In listening to the radio pundits over the past few week, I’ve begun to get annoyed with a trend I’ve witnessed. These experts do not think the Mets have what it takes to trade with the Marlins for J.T. Realmuto and they back these claims up with little actual information of the Met minor league players. Meanwhile fans have called in proclaiming that they have the trade package in mind to get the Marlins to sign off. Now, those who suggest that the Marlins would trade Realmuto for Matt Harvey, Juan Lagares or Brandon Nimmo are equally misguided in what the Marlins might actually want. So, do the Mets have what the Marlins might want and what are those players?
To understand what the Marlins might want, let’s look at some of their recent moves.
In this deal they acquired a pitcher who hasn’t pitched well in AA, a reliever and a distant hitting prospect for a 2B/OF with tremendous speed who they couldn’t afford to keep and who was near the end of his contract. Basically the Marlins got little more than a possible backend starter and a lottery ticket.
Again, we aren’t talking apples and apples. Stanton was a player that the team could not afford and they got a major league player the Yankees didn’t need and two meaningless prospects. Clearly this isn’t a great example.
This is a little more telling. The Marlins were trading a younger player who was someone they could “technically” afford and they got a better package. Castano appears to be a competent lefty starter who has some potential, Sierra is a major league ready outfielder who doesn’t seem to have a ton of star potential, Alcantra is a major league ready back-end starter, and Gallen was a fast-tracked starter who should also be in the majors shortly. Here, we see the Marlins looking for players who appear to not be terribly far away from the majors.
The best gauge of what the Marlins would want would be this final trade. While Realmuto should command less of a haul than Yelich, the Marlins were now trading from a position of power. Brinson was the star in the package, a player who has appeared in the Top 100 prospects multiple times and one who was ready for the majors. Meanwhile Diaz is a tempting infield prospect who has an equal amount of flaws and upside, Harrison appears to have five tools and was coming off a strong year in A and Advanced A and Yamamoto is coming off a solid season in Advanced A himself.
What do the Mets have that could compare to this last offer? Could they make an offer for 1.8 seasons of Realmuto catching?
The problem that most people see is the lack of a centerpiece. The Mets have Dominic Smith and Peter Alonso but the Mets want to hold onto the latter and the Marlins may not have interest in the former. Instead the Mets would need to consider adding a player like Andres Gimenez, which they would be loath to do.
Yet what many people are forgetting is that the Brewers have Yelich for four seasons and Reamuto isn’t on the books for nearly that long. The Mets don’t need to have a Brinson, they simply need a prospect that has elite potential. So here is my package:
● Justin Dunn – Former top pick for the Mets, Dunn gives the Marlins upside and a prospect with the potential to be a front-end starter in a few seasons.
● Corey Oswalt – While I’d prefer to give up others the Marlins deserve the best of the Mets back-end (major league ready) starters.
● Drew Smith – One of the relievers acquired in 2017, Smith has potential and isn’t miles away from being ready to contribute.
● P.J. Conlon – The Mets don’t like pitchers like Conlon and he’s most likely a trade chip at this point.
Three players with potential to make an impact on the 2018 season and a higher ceiling pitcher for their catcher who has been vocal in his wishes to be moved? Maybe it isn’t what the Marlins want, but it’s more than they got for other players they traded.
Zach Borenstein isn’t a prospect but he’s hitting – If you are looking to find the offensive star for Vegas, it’s Borenstein.
David Thompson is still lacking his typical power – He’s hitting .313 over his last 10 game but has no home runs.
Dominic Smith isn’t doing enough with his bat – He’s got 12 walks in the past 10 games and 15 strikeouts and needs to start putting bat to ball.
Luis Guillorme isn’t hitting enough – He’s not doing terribly but he needs to produce more in the PCL for me to have faith he can hit in the majors.
Tim Peterson is ready for the majors – He has a K/9 near 18.0 and he’s found his footing in AAA.
Peter Alonso is looking like a superstar – If there is one player to get excited about based upon the early season, it’s Alonso.
Nabil Crismatt throws another gem – Another great outing for Crismatt on 4/20.
Tyler Bashlor looking good – He’s gotta be close to a promotion to AAA.
Adonis Uceta is settling in – He’s looking like he was ready for AA and that’s good to see.
Ian Strom continuing his strong start – It’s getting more and more likely that I’ll need to do some deep research on Strom if he keeps this up.
Andres Gimenez fixes the Ks but stops hitting – He’s finding his footing and hasn’t hit his stride.
Blake Tiberi controls the strike zone – So many walks are making his OBP look phenomenal.
Scott Manea off to a good start – He’s got a 1.100 OPS through his first 10 games.
Walter Rasquin has come on strong – The second baseman is getting on base, showing some speed and stealing a few bases. All great to see!
Jeremy Vasquez is looking controlled – Another player on Columbia who knows his strike zone. He has 15 walks in his last 10 games.
Anthony Kay is pitching really well – 6 innings of 3 hit ball with only 1 walk is a great outing no matter how you slice it.