Wednesday afternoon the Milwaukee Brewers signed Gio Gonzalez to a $2 million one-year deal with incentives. The Brewers certainly needed rotation help, and the veteran lefty seems like a great fit, but he seemed like a great fit for the Mets too. Much has been written about the Mets’ pitching woes in the early going and especially with the back-end of the rotation. So why did they decide to pass on an inexpensive solid starter who could stabilize the pitching staff? Why did I have to change the title of this article from “When will” to “Why didn’t?”
The Mets’ front office answers this by stating Gonzalez does not represent an upgrade over incumbent Jason Vargas. They might point to his best start of the season happening last night, or they must view all older lefty starters as the same despite vast statistical evidence showing otherwise.
First off, everyone should be happy that Vargas had his best start of the season last night, but should going 4.2 innings with 1 ER be a starter’s best outing? Perhaps the Mets bullpen wouldn’t have an MLB third-worst ERA if they didn’t have to take over games in the 5th inning, or in the 1st inning like they had to for Vargas just over a week ago. Even in this day and age a major league pitcher shouldn’t have a ceiling of 4.2 productive innings.
Gonzalez on the other hand has a floor of about 5 innings. At this stage of his career he struggles with the third time through the order, but can at least be serviceable in the beginning innings. Vargas has not proven he can during his stint with the Mets.
Vargas has compiled an ERA of 5.97 in his time with the Mets, and Gonzalez has had a 4.21 ERA in that same span. He’s also three years younger, strikes out 2.5 batters more per game over his career, and has actually been an above average pitcher in terms of ERA and FIP every season over the last 10 years. Vargas has over that time period sat around average, had one good half, and then seemed to lose it. These recent seasons he has seen a dip in velocity which could explain some of this, and does not give much hope of a turn around.
When looking at this move, or lack thereof, from a statistical perspective it doesn’t seem to add up, but perhaps another type of number matters more for the Mets: $16 million.
That is the total amount the Mets are paying Vargas to be this pitcher, while they should consider paying him this same amount to not be their pitcher. They don’t seem to understand the economic principle of a sunk cost. When was the last time the Mets ate up a contract? Do they operate in a way to win ball games or just minimize regret?
The Wilpons being cheap on this is nothing new, but the problem may go deeper than them. Brodie Van Wagenen is Vargas’ former agent, and Dave Eiland is his former pitching coach. One should question if it even was the money that resulted in Gonzalez not being signed by the Mets. He already left Scott Boras for CAA which seemed to pave the way to Queens, but was it this loyalty to a subpar 36-year-old starting pitcher that blocked it? Will the Mets continue to be a business that operates by protecting its own and rejects analytics, or will they be a competitor?
Well written, tough love article. Great read on one of baseball’s great guys.
Chio spent some time there last year…it may have been His Choice! After all, next year’s pay is based on this year’s performance—maybe they have a wide open slot for Chio to join the rotation, and the Mets didn’t shjow that to him.
Where does he feel that he has the best chance to get to the World Series ? Probably the Brewers.
It’s quite possible the Mets made a similar offer but Gio chose the Brewers based on comfort level from playing their last year or because he likes Bratwurst and Laverne & Shirley. Who knows. I agree that signing him would have helped and not just in the rotation. Vargas in the pen would have to be an upgrade over the rotating 7th spot where one guy after another has stunk up the joint.
My concern about pitching depth goes beyond Vargas. Adding a starter is not just about upgrading the 5th spot in the rotation. Does anyone really feel confident in the other four all giving us 30+ starts?
Good article, based on facts and statistics. Gio wasn’t the solution now but he was an upgrade. Matt is right, he would add depth that we don’t have. Even though we’re talkin about a fifth starter, only five innings is still unacceptable. In Vargas last start Callaway pull him too soon and then put his second-tier relievers after him. Callaway is the problem also. For 2 million dollars they could have signed Gio and piggyback him with Vargas and Save the bullpen every fifth day.
The Guy has to Agree to sign with You…. he’s pitching for innings and a real contract in 2020.
he would have been a good add
The elevation of Gio Gonzalez into desirable acquisition has been curious.
Here are his xFIP numbers, starting in 2014:
3.39
3.59
3.80
4.24
4.44
That’s not something to which I would want to hitch my wagon.
In his last 11 starts last year, he had a 5.08 ERA and had the same problem with the gopher ball that Vargas has, as he allowed 7 HR in 56.2 IP. He had a nice run when he could suppress HR but that phase ended in 2015.
Additionally, he failed to pitch six innings in 8 of those 11 games.
This year, he has a 6.00 ERA in three games at Triple-A.
None of the projection systems see him as anything special.
I’m not going to worry about missing out on him at all. The key to an upgrade is that it, you know, actually provides an upgrade. I’m all for looking for a low-cost upgrade to Vargas. But this wasn’t it.
At $2,000,000 he was arguably a nice “ticket”….not a plug and play upgrade.