The New York Mets head into the 2017 season with four of the five starting pitching spots taken by young stars. However three of the four young stars are coming of injury with Noah Syndergaard being the lone exception. If everything goes as planned and Matt Harvey, Jacob DeGrom, and Steven Matz all return healthy from injury at the start of the season it still leaves the Mets with a hole at the fifth starter position with the departure of their most reliable starter of the last three seasons Bartolo Colon. Lets take a look at some options available to the Mets to fill the role.
Internal Options:
The team has a couple of internal options to fill the position including last years rookie phenoms Robert Gsellman and Seth Lugo. Gsellman and Lugo both came into last season as moderate prospects who had decent stuff but were not considered major league caliber pitchers quite yet. Multiple injuries to proven starters in the Mets rotation forced them into action and both pitchers flourished in their respective first seasons in the majors. While Lugo’s advanced stats did not bode quite as well as his results, Gsellman’s advanced metrics actually matched up nicely, with a strikeout to walk ratio of 42/15 in 44 2/3 innings pitched with a 2.42 ERA. Yet another internal option is Zack Wheeler. Wheeler at times looked like the dominant ace starter he was touted to be, while other times had difficulty finding the handle on his pitches which led to extremely high pitch counts and relatively short outings. All of this of course was two full seasons ago when he was last able to pitch in the majors, rumors of him pitching out of the bullpen have also been popping up as of late, but lets see if he can stay healthy enough to pitch effectively before he is thrown into action multiple times a week coming out of the pen.
External Options:
While the starting pitching free agent market isn’t exactly ripe with talent there are a few options hanging around on the open market who could make more than adequate fifth starters on a potential playoff contender. Ivan Nova a former Yankee who had a strong resurgence with the Pirates after a mid season trade is one option, however with his success and past seasons numbers may require a more substantial financial commitment than the Mets are comfortable with. Tyson Ross presents and interesting opportunity, after being non-tendered by the Padres he is available although he is also coming off of a shoulder injury and would present a fairly strong risk of missing significant time this season. There is also the trade route to consider with the Tampa Bay Rays and the Chicago White Sox looking to move starters. The Rays seem to be the more likely match for the Mets as the White Sox asking price for Quintana is known to be extremely high. The Rays have several pitchers including Drew Smyly and Jake Odorizzi available, of these two Smyly seems like the more likely candidate for the Mets to target. It would all depend upon the asking price for the left hander and the Mets willingness to part with prospects necessary to pry him from Tampa Bay.
It would seem as of right now the more likely scenario would be for the Mets to stick with one of the three internal options of Gsellman, Lugo, or Wheeler with Gsellman seeming to be the early favorite. Unless the Mets shed some excess payroll by dealing either Jay Bruce or Curtis Granderson it would seem they are more likely to go with the internal option.
I just don’t see them going outside with so many internal options unless of course things don’t go along as planned
I tend to agree with you, I just thought that there were some interesting outside options on the open market.
McCutchen? Any new news? He’d be a great get.
Depends on what you’re giving up.
I want to see Gsellman in the rotation and Wheeler in the bullpen to open the season. Wheeler moves into the rotation when someone gets hurt or Gsellman fails.
This. And Seth Lugo for long relief and insurance in case two starters get injured
My concern about Wheeler in the ‘pen: I worry about TC’s propensity to fall in love with long(-ish) relievers for over-long periods.
I agree with you, Brian, but I have a concern. There’s no depth beyond the guys mentioned. With Colon and Niese gone our backup to the backup guys are Sean Gilmartin, Rafael Montero and Gabriel Ynoa – who all flopped last year. Don’t forget the trickle down of pitching injuries. When injuries push your 6th and 7th guys into the rotation, guys get called up from AAA to take their spots in the pen. I really don’t like the depth we have in Vegas to start the season. Hoping that, in addition to bringing back Blevins and Salas or reasonable facsimiles, the Mets can also pick up a few useful arms to stash in Vegas.
I have no concerns about Alderson adding a depth starter or two. It’s only December.
Yes, Brian. I know it doesn’t make for the most exciting hot stove discussion, but I think that’s a need that I hope Alderson does not overlook.
not crazy about seeing Wheeler in the pen until he can show control in 1 inning. Mostly his first innings have been 25 pitch misadventures, which makes me troubled that he will be a bit of a mess in relief. He really doesnt settle down until the 3rd inning.
Even the crappiest SP can become solid RP.
In his career in the first inning, Wheeler has allowed 17 BB in 203 PA, which isn’t a disaster. Opponents have a .214/.281/.368 line against him in the first inning.
I’d look to start him with clean innings whenever possible.
Wheeler has the kind of Lights Out top end that would play very well in the Bullpen.
I love Wheeler — the raw talent, the swing-and-miss quality — and I think he’d be great in the pen if the arm is sound and has bounce back-ability.
He is going to walk too many guys, at times. Big deal.
From the constant complaints about him, it’s pretty obvious who would have been eager to trade away Nolan Ryan. Or Ron Darling, for that matter.
Wheeler, if healthy, is a huge asset.
If I were a veteran “reclamation SP”, I’d sign a Minor League with opt Out with the Mets in 2 minutes…… 4 starters who did not finish the season Pitching???? That’s a Golden opportunity.
I know teams hate to provide these opt out options, but it’s a great way to convince guys to allow the Mets to have some depth, if needed.
I would really like to see Wheeler as the fifth starter if healthy and if not then go with Gsellman who looks to have really good stuff.