FanGraphs, as of Friday morning, gave the Mets a 96.9% chance of winning the NL East after the team’s sweep in Washington and series opening win in Atlanta.
These are heady days for Mets fans and we are all enjoying the ride and hoping for a long run in the playoffs.
It is tempting to just enjoy the present, forget the past, and let the future play out as it will. Certainly for the manager and most of the players (Matt Harvey being the notable exception) all that exists is winning the next game and the next series.
The upper management led by Sandy Alderson gives lip service to also being focused just on this year but they fib. Of necessity they must be thinking about what this franchise will look like in 2016 and beyond.
Many things amaze me about this team. One is that at no time did the club seem to have just an average major league offense. For most of the year it was a team that could not score to save its life. People like Eric Campbell, Anthony Recker, John Mayberry Jr. (remember him?), and even Danny Muno were soaking up at bats. Then the trade deadline week came and with it came the veteran major league quality bats named Juan Uribe and Kelly Johnson.
Then came the greatest non-trade in Mets history when Carlos Gomez didn’t become a Met and a tearful Wilmer Flores became a folk legend. Because the Gomez deal fell through (I still maintain it was a dollars issue not a health issue) Alderson tried for his next favorite target: Justin Upton. When foiled there he happened upon Detroit which just about that time opted to become a seller. The package that couldn’t acquire Upton was enough to bring in uber-rental Yoenis Cespedes.
You would agree that that has worked out rather well? Certainly incredibly well when you consider Cespedes was the third option behind Gomez and Upton.
d’Arnaud and David Wright came off the DL and suddenly the team that spent all year trying to scratch out a run here or one there became as potent an offensive force as there is in all of MLB. Combining this highly functional offense with a well above average starting staff and an acceptable bullpen has produced what figures to be a division winner. When preseason picks are revisited one sees this as quite the upset.
Still we can conjecture about the off-season and then what might the 2016 edition of the team look like.
With every ringing double and launched home run Mr. Cespedes hits his price tag rises. The bidding for his services may start at 7 years, $150 million and figures to go up from there. The Wilpons with whom we are familiar are unlikely to be happy with the years and the price tag. Let us enjoy Cespedes through the playoffs because it is quite the long shot that he will be back.
Someone else in his lame duck semester is Daniel Murphy. He is having a typical Murphy season except for being a bit off in his batting against southpaws. As an impending free agent he may be able to get a contract like 2 years/$20 million or three for $27 mill. Hard to imagine the club biting on that when Dilson Herrera may be ready to lay claim to the second base job come next April.
An intriguing question is how to deploy Wilmer Flores. Personally my thinking has evolved on his offense which seems to be above average for a major league middle infielder. It could be outstanding if he ever better learned the strike zone and was willing to take a walk. Where my stance hasn’t changed is that Wilmer’s defense, specifically his range, is just too far below major league standards to make him an adequate day-in-day-out shortstop.
It is possible that the team will re-sign Kelly Johnson for a lot fewer dollars than Daniel Murphy will cost. Then KJ and Flores will be frequently used subs at first base, second base, and third. Johnson can play some corner outfield while Flores would be a backup at shortstop.
The team has gotten more out of Ruben Tejada this year than it had reason to expect. Ruben is an average defensive shortstop with a decent batting eye and virtually no power. The club could put itself in a better spot if an improvement were brought in at this key position.
With Cespedes likely gone Michael Conforto will become either the fulltime left fielder or the long half of a platoon. The savings the team reaps when Murphy and Barolo Colon leave could be used for a free agent outfielder. Gerardo Parra would be the kind of player that would significantly improve outfield depth. With Juan Lagares’ elbow a big question mark bringing in a player who can cover center would be most prudent. It is also possible that Brandon Nimmo could make the team and the outfield in some capacity.
Will GM Alderson trade from his pitching depth to bring in some offense? This is a possibility but by no means a sure thing.
Hopefully the return of Zach Wheeler will punch up an already impressive rotation. Harvey, deGrom, Matz, Syndergaard, and Wheeler has a nice ring to it. Doesn’t it?
Nice piece Larry. I would offer:
– After Gomez, the next target was Jay Bruce, but the Reds wanted more than just Wheeler. Talk about getting lucky sometimes.
-Yesterday MLBTR wrote that the Mets are expecting heavy action on Harvey. He could fill SS and other holes for them depending on the Cespedes outcome. But Cuddyer or Granderson has to go also, and I would bet Granderson who has two years left.
http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2015/09/mets-value-harvey-pursue-cespedes-red-sox-reds-angels-phillies-gm-openings.html
I also am glad that the Mets didn’t acquire Jay Bruce. I know it’s unfair to him, but I see Jay Bruce and I think Ben Grieve, oy.
With several possibly-good shortstop options working through the farm system I would rather hate for the Mets to give up too much to acquire a fix today. I mean, the Tejada/Flores mix is better than Raphael Santana was. I believe the need has been overstated.
Actually, even if to bring Jeter into the conversation is akin to bringing up the Nazis in a political discussion, I really do see some similarities to Jeter’s defensive play and that of Flores. Neither had good range, at all, but made up for it somewhat with arm strength (Jeter’s was obviously the stronger), positioning and superior situational awareness. Watch him: Wilmer knows where the play is in every situation. Flores plays hard all the time, and he isn’t overwhelmed by a crucial moment in the game. If he could improve his pitch recognition by 5% he would be a true asset to the team.
