Mets Minors: A package for J.T. Realmuto

In listening to the radio pundits over the past few week, I’ve begun to get annoyed with a trend I’ve witnessed. These experts do not think the Mets have what it takes to trade with the Marlins for J.T. Realmuto and they back these claims up with little actual information of the Met minor league players. Meanwhile fans have called in proclaiming that they have the trade package in mind to get the Marlins to sign off. Now, those who suggest that the Marlins would trade Realmuto for Matt Harvey, Juan Lagares or Brandon Nimmo are equally misguided in what the Marlins might actually want. So, do the Mets have what the Marlins might want and what are those players?

To understand what the Marlins might want, let’s look at some of their recent moves.

12/7/17 – Marlins Trade: Dee Gordon for Nick Neidert, Robert Dugger and Chris Torres

In this deal they acquired a pitcher who hasn’t pitched well in AA, a reliever and a distant hitting prospect for a 2B/OF with tremendous speed who they couldn’t afford to keep and who was near the end of his contract. Basically the Marlins got little more than a possible backend starter and a lottery ticket.

12/11/17 – Marlins Trade: Giancarlo Stanton for Starlin Castro, Jorge Guzman and Jose Devers

Again, we aren’t talking apples and apples. Stanton was a player that the team could not afford and they got a major league player the Yankees didn’t need and two meaningless prospects. Clearly this isn’t a great example.

12/14/17 Marlins Trade Marcell Ozuna for Daniel Castano, Magneuris Sierra, Sandy Alcantara and Zac Gallen

This is a little more telling. The Marlins were trading a younger player who was someone they could “technically” afford and they got a better package. Castano appears to be a competent lefty starter who has some potential, Sierra is a major league ready outfielder who doesn’t seem to have a ton of star potential, Alcantra is a major league ready back-end starter, and Gallen was a fast-tracked starter who should also be in the majors shortly. Here, we see the Marlins looking for players who appear to not be terribly far away from the majors.

1/25/18 Marlins Trade Christian Yelich for Lewis Brinson, Isan Diaz, Monte Harrison and Jordan Yamamoto

The best gauge of what the Marlins would want would be this final trade. While Realmuto should command less of a haul than Yelich, the Marlins were now trading from a position of power. Brinson was the star in the package, a player who has appeared in the Top 100 prospects multiple times and one who was ready for the majors. Meanwhile Diaz is a tempting infield prospect who has an equal amount of flaws and upside, Harrison appears to have five tools and was coming off a strong year in A and Advanced A and Yamamoto is coming off a solid season in Advanced A himself.

What do the Mets have that could compare to this last offer? Could they make an offer for 1.8 seasons of Realmuto catching?

The problem that most people see is the lack of a centerpiece. The Mets have Dominic Smith and Peter Alonso but the Mets want to hold onto the latter and the Marlins may not have interest in the former. Instead the Mets would need to consider adding a player like Andres Gimenez, which they would be loath to do.

Yet what many people are forgetting is that the Brewers have Yelich for four seasons and Reamuto isn’t on the books for nearly that long. The Mets don’t need to have a Brinson, they simply need a prospect that has elite potential. So here is my package:

Justin Dunn – Former top pick for the Mets, Dunn gives the Marlins upside and a prospect with the potential to be a front-end starter in a few seasons.
Corey Oswalt – While I’d prefer to give up others the Marlins deserve the best of the Mets back-end (major league ready) starters.
Drew Smith – One of the relievers acquired in 2017, Smith has potential and isn’t miles away from being ready to contribute.
P.J. Conlon – The Mets don’t like pitchers like Conlon and he’s most likely a trade chip at this point.

Three players with potential to make an impact on the 2018 season and a higher ceiling pitcher for their catcher who has been vocal in his wishes to be moved? Maybe it isn’t what the Marlins want, but it’s more than they got for other players they traded.

AAA:

Zach Borenstein isn’t a prospect but he’s hitting – If you are looking to find the offensive star for Vegas, it’s Borenstein.

David Thompson is still lacking his typical power – He’s hitting .313 over his last 10 game but has no home runs.

Dominic Smith isn’t doing enough with his bat – He’s got 12 walks in the past 10 games and 15 strikeouts and needs to start putting bat to ball.

Luis Guillorme isn’t hitting enough – He’s not doing terribly but he needs to produce more in the PCL for me to have faith he can hit in the majors.

Tim Peterson is ready for the majors – He has a K/9 near 18.0 and he’s found his footing in AAA.

AA:

Peter Alonso is looking like a superstar – If there is one player to get excited about based upon the early season, it’s Alonso.

Nabil Crismatt throws another gem – Another great outing for Crismatt on 4/20.

Tyler Bashlor looking good – He’s gotta be close to a promotion to AAA.

Adonis Uceta is settling in – He’s looking like he was ready for AA and that’s good to see.

A+:

Ian Strom continuing his strong start – It’s getting more and more likely that I’ll need to do some deep research on Strom if he keeps this up.

Andres Gimenez fixes the Ks but stops hitting – He’s finding his footing and hasn’t hit his stride.

A:

Blake Tiberi controls the strike zone – So many walks are making his OBP look phenomenal.

Scott Manea off to a good start – He’s got a 1.100 OPS through his first 10 games.

Walter Rasquin has come on strong – The second baseman is getting on base, showing some speed and stealing a few bases. All great to see!

Jeremy Vasquez is looking controlled – Another player on Columbia who knows his strike zone. He has 15 walks in his last 10 games.

