Michael Conforto began his 2016 campaign looking like an All Star in the making. He had debuted in 2015 and contributed to an exciting Met postseason and hit the ground running in 2016. Then what happened? The Mets stopped hitting and Conforto’s numbers began spiraling into a nosedive. The Mets tried giving him a breather and re-promoting him but those efforts seemed to do little to recapture the player fans had glimpsed at the end of 2015 and beginning of 2016.
The Mets did the right thing in demoting Conforto again. He was not adapting and learning in the majors and his confidence was being rapidly destroyed in the process. Back in the PCL, he’s been the Conforto that the Met fans wanted him to be. So why aren’t the Mets rushing to bring him back to the majors?
● MLB: .218/.297/.414 (.710 OPS)
● PCL: .424/.489/.729 (1.218 OPS)
So, what’s the difference between the PCL and the MLB?
As a team, the 2016 Las Vegas 51s are hitting the snot out of the ball. Their team OPS is .817 which is a staggering figure and ridiculous when you consider that’s only second in the league. Meanwhile the Mets OPS is nearly .100 lower with their OPS of .722.
So, can’t you just lower Conforto’s OPS by .100 and plug him into the Met lineup? You and I both wish. The difference goes far deeper than any simple equation, like that. The MLB has a higher caliber of pitcher, ones who know how to adapt to batters by watching the tapes. The MLB also has a higher caliber of batter. Remember, if it’s possible, that our MLB hitters would proportionately better if they were also allowed to feast on PCL pitching in ballparks where the ball is known to travel.
So, what should we expect from Conforto?
The expectations haven’t changed but the ETA has. The Mets need Conforto to work his way back into the Met lineup in his own time. Frankly, at some point even Terry Collins will be forced to bench Curtis Granderson and that’s when Conforto will next get his call. Now that MLB pitchers have adapted to him, he’s got to make the changes to his approach to adapt to their adaptations. If he does, he’ll be that star we needed and if he doesn’t we’ll find that star elsewhere. In the meantime, he’s absolutely destroying the PCL which is better than him scuffling there too.
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AAA: Las Vegas 51s
Brandon Nimmo, Gavin Cecchini and Kevin Plawecki are also taking advantage of the PCL – In their last 10 games they are hitting .395, .429 and .368 respectively. As mentioned above, it’s hard to say what this exactly translates into in the majors but I’m beginning to pencil Cecchini as the salvation should the Mets lose Neil Walker.
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AA: Binghamton Mets
Amed Rosario is not a finished product – He still has a flaw with his game that is going to show up in a major way if and when he reaches the majors. He needs to cut down his strikeouts before we get too excited.
Dominic Smith sees one stat rising – After a disapointing April and May Smith’s line has been steadily on the rise but in August his OBP has been almost .70 higher than his highest month this season. This month he’s been walking more and striking out less.
Phillip Evans has been good in AA – Nobody is going to get to overboard excited over Evans but he’s been good for Binghamton in 2016.
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A+: Port St. Lucie Mets
P.J. Conlon is back on the mound – He’s recovered from his brief injury and is back to pitching wonderfully.
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A: Columbia Fireflies
Eudor Garcia strating to hit again – It’s hard to forgive players who serve PED suspensions but if Garcia become a strong 3B prospect again, we’ll all forgive and forget.
Patrick Mazeika is making up for lost time – He’s the best hitter in the Firefly lineup and if he had been healthy all season he’d be in Port St. Lucie.
Nabil Crismatt is still worthy of praise – That under-sized righty with so-so stuff just struck out another 10 batters over 7.0 innings on 8/26.
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A-: Brooklyn Cyclones
Peter Alonso is a real hitter – Hitting does not come easy in Brooklyn but Alonso is making it look very natural.
Justin Dunn’s best outing so far – Another 3.0 inning start but he only gave up 1 hit and 1 walk while striking out 5.
Not sure why you think SOs are such a big issue with Rosario. Please explain.
When I scouted him live I watched him swing from his heals a few times and described him more as a swinger than a hitter. He’s cut down his free swinging but he’s had multiple weeks this season where he’s had more Ks than games played. Overall he’s still our top prospect but the strikeouts are reason to temper the excitement.
Conforto has to bat second when he comes up. Hitting between Reyes and Cespedes will get him more fastballs. Knowing that curveballs don’t curve as well in Vegas is right up Conforto’s alley, because the low curves were killing him in the majors. That’s the hole he needs to plug.
It’s not a bad option.
When I watched Conforto in Brooklyn I was impressed at his ability to hit to contact.
I like the idea.
Conforto should be up today taking Montero’s spot on the roster and told that he is going to play everyday irregardless. Just look at the past 30 games:
DeAza 684 OPS, Granderson 569 OPS, Bruce 642 OPS
What do you got to lose?
