insured contract (i.e., Murphy money).
It’s possible that David Wright returns and the Mets get worse because they either 1) take a job away from Murphy or Flores, or 2) Shift Flores back to SS and take Tejada’s glove off the field (instantly making the Mets worse defensively at SS and 2B).
If David comes back and hits at his established levels, that’s a net positive. But if he’s much less than that, I guess I’d rather have the refund and move forward.
Gerardo Parra would help this team a lot and shouldnt cost too much. He’s hitting .311 at last check and can steal a few bases and bat leadoff. Plus he can allow cuddyer to play some first and DH.