Mets Minors: Top 10 prospects report card

Every offseason we go through and rank the top 50 Met prospects. With the 2017 minor league season in the books let’s review how our Top 10 players did for themselves.

Amed Rosario: A-

Rosario started his season blazing hot and one might wonder if the Mets might have fell so far if the team was more willing to promote a player and risk Super Two status. Instead the Mets held Rosario in AAA where he produced well in an environment that didn’t seem to challenge him offensively. The Mets eventually, too late, promoted him to the majors where Rosario is currently working to ready himself for the 2018 season.

Dominic Smith: A

While many scouts worry about Smith’s weight and lack of power numbers his performance in 2017 was excellent and led the Mets to eventually trade (give away) Lucas Duda. Smith has been showing some potential in his brief time in the majors thus far but many still wonder if his bat is strong enough to be carried as a starting first baseman.

Thomas Szapucki: C-*

He began the year on the disabled list and ended there as well. The pitcher looked good in the few starts he had in between but many might wonder if his attempt to rehab instead of opting for surgery might cost him his 2018 season as well.

Gavin Cecchini: D

Prior to the season some scouts had begun penciling in the name Cecchini on the 2018 starting infield. Thanks to a decidedly mediocre showing in AAA the Mets are more likely to acknowledge that he’s never going to amount to more than a backup infielder. With Wilmer Flores on the team, this still makes him have some value but his performance in 2017 was a let down.

Justin Dunn: F-

It might be harsh to rate a prospect like this but nothing about Dunn’s 2017 season was promising of positive. The pitcher lacked control, didn’t manage to maintain a solid strikeout ratio and was demoted to the bullpen at one point. Dunn will likely drop to the very back of the Top 10 of most Met lists in 2018. A position that might be generous.

Desmond Lindsay: F

Either something was wrong with him from the start of the season or he has some terrible luck. When Lindsay finally started snapping out of a season long slump he went down with a season ending injury. It’s going to be hard to keep Lindsay in the Top 10 based upon his performance as a prospect.

P.J. Conlon: B

His year in AA was pretty smooth sailing with the Mets transitioning him to the bullpen with an eye to 2018. Conlon had a few rough starts but looked sharp for most of 2017. He appears destined to be in competition for the 2018 bullpen though he could be sent to AAA to provide rotational depth.

Marcos Molina: B-

Mostly good things for Molina who ended the year in AA. He didn’t out pitch Corey Oswalt, Chris Flexen or Conlon but he did pitch well enough to return to AA in the 2018 season as the likely Ace of the staff. There is still plenty of reason to maintain optimism on Molina as he progresses.

Peter Alonso: A

Not only did he earn a promotion to AA but he recovered from a significant slump to end the year with pretty superlative numbers. Alonso may have even jumped Smith on some scouting depth charts. He’s the most likely name to top many Top Mets Prospect rankings this offseason.

Wuilmer Becerra: D-

While he wasn’t as bad as his teammate, Dunn, his 2017 season is one that likely buys him a ticket out of the Top 10 rankings. Dwindling contact numbers and soaring strikeout totals will do that to a hitter who cannot consistently show either power or speed in Advanced A. His value isn’t gone but he’s got to climb out of a serious hole.

14 comments for “Mets Minors: Top 10 prospects report card

  1. Steve S.
    September 11, 2017 at 9:56 am

    I’m really optimistic about Alonso, who has showed good power and on-base abilities in the minors. Smith has looked a lot better in the majors, so we may have two really good, young first basemen now.

    Rosario—like Smith—needs time to adjust to MLB pitching, and seems to be doing better, as well.

    Phil Evans looks like he can hit with line-drive power (admittedly in only a couple of at bats). I’d hate to lose him in the Rule 5 draft. Time for Terry to give him some starts!

  2. Russ
    September 11, 2017 at 10:17 am

    Nice drafting by Sandy………what a disgrace.

    • David Groveman
      September 11, 2017 at 10:36 am

      Lindsay and Dunn make this group particularly ugly.

  3. Met for life
    September 11, 2017 at 11:18 am

    I have hope for Lindsay but Dunn looks like a bust.

  4. Pete from NJ
    September 11, 2017 at 12:42 pm

    Isn’t Wuilmer Becerra on the 40 man roster? Presents an unfortunate move last winter and a one less spot for the youngsters this December.

    • September 11, 2017 at 1:26 pm

      He is currently on the 40-man but can easily be removed without fear of being lost. The market for 22-year-old OFers in Hi-A with a .667 OPS just isn’t that robust.