I was able to get out to see the Columbia Fireflies twice in the past two weeks, once in Asheville and once in Columbia. Garcia is now playing first base and his bat has come around like last year. The third baseman, Luis Ortega, has a cannon for an arm and the shortstop, Milton Ramos, ranged as well as a good major leaguer on pop ups. Neither one can hit. Mazaika also looked solid as a hitter. Andrew Church pitched well in the Asheville game before tiring.
Spirit Communication Park in Columbia is the best minor league park I have ever been to. The concourse wraps around the whole stadium, there are “perches” that overhang in CF, there are real rocking chairs as seats, a 32 tap bar in CF, a kids bounce area, another craft beer bar behind home, tasty vendor push cart like food concessions and no matter where you are you can still watch the game. The scoreboard is state of the art with instant replay, and constantly changing info like who is due up, previous at bats, what year and round drafted, etc. A truly sensational experience.
Sounds like I need a road trip to SC.
Thanks for the in-person scouting!
While Charlie is correct about the Continental Divide between Vegas and Flushing, there’s only one reason why Conforto is down on the farm: Jay Bruce. Which is another way of saying: Sandy Alderson.
Conforto will be up in two days. He’ll get irregular play and we’ll all be frustrated.
I don’t see it being solved this season, but I hope the organization gets behind him over the winter with full support. That means clearing out some obstacles, Granderson (if possible, though may need to wait until July), and Bruce.
No illusions. Conforto needed to be sent down the first time. But the second call-up and demotion was unfair and counter-productive. He was competing and showing signs of progress. But Sandy had a thing for Bruce — gave up two prospects (I think Wotell is a guy to follow, hard-throwing LHP) — and brushed Conforto aside.
Conforto still can’t hit that hard, elbow-high, inside fastball. And as Gus said, he’s been vulnerable on the diving inside curveball. But I believe.
Bruce is the problem.
Yes, Bruce is the problem – in more ways than one.
I read that the Mets were looking for a new location for their AAA team. Vegas is too far to shuttle players back and forth. The PCL also has inflated hitting stats and inflated ERA’s, so it is difficult to judge the real talent of a player. The league learned real fast that he cant hit lefties and he struggles with curve balls, so it was no surprise, while he was up, when I watched him that all he saw was off speed pitches. Several years ago, I watched Yankees prospect Drew Henson struggle at Durham. He couldn’t hit the curve ball. His career didn’t last too long.
The brick hard infield in Vegas also contributes, to the slow defensive improvement of infielders, and tough to judge their defensive abilities..
If Cespedes comes back next year I believe both Bruce and Granderson have to go. I love Grandy, but he no longer works for this team.
Regardless of Cespedes, Granderson should not be on the roster in 2017.
If Cespedes comes back than the Mets also need to move on from Bruce.
Conforto is the power lefty bat for the Met outfield. Assuming Juan Lagares can come back healthy I’d be interested in seeing a Met outfield of:
Left Field: Michael Conforto
Center Field: Juan Lagares/Brandon Nimmo (Platoon)
Right Field: Yoenis Cespedes
The big issue is the Mets finding solutions for the infield.
Jose Reyes appears to be part of that plan but unless Wilmer Flores can suddenly become the hitter I once dreamed of the Mets have no good solution for right-handed power.
Perhaps (and this is a pipe dream) the Mets could move Bruce for an infielder to cover that hole.
Probably premature to get into this — wow, what a game last night — but Bruce is a possibility for 1B.
Interesting to see how Mets handle Duda. He’s arbitration eligible, but to date Sandy has proved to be not a fan of the non-tender option.
Because of the back and lost season, Duda is a real question mark for next season. Not an easy guy to trade. I’m not sure what Sandy will do here. He almost never gives guys up for nothing. There’s logic in keeping Duda, establishing health, then trading him, but there’s considerable danger, too. He could go down to injury. There’s great risk in counting on him. And Duda’s presence, even short-term, would make it difficult for Bruce to learn the position during the Spring. I kind of just want him to go away.
Unloading Grandy will not be easy. No one wants anything close to that contract. I could live with him for half-a-season in a backup role, some CF, some corner time. The problem is that TC might use his presence to take ABs from Conforto (who must play RF, w/ Cespedes happy in LF).
I could imagine the Mets starting the 2017 season with Bruce and Granderson on the team. Not advocating for it, but I could imagine Sandy going that way. It’s scary to picture a lineup w/ Duda, Bruce, and Curtis. But if anybody in the world thinks that might be an acceptable idea, it’s Sandy Alderson.
Jimmy P- you and I are on the same page again. I love Duda and Grandy – 2 of my favorite Mets, but at least one of them is gonna have to go. My fear with Duda is that he’ll finally become Adam Dunn and hit 40 homers for another team.