Anthony Kay is pitching really well – 6 innings of 3 hit ball with only 1 walk is a great outing no matter how you slice it.

14 comments for “Mets Minors: A package for J.T. Realmuto

  1. Mike Walczak
    April 23, 2018 at 9:39 am

    I enjoyed this article.

    • David Groveman
      April 23, 2018 at 10:10 am

      Thanks for reading!

      • Mike Walczak
        April 23, 2018 at 3:33 pm

        You really did your homework on this Dave. Maybe you can get Alderson to call Jeter.

  2. April 23, 2018 at 10:11 am

    As Nathan Bedford Forrest used to say: “Get there first with the most.” If the fish are indeed moving JT, the Mets need to be first in line with the strongest offer. Anthony Kay (fully healthy and tearing up Low A), Justin Dunn and two guys who are probably ready this year–Luis Guillorme and Gerson Bautista.

    It’s a lot to give up, but the Mets window is wide open right now. Washington is banged up and off to a slow start, while Atlanta and the Phils are relatively untested.

    • David Groveman
      April 23, 2018 at 10:18 am

      Not a poorly constructed offer. Well done.

  3. Name
    April 23, 2018 at 11:08 am

    I think you’re underestimating what the Marlins would take as they’re not looking for salary relief, at this point. No top100 prospects shouldn’t get the job done.

    -He’s under control for 2.8 more years, not 1.8.
    -He’s only making $2.8 million this year, as opposed to $7+ for Yelich/Ozuna
    -The Marlins know the Mets are desperate
    -There’s no difference in what they’d get between trading him in April versus the trade deadline where there might be more bidders. They’d probably also get just as much this offseason with all the clubs willing to pursue him.

    They’re in a position of control and there’s no reason for them to concede and accept “fair” value at this point. If they want quality and not quantity for Realmuto, i don’t think the Mets match what they want.

    • Chris F
      April 23, 2018 at 11:30 am

      Correct Name.

      I dont think the Mets have what it takes to get Realmuto. Everything would need to start with something like Nimmo and Gimenez and include the two top prospects. I still dont think that gets it done.

      Miami is no longer in a place to reduce payroll. There is no advantage to deal with Mets only at this point, considering there may be a number of suitors come trade deadline, and the package a guy like Realmuto will get in a playoff run is higher that what we have.

      As an aside, Duquette and Bowden talked about it this weekend on their show and flat out said, the Mets dont have anywhere near what with would take unless Rosario and or Nimmo were part of the deal.

      • TJ
        April 24, 2018 at 5:25 pm

        I agree with you and Name, and I’d also add that I don’t think it makes sense for the Mets to deplete the system at this stage of the game. The Mets most certainly are in need, and have a gaping hole at C, but desperate, not quite. It may make much more sense, and cost a lot less, to carry weak catching and bolster up at 1B and the bullpen.

  4. Eric
    April 23, 2018 at 11:11 am

    Great trade analysis. Fair and informed!
    Yes, Pete Alonso looks very intriguing.

  5. Steevy
    April 23, 2018 at 12:44 pm

    I also don’t think Derek Jeter would want to help the Mets.:)

  6. Madman
    April 23, 2018 at 4:19 pm

    How about Alonso,Gsellman, Bautista, and Giminez? Think they’d perk up their ears?

    • Chris F
      April 23, 2018 at 7:16 pm

      Just keep in mind, you are looking at a 140 per year starter that can be an all star. We dont have a single prospect in the top 100 on MLB pipeline. Alonso is the only player in the top 10 at any position. The Marlins are gonna want real quality players in return, Im not sure the Mets have it.

  7. OldBackstop
    April 23, 2018 at 9:28 pm

    I don’t think this will happen. There is an interview tomorrow where Bryant Gumbel tears into Jeter for “tanking,” and there is a season ticket holder lawsuit for the team dumping talent so abruptly. If they don’t mind the PR….by the time the Marlins are ready to contend Realmuto will be a catcher in his late 20s with a lot of miles and two arb salary jumps.

    Nido/Lobaton/Plawecki-soon are not that bad. Plawecki has some pop and Nido had a batting title a few years ago in the minors. We might get some help in the market for a low prospect if necessary, but catching isn’t that much of a hole. I’d love to get Realmuto but if it only nets out to an improvement by giving up a contributor at the major league level….then why do it? It’s all about this year.
    Nimmo and Gsellman, mentioned above, are important contributors with Harvey imploding and Bruce/Cespedes struggling.

    I would support overpaying in prospects that aren’t contributing yet in Queens. The original post is quite good….trading Nimmo or Gsellman (or certainly Conforto as Jon Heymann suggested) would be treading water.

  8. Mike Walczak
    April 23, 2018 at 10:41 pm

    Flashback – December 1984. Mets land Gary Carter for Hubie Brooks, Mike Fitzgerald, Herm Winningham and Floyd Youmans. (I believe those are the right names from my memory) Brooks was already a pretty good major leaguer and Floyd Youmans was supposed to be the next Doc Gooden.

    Realmuto is good, but I wouldn’t go overboard for him. I would not trade Conforto, no way. Gsellman, maybe, Nimmo, no. Nimmo has incredible plate discipline similar to Joey Votto.

    I just don’t think the Mets have enough quality prospects that the Marlins would want. Other teams could make stronger offers. But, one never knows. Jeters other moves had me scratching my head.

    So, here it goes. Oswalt, Bautista, Nido and Gimenez. See if they would bite.

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