  5. TexasGusCC
    September 11, 2017 at 1:40 pm

    Your grading is spot on! Cheers!

  6. Jimmy p
    September 11, 2017 at 2:06 pm

    Solid post, thanks for the work.

    I think you are exceptionally clear-eyed and tough-minded in your evaluations, which really separates you from the usual fanboy prospect posts on the Metsblogosphere.

    • David Groveman
      September 11, 2017 at 2:43 pm

      You know that I prefer to focus on the good but sometimes we need to recognize the bad.

  7. Chris F
    September 11, 2017 at 3:26 pm

    Thanks for the assessments that meet “what we see” for those we have the possibility to see, and which otherwise jive with the results we can all glean. Smith is such a confusing player.

    Elsewhere, I read that Lagares is quite possibly the *best* centerfielder in baseball. Even a fan boy like me cant even go near that.

    All in all, the current assessment is a bit disappointing. With all the redundant middle infielders, do you have a prediction what we do with Flores, Reynolds, Cheech, TJ, Reyes, and Cabrera, three of which are basically minor leaguers, all fighting for 2 spots? Surely, this can’t possibly drag on?

    • David Groveman
      September 11, 2017 at 4:13 pm

      Wilmer Flores – Starting Second Baseman
      Matt Reynolds – Depth or Drop
      Gavin Cecchini – MLB Bench
      T.J. Rivera – MLB Bench
      Asdrubal Cabrera – Let him walk

      I’ll probably do a post during the off season with how I’d allocate everyone.

      I still believe the Mets need to spend money on Mike Moustakas, possibly a center fielder whose bat translates to an everyday role and ideally a catcher who could be relied on more than Travis d’Arnaud.

      What this list doesn’t show is the progress made by Corey Oswalt and Chris Flexen and some of the positive movement from lower down in the farm.

      That said,

      This was a bad year up and down the board.

      • Rae
        September 12, 2017 at 11:07 am

        The Mets do not have an everyday 3B guy so it would make sense to keep Cabrera as he plays a pretty decent 3b, 2b and can start couple of games at SS if need be, and also play 1B in a pinch. Cabrera will hit 250-ish with 15-to-20 HRs. He doesn’t have any speed but he knows how to run the bases for his lack of quickness. I say we keep Cabs and keep Evans as another 3B element who can also play a bit of 2b and SS too. What the Mets do need to do is make sure that Luis Guillorme becomes the back up infielder because the guy can catch, throw, run, and has been able to get on base while hitting from the left hand side. I think the Mets are looking for Maizeka’s throwing to improve and once he capitalizes on that he and Plawecki will be the catching tandem cause d’Arnaud just can’t throw out runners trying to steal. The Mets also have Nido who is a good defensive catcher, and Domino who is making his way up the minor league ladder. If I was the Mets I would trade d’Anaud to an American League team, as he just does not have the throwing ability to be a National league catcher.

        • David Groveman
          September 12, 2017 at 11:15 am

          The only problem with this plan is that the Mets will not be World Series contenders while they retain control over all of their “Ace” pitchers. If the Mets want to compete in 2018 then they need to acquire a plus hitting third baseman, such as Mike Moustakas.

          D’Arnaud also does not have much trade value.

  8. Bob S
    September 13, 2017 at 4:46 pm

    I’ve been a Met fan since 1967 and this year, with the injuries and low performance by some high paid players has been a real test to my loyalty. I now live in Ohio in Reds country and have difficulty rooting for the Mets even with the poor play of Cincinnati – anyway my thoughts for what they are worth:
    1. Buy out David Wrights contract – get him off the books – medically he will not come back close to the player he was. 2) Get a 3rd basemen – Mustakas would be great and fits well with the Mets (or trade for Baltimore’s 3rd basement – offer them Harvey and a lower level pitcher). 3) Get rid of Harvey – trade him to the AL – his head will never be back in NY and Boras will force us to overpay. 4) Need a catcher desperately 5) Think about putting Matz in the bullpen 6)Acquire a starting pitcher 7) let Flores be the full time 2nd Baseman – his bat is justifying playing him more 8) Collins needs to go – I feel that if they hadn’t got into the world series he would have been gone in 2015. 9) Bruce wants to come back – resign him and move Conforto into CF. 10) Stop screwing with the lineup – decide who’s going to play where which can only help their defense

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