The Mets drafted Justin Dunn 19th overall in this year’s draft. Dunn is a 6’1” pitcher who has a 99 MPH fastball who the Mets expect to be a “Fast-Track” to the majors as a starter or high-leverage reliever. He was assigned to Brooklyn and has been pitching is steady 3.0 inning bursts since 7/23. The Mets seem to be stretching Dunn out slowly but the important thing is that his results have been stellar.
Through 27.0 total innings, he’s kept his WHIP low (1.19) and he’s struck out 33 batters and given up only 22 hits and 10 walks. He’s only given up only four runs and has a crisp 1.33 ERA to his credit.
As a college pitcher, you should expect this level of success in Brooklyn but it’s good to see that he’s not stumbled so far.
If you want to look for a flaw, there is the fact that he’s hit five batters. That’s a strange outlier statistic but with the 10 walks and five hit batters control does seem to be a reason for concern.
The future plan for Dunn will likely see him beginning 2017 in Port St. Lucie where he will be stretched into pitching 5-7 innings per outing. If all goes well there is reason to think that he can finish the year in Binghamton and start 2018 with the hopes of making an MLB impact.
There is a lot that can go wrong for Dunn between Brooklyn and Queens but his first step in the road has gone very well.
AAA: Las Vegas 51s
Brandon Nimmo is rolling – He’ll be back in the majors as soon as the PCL wraps up and he’s finishing strong.
Gavin Cecchini has 18 more hits – In his last 10 games he has 18 hits and a .429 batting average. Talk to me about the PCL and how his stats don’t mean anything and I’ll remind you how broken Neil Walker’s back is.
Andrew Church makes a surprise outing – He only lasted 4.0 innings and they didn’t go well but his success in Columbia must have gotten someone’s attention.
AA: Binghamton Mets
Amed Rosario plays that same song – He notches 14 more hits but also notches 15 more strikeouts.
A+: Port St. Lucie Mets
David Thompson remembers he has power – 4 home runs in the past 10 games have more than doubled his FSL total this season.
P.J. Conlon continues his solid season – 5.0 IP with 1 hit and 7 strikeouts.
A: Columbia Fireflies
Patrick Mazeicka could be a very useful hitter – The Mets have reason to hope for big things from this catching prospect based on his results (when he’s been healthy).
Nabil Crismatt turns out another nice start – Another good outing by Crismatt seems to indicate that the scouts might need to reevaluate his stuff.
A-: Brooklyn Cyclones
Peter Alonso has hitter written all over him – He keeps hitting week in and week out and it’s looking like he’s not planning to stop.
Merandy Gonzalez has established a good trend – His last two outings have both seen eight strikeouts for him.
R1: Kingsport Mets
Ricardo Cespedes is young and talented – At 19 years of age, it is anyone’s guess who or what Cespedes will become but his second stint on a stateside team has gone well.
I like the Dunn pick. Like Nimmo, he seems like a big upside guy. And I like how he’s pitching three innings at a time. Do you recall them doing that with someone before? They do one inning at a time – like P.J. Conlon last year – but I don’t recall three innings.
Crismatt’s last start came in Double-A. Not bad for a guy who started the year in Brooklyn.
I heard you say this before about Nimmo, but I’ve never understood it. Why do you consider him a “high upside” pick? I never did.
When I think I upside, I tend to see an extremely toolsy but unrefined player — a guy who could, if everything breaks right, be a star. Big raw talent. With, perhaps, a higher possibility of flaming out.
Nimmo is the opposite of that picture. Not saying he can’t be a star, but that he’s not very strong, not very fast, not a great glove. More noted, in fact, for his “advanced” approach than his raw skills.
Anyway, maybe it’s a terminology issue. I never saw the high upside.
I believe you are asking this question in all sincerity. I’m going to try to respond in a like matter.
When the Nimmo pick was made in 2011, the overwhelming theme of the pick was that he was not as refined as a typical first-round pick but that he was a five-tool player because of his overall athleticism. Here’s a quote from Andy McCullough, of the Newark Star-Ledger, on July 17, 2011:
“Brandon Nimmo, the 18-year-old Wyoming native whom the Mets took in the first round of this year’s draft, is described as a five-tool player.”
http://www.nj.com/mets/index.ssf/2011/07/mets_draft_pick_brandon_nimmo.html
Here’s what David Rawnsley, of Perfect Game, said on June 2, 2011:
“What they’ve seen is a very talented all-around athlete with surprisingly-polished hitting skills from the left side. Nimmo has very advanced barrel skills, squares up pitches consistently and can drive them to the gaps. His easy stride and plus speed (Nimmo is a Wyoming indoor state track champion) result in numerous doubles and triples now that should evolve into home runs in the future as he fills out and gets stronger.”
