On Tuesday night the Yankees and Cubs traded Adam Warren and Brendan Ryan for Starlin Castro. Shortly after that the Braves traded Shelby Miller to the Diamondbacks for Ender Inciarte, Aaron Blair and Dansby Swanson. Prior to these trades there was discussion on the web with experts suggesting that the Mets make an offer for Castro or that they could trade one of their five ace-caliber pitchers for some offensive support.
Matt Cerrone of Metsblog suggested one trade where the Mets could acquire Castro. Who did he suggest we trade in return? Zack Wheeler.
There is a difference in value between Wheeler and Warren. Cerrone is a smart guy and a great writer but he’s fallen into a trap that lots of experts in baseball fall into. If a team is not looking at your top trade chip, they aren’t willing to deal with you. This causes scouts and experts to devalue your top chip to match up with other team’s offerings. Clearly, the Cubs were willing to accept value far below that of Wheeler for their former shortstop.
Another trade possibility that has been floated around the sports world would exist between the Boston Redsox and the New York Mets. Here, the Mets would trade Matt Harvey, whose attitude and proximity to pricing himself off the team has put him in the doghouse with many Met fans. Mark Simon of ESPN opines that Mookie Betts for Harvey would be a “Good Fit” for the Mets. Betts is a quality center fielder who produced well in 2015. His line of .291/.341/.479 is fantastic and his 21 stolen bases would make him the best base stealer on the Mets. As good as Betts is, he’s not equivalent value to Harvey. The Miller trade highlights that well.
The Diamondbacks gave up several players in their deal for Miller. Inciarte, who is inferior to Betts but did manage a more than respectable .747 OPS in his age 24 season, Blair, who pitched well in AAA but likely doesn’t project as better than a #3 pitcher and Swanson, who was the #1 overall pick in the 2015 draft. The net haul for Miller was substantially greater than the proposed “Perfect Fit” and further illustrates the problem. Harvey is a better value than Miller and yet the Mets should expect less for him.
Why?
I enjoyed this article and generally agreed with your points.
But I don’t believe Warren was the Yankees’ top trade chit. I’d want Severino or a healthy Pineda over Warren. I’d certainly want Miller or Betances over him, too.
One of the big frustrations about being a Met fan is what is actually going on in the front office? You would think the Cubs could have gotten more for Castro than Warren and Ryan. Maybe for some reason they just didn’t want to with the Mets.
The Braves have moved so many good young players off their team, nothing they do make any sense to me, outside of cutting costs.
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The Brave trade is colossally in their favor. Sure they are banking on a guy named Danby, but the trade got them a young starter, a starting outfielder and a future star shortstop.
Would the Mets be better had they traded the Cubs Tejada and Niese for Castro?
If you take out the name recognition, Castro is just an awful awful player and it was a terrible deal for the Yankees.
He started out nicely in his first 3 seasons, but he’s peaked early and has been a bad player since, kind of like Elvis Andrus.
His last 3 seasons by OPS+ were 73, 111, 83. Overall, for the last 3 season it’s 89. In comparison, Tejada, who every Met fan loves to rag on, has posted OPS+ of 90 and 94 in the last 2 seasons. Add in the fact that Castro is also a bad defender and has a terrible contract.
It’s a real head scratcher why anyone would even give up anything for him as there’s no reason to take on his contract alone. On the open market, he’d probably get something like 3 years and $30 million. So why would you pay the rest of his contract (4 years and 41 million) plus give a useful player in Warren to get him?
With Didi and Castro, the Yankees will have one of the worst middle infield combos in the game, and a far cry from when they hosted one of the best in Jeter and Cano.
Why? because these are the Mets and they often make mistakes. Seriously thought, I would love to see what the Marlins can get for Fernandez because that would be pretty much what the Mets can get for Harvey after the 2016 season of midway if the Mets are out of it.
This year’s D-backs are sounding a lot like last year’s Padres. Big, flashy moves that ultimately aren’t beneficial for the team in the short term or the long term. They seriously got ripped off on Miller, who they paid for as an ace but whose peripherals suggest he’s closer to a 3 than a 1.
If i had to guess, i think they’ll probably suffer the same fate as the Padres did this year.
Give Cashman credit for pouncing at the right moment. He got Castro at a bargain rate because the Cubs needed to quickly make room for Zobrist. Perhaps if Sandy was well we wouldn’t have been asleep at the wheel while this all transpired.
As a Red Sox fan I wouldn’t want to see a Harvey for Betts trade. Xandy for Harvey okay. Perhaps because he’s my favorite player but I think his potential is too great. For such a little guy the ball absolutely jumps off his bat. After playing second base in the minors he effortlessly switched to CF making only 6 errors in 181 games. He struggled a bit in the middle of the season but then made adjustments. I think he’ll only get better and become an absolute star. In comparison to Harvey he’s nearly 3 years younger and under team control for an extra 2 and doesn’t have attitude question marks.. Harvey will probably be fine health wise for the short term, but you never know down the road w/ the tj history. Though currently the Red Sox could use another stud pitcher like Harvey more than a rising star outfielder, as a fan I see the long term potential of a HOF player and a super likable kid.
The Shelby Miller trade proves that Dave Stewart isn’t a good GM. That’s all it proves.
And the Red Sox are not trading Mookie Betts. I don’t care how good Harvey is, Betts is better, and he’s also not a surgically repaired pitcher who just threw 216 innings in his first season post-TJ, and who has Boras as an agent.