I read on a Mets blog that the Gomez negotiations were essentially a bluff and Alderson never had any intention of making that trade. Why would a team want to trade for a pitcher in the middle of elbow surgery rehab? Why wasn’t Flores pulled from a game when he was apparently traded? If Flores was indeed traded during the game not only would he have been pulled due to injury concerns but also because he would have no longer been the property of the New York Mets and he would not be allowed to play. In spite of what many have said throughout this season when the Mets were playing poorly, Sandy Alderson is not some bumbling incompetent, he is the man who won three consecutive American championships and a World Series. He is the man who taught Moneyball to Billy Beane. He is the man who got the Giants to overpay for Wheeler and the Blue Jays for Thor and D’Arnaud. My feeling is he slickered Detroit into sending Cepedes to the Mets, but then again I’m sure there are haters out there who will say that Mike Fulmer will be the new Tom Seaver. Don’t bother to write any insulting rebuttals, I never read them anyway.
This is what the wimpy kid in the school yard who would push someone and then run and hide behind a teacher grows up to be.
Seriously, how classy. After reading our opinions and responding to them, he writes that he doesn’t care what we think of his. Ironically, it was a well presented comment right until the part where he pulled a “Harvey” out of nowhere.
+1!
I doubt it was a bluff. Sandy wanted to include Lagares and his salary in the deal. Milwaukee wanted no part of a guy with a suspect elbow so wanted the inexpensive Flores instead. Jeff Wilpon likely balked on it based on Gomez’s 9 million dollar price tag in 2016.
Had Brewers taken Lagares I am sure the deal would have happened.
“Jeff Wilpon likely balked on it based on Gomez’s 9 million dollar price tag in 2016”
This theory makes no sense unless you have convinced yourself that the payroll isn’t going to break 80 million next year.
It is something to win the national league east, with a barely .500 record (not that I would turn it down) and quite another thing to be…
19 games above .500!
.500 is the pinpoint of mediocrity for baseball. It’s a toss up, any day and depending upon one’s reference point, such as losing season after losing season, it can be the “turned corner” of a franchise. Some of us would have been happy just to have ended the season with a ‘winning’ record.
For clubs used to winning, .500 is a surrender to boredom and uninspired baseball.
Although we would not, at our record, be in the playoffs in other divisions, 19 games above .500 is an accomplishment that takes more than luck.
Once in the playoffs, any of our young arms means that we have a chance.
What a magical season it has been!
I agree they are unlikely to pursue Cespedes, although if they are not bringing back Colon and Murphy, probably not Uribe, and if they can trade Niese, that’s quite an offer they could make for Cespedes. Also I see in MLBTR that Harvey is displeased with some comments from management. I bet they aren’t thrilled with everything he and Boras have had to say either. If they can get a major league shortstop and one or two good young arms, I would trade him. I think we all know he is leaving as soon as he can.
I am enjoying the present and not really pondering the future. This team as presently constituted is a 100 win team.
Sign Cespedes, Johnson and bring up Herrera for 2016.
Sign either Clippard or Reed as the set up man.(both can also close)
Colon, Murphy, Gee, Uribe, Blevins, Gee and Parnell are all above minimum salaried players that should leave.
The 2016 team is set for a 100 win season. 40,000 fans a night and plenty of revenue generated to support the remaining salaries.
Nice job Sandy.
I am going to stick with the present for now.
I’d love to see the Mets sign Cespedes to a 7-year deal for $175. I don’t think it can go much beyond that.
I’m sure another team will pay more. It’s really an advantage for the AL teams, because of the DH. They can manage those last couple of seasons better than their NL counterparts.
If Cespedes is smart, he realizes that he’s built for the NY stage — and that once you get above $150 million, it really doesn’t matter anymore. He should go have a long talk with Jose Reyes and Robinson Cano before he makes any decision based solely on money.
I don’t want Cespedes re-signed to the lucrative deal he will inevitably wants. I mean 7+ years 175+ million sounds too much like Carlos Beltran and dangerously close to Cano/Pujols (obviously Cespedes is a different animal than those two). If Cespedes is willing to bend towards 4-5 million 100-120 million, the Mets retain him.
In regards to next years infield I would re-sign Kelly Johnson for veteran depth, let Uribe retire, and give the double-play combo to Flores and Herrera. In addition, I would release Ruben Tejada and subsequently sign a veteran middle infielder or finally give Matt Reynolds/Wilfredo Tovar a chance to provide depth.
There is an endless amount of options for the outfield, but I would let Nimmo get an opportunity if Cespedes is let go.
Murphy will definitely sign with another club that will give him the due respect he should have gotten in NY. A brutal press and equally critical fans are more than enough to motivate talent to go elsewhere. Murphy’s departure will leave the Mets as a .500 club at best. Unfortunately, Wright’s declining health and all their young pitching talent will depart via free agency and who can blame them. If the Mets don’t win it all this year it will be another 25 years before they have a World Series chance. Good luck Daniel. You were much appreciated and will be missed.
Wow. Duda, TDA, Conforto, an improving Flores (after all he is in his first full year), and some other players that can maybe offer something like Lagares, Herrera, or Cuddyer and Granderson, maybe Cespedes (?) and you are saying Murphy is the difference?
Did you forget that their best two hitters already on the team were out from mid April until late July?
Not only am I excited for this year’s team, but I look forward to next year’s rotation, when hopefully there won’t be talk of innings limits, and Zack Wheeler will come back.
This offseason is going to feature some tough decisions, and the Mets upper management should have some money to spend this offseason. Let’s resign Cespedes, and see what else is out on the market.