Michael Conforto has been nothing short of a revelation for the Mets as a terrific hitting outfielder. He skyrocketed through the minors in 2015 and became a major part of the late surging Mets, joining the starting lineup through the playoffs.
In 2016 Met fans had sky-high expectations and through March and April, Conforto delivered. Through his first 21 games he’d managed a line of .365/.442/.676 and drove in 18 runs. He also had a .411 BAbip but fans saw only bright days to come in his future. From May on, things have not been bright. That 1.118 OPS of March and April was a mere .591 in May and .419 in June.
What went wrong?
His BAbip took a nose-dive but, more importantly, Conforto lost his confidence. Watching him at the plate through the months of May and June he no longer looked like the confident kid Met fans had been used to seeing since his original promotion. As Keith Hernandez says, “Once your confidence goes, everything goes.” He swung at bad pitches, watching his strikeouts rise and walks diminish.
So what now?
Now, Conforto will go to AAA Las Vegas and hopefully remember what it is to step into a batter’s box like you own the place. He certainly has the talent, we’ve seen that, he just needs to actualize on it and have some faith in his own abilities. The good news is that Las Vegas and the PCL, having inflated stats, should do just that.
What about the other guy?
Who? Jose Reyes? Yes, he’s back in the minors too but it’s a different scenario. Reyes is mostly proving to Sandy Alderson and Terry Collins that he’s in baseball shape. He’ll not be spending too long in the minors but you can bet that I’ll be paying close attention.
AAA: Las Vegas
Brandon Nimmo promoted – I don’t anticipate him to hit the ground running but he deserved a first taste of the big leagues. I expect him to be switching back with Conforto in a few weeks.
Gavin Cecchini looking very put-together – He’s hitting consistently and he’s getting on base all the time.
Kevin Plawecki making the most of it – He’s there to play full-time and he looks very good so far. Outside of Zack Wheeler, Plawecki is likely the Mets biggest trade chip right now.
AA: Binghamton
Amed Rosario starts strong – Rosario is proving that the promotion was a long time overdue by making a big impact in his first games at AA.
Dominic Smith’s new friend – Since Rosario has joined him, Smith is 4 for 11 with 2 home runs.
A+: Port St. Lucie Mets
Somebody save Wuilmer Becerra – After becoming hotter than the deserts of Tatooine he’s become colder than the planet Hoth.
Andrew Church is a prospect again – After doing little to follow up his high draft pick Church is finally beginning to make Alderson look less foolish.
A-: Brooklyn Cyclones
Blake Tiberi has a solid debut – He’s a nice hitter for a team that selected him as late as the Mets did.
Nick Sergakis looks better than 23rd round – He’s off to a very good start but has a very limited ceiling.
Jay Jabs hitting well – It’s all early but Jabs (who has my favorite name to say of the Met draftees) is doing very well.
Merandy Gonzalez might be a big deal – He’s looking like he might be an “Ace” caliber prospect after his first two starts.
Nabil Crismatt arrives – His first outing, in relief was poor but he followed it up with a splendid 3 inning outing that should make everyone a little happier.
R1: Kingsport Mets
Thomas Szapucki looks really good – He pitched one heck of a first game for Kingsport. Only giving up 2 hits over 6 innings and striking out 13 batters.
Conforto just needs to get his confidence back.There is no doubt the guy is a major league hitter.
Two things:
* Read just today that Cecchini made “yet another error” last night. Seems less put-together than you purport;
* Just me, but I have much less faith and interest in BABIP than the writers here at Mets360. At best, it’s a secondary statistic, and not a very good one, prone to all kinds of noise and sample size problems. It’s data, but data is not information, and information is not understanding. I always roll my eyes when all the BABIP talk starts up. Again, that’s just me.
Cecchini’s Errors are up since his offense got in order. Having seen him play in person his fielding looked good. Not sure the issue since last season. (For what it is worth, his AFL fielding was great).
BAbip is a good thing to look at for over-performance indicators. That’s really it.
Totally agree on BABIP, and well-phrased. It’s worth looking to see if anything is wildly off. A lot of BABIP has to do with whether a ball has been well-struck or not, plus foot speed, and the always-present luck factor. I just hate to see it over-emphasized.
Now, about Cecchini. I’ve only seen him play once and thought the arm was unimpressive. He seemed to move well. Looking at stats, he’s made 22 errors this season in 51 starts for a .916 fielding percentage. Last season, when he was only bad, he made 28 errors in 109 starts for a .943 fielding percentage. I don’t know that this guy is a major league shortstop. It’s worth noting that he’s not the kind of talent who makes extremely difficult plays. Doesn’t have great range or big arm. That said, the bat has been very good, though if you move him down the defensive scale, the pressure on the bat becomes greater. On the day he was drafted in the first round, a lot of experts projected him as a utility guy. If he can get the defense under control, maybe he’s a starting SS. If not, he competes with Herrera and Flores for 2B, with no clear winner.
I personally think the defense is alarming. 90 errors in 359 games, or one every four games in his minor league career. I know there are factors that make those numbers a little suspect — don’t want to put too much stock into them — but yes, that’s a big red flag waving in the breeze.
By the way, last night with Bastardo on the mound, the leadoff hitter rolled an ordinary grounder to Reynolds backhand side. Matt made a miserable play on that, taking four more steps toward 3B, turning, and tossing a weak throw to 1B. Runner was safe.
Every SS in the majors has to make that play 99% of the time. Just brutal.
Now Bastardo is responsible for what happened next — the awful balk, the walk, the hit — but that inning began when Matt Reynolds failed to field an ordinary ball to his backhand. No error, nothing marked in the book; just an awful, awful failure defensively. Turning point of the game.
Defense matters.
I remember there was a time when people were miffed at the idea of platooning Conforto. Then there was April when the Mets faced literally 1 or 2 LH starters the whole month and Conforto raked. Since he was raking and the Mets weren’t even facing LHers, this thought sort of went away.
Then came May and the Mets started to get their fair share of lefties, starting with someone named Bumgarner…. I can’t seem to recall the website where it can show batting splits based on custom dates, but for the season Conforto vs LH : .091/.128/.091. That’s 4 singles and 1 walk in 47 PA, probably at least 40 of those PA came after April.
To be sure, he’s struggling against RHP since May as well, but it’s the literally zero production against LHP that’s really killing his overall numbers.