http://www.perfectgame.org/Articles/View.aspx?article=5791
Here’s what Will Lingo, of Baseball America, said on May 25, 2011:
“With a lean, 6-foot-3 frame with projection remaining, he’s a good athlete and one of the best sprinters in the state. He tore his right ACL playing football during his junior year in 2009 and spent most of last summer playing with a brace on his knee. He’s an above-average runner when he’s healthy, which helps him on the basepaths and in center field, and there’s more to his game than just speed. Nimmo has a pretty, efficient lefthanded swing. He’s short to the ball and has outstanding barrel awareness, consistently squaring balls up and shooting line drives to all fields. He has a good eye at the plate and should be an above-average hitter. As he gets stronger, he could add loft to his swing to turn doubles into home runs.”
http://www.baseballamerica.com/online/draft/draft-preview/2011/2611783.html#37
Baseball, football and track. The idea that he wasn’t an all-around athlete is a mistake. They loved the athleticism, especially the speed, and thought that there was projection remaining. Furthermore, the belief was that the swing was there and that the power would come. If everything broke right, he would have been a 30-30 guy. Everything didn’t break right. Not many hit their upside and he’s still going to have an MLB career.
You’re saying he’s not very strong and he’s not very fast. From an MLB perspective, I think that’s 100% accurate here in 2016. But it’s simply not an accurate portrayal of conventional wisdom back in 2011.
Edit: Perfect Game link
Yeah, I read all that and still don’t think he was ever high upside. The speed was wildly over-stated and basically BS, the arm is “meh,” and the “polished” approach was already noted. The advanced skills diminished the “high upside” aspect, since he was already getting a lot out of what he had. His refinement, in fact, is what got him drafted in that slot.
I mean, sure, he was drafted #12 overall, so in that sense you can make a “high upside” comment on almost any pick in that level.
But again, to me, he’s not at all — at all — what I consider a “high upside” draft pick. To put it in the abstract, a “high upside” pick is the kid who throws 99 MPH but doesn’t know where it’s going and can’t quite get the hang of a consistent secondary pitch . . . yet. He’s not a kid, in this example, that anyone would refer to as polished. That type of raw talent has high upside, but also a higher probability of flaming out. Aaron Hicks, to pick a different player. The ability is threw the roof.
Hey Jimmy,
I understand your feelings that you are generally down on Nimmo but when he was drafted he was 100% a “high upside” pick. As I wrote when he was drafted, we couldn’t know if he’d bulk up and get some power or harness his speed to be a stolen base/leadoff guy.
He’s kinda done neither as he’s stayed middle of the road. He’s fast but doesn’t steal bases and he has some power but not enough to warrant excitement. The Mets had hoped that they might have a 30/30 player in Nimmo but instead he looks like more of a 15/15.
In hindsight, the speed was overstated. But when talking about his 2011 upside, hindsight is the wrong tool to use. In hindsight, the power was overstated. In hindsight, it’s very possible the defense was overstated.
But there’s little doubt that at the time he was drafted, he was forecasted to have above average speed, power and defense, even if those things hadn’t been on full display in his American Legion career.
Ok…lets Ring The Bell for Tom Nido as well— 22 year Catcher with an .816 OPS and a Batting Title at St. Lucie.
I’m not troubled by the prospective conversions of Hitter stats from Vegas to MLB. Cheech and Nimmo are near/at the top of the league—that generally is an indicator, and I’d expect some of that to stick going forward with them, and the hitters that follow them. Being better than the competition is a good sign.
The physical and mental strain on pitchers is a much bigger concern than their statistical results at Vegas.God can’t hit a 1 Iron!!!…and God probably can;t throw a Curve Ball or develop an off-speed repertoire in Vegas. That is the single biggest negative impact to their Vegas location. Pitchers are under heavier strain, and they’re stilted in their off-speed development. AAA is for honing and developing experience with your MLB Mix…you can’t throw your mix or develop it in Vegas!!!
Yet the Mets have promoted Syndergaard, Matz, Lugo, Gsellman and others from Las Vegas.
Fun to watch these guys develop.
Unlike some teams, Mets don’t do a lot of hyping of their prospects (talking about you Dodgers) so we always seem surprised when these guys come up and succeed.
I find the exact opposite to be true and i’m much more concerned about the hitters than pitchers.
Pitchers are humbled by Vegas (and fan expectations are lowered) and when they come up, they seem to be fine.
Hitters egos and fan expectations are over-inflated (as demonstrated by your comment about Nimmo and Cecchini) and fans are disappointed when they find that some hitter who is batting .400+ in Vegas can’t even crack the Mendoza line in the majors. I don’t believe the Mets have one single hitter make a decent transition from Vegas the majors in their 4 year partnership. Before you say Conforto, remember that he skipped AAA last year. The best is probably TDA, but he really was there because he couldn’t stay healthy and needed rehab time.
Nimmo came in second to the PCL batting crown to his team mate TJ Rivera.
Does he have anything more to prove on the AAA level? Could be start off as the LHB centerfield platoon with Lagares? Is that already Conforto’s spot on the roster? There is a large crowd in the 2017 Met outfield that Sandy should address this winter.