The defense is awful, the bullpen is leaky, injured, and overworked, but when people pound the Mets these days it’s because of hitting – or I should say lack of hitting.
Tell the truth, the game reaches the fourth inning and the Mets have no runs and no hits, are you surprised? I’m guessing you just said or nodded no since this is getting to be business as usual.
I didn’t go back all the way to 1962 but decided to see how the Mets’ hitting has been from 2000 on.
Check out this graphic.
| Year | G | R | Managers | Mets R/G | NL R/G | Mets% of league avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 74 | 265 | T.Collins (37-37) | 3.58 | 4.14 | 86.5% |
| 2014 | 162 | 629 | T.Collins (79-83) | 3.88 | 4.07 | 95.4% |
| 2013 | 162 | 619 | T.Collins (74-88) | 3.82 | 4.17 | 91.6% |
| 2012 | 162 | 650 | T.Collins (74-88) | 4.01 | 4.32 | 92.9% |
| 2011 | 162 | 718 | T.Collins (77-85) | 4.43 | 4.28 | 103.6% |
| 2010 | 162 | 656 | J.Manuel (79-83) | 4.05 | 4.38 | 92.5% |
| 2009 | 162 | 671 | J.Manuel (70-92) | 4.14 | 4.61 | 89.8% |
| 2008 | 162 | 799 | W.Randolph (34-35) / J.Manuel (55-38) | 4.93 | 4.65 | 106.1% |
| 2007 | 162 | 804 | W.Randolph (88-74) | 4.96 | 4.80 | 103.4% |
| 2006 | 162 | 834 | W.Randolph (97-65) | 5.15 | 4.86 | 105.9% |
| 2005 | 162 | 722 | W.Randolph (83-79) | 4.46 | 4.59 | 97.1% |
| 2004 | 162 | 684 | A.Howe (71-91) | 4.22 | 4.81 | 87.8% |
| 2003 | 161 | 642 | A.Howe (66-95) | 3.99 | 4.73 | 84.3% |
| 2002 | 161 | 690 | B.Valentine (75-86) | 4.29 | 4.62 | 92.8% |
| 2001 | 162 | 642 | B.Valentine (82-80) | 3.96 | 4.78 | 82.9% |
| 2000 | 162 | 807 | B.Valentine (94-68) | 4.98 | 5.14 | 96.9% |
What you will see is that in only four of the 16 seasons shown did the Mets put together an offense that scored more than the league average. The 2001 and 2003 teams were even worse at scoring runs than the current crew when you compare to the league average. Of course, those guys might not have needed as many runs to survive since I never recall any Mets team with a worse defense than this one.
This year’s offensive hodge podge is still 0.3 runs per game lower than anything they have shown this millenium.
To a minor extent the home ballparks are to blame for the offensive struggles. While Shea Stadium had a reasonable configuration Bill James decades ago conjectured that the visibility for the batter must have been compromised. That ballpark almost every year graded out as a pitchers’ park.
CitiField, as we all know, was built with ridiculously cavernous dimensions. Hitting homeruns there in the first few years was about as challenging as doing so at Candlestick Park in its inaugural season which was also built too big. Giants management was quick to recognize how they were handicapping Willie Mays and his mates so put up the wire fence well closer to the plate to convert it to fairer dimensions.
But for the most part I have always felt that the Mets struggle to score runs because the team always did a better job of identifying, drafting, and signing quality pitchers than they did in getting guys who could hit.
When Mets fans brag about their team – as if that happens much – they normally trot out the names Seaver, Koosman, Matlack, Gooden, and now Harvey. And while not denying that some hitters have had excellent offensive seasons for the Amazins it would be hard to point to anyone who had sustained success as a position player for the Mets.
What’s the answer?
If you are just unable to draft enough good bats then you must go one of two other routes. One is free agency an area where the Mets have been woeful. Beltran worked out. Foster, Bay, Cuddyer, Granderson, and a bunch of others have not. Plus free agents cost money, something the Wilpons refuse to shell out any more.
The other is via trade. Even there the team is behind the 8-ball. Of course we don’t know what bats have been offered to Sandy Alderson for which pitchers but clearly he has judged the offers as insufficient.
The only thing we know for sure is that no team can field a horrid defense combined with a practically league low offense and expect to win enough games to make the playoffs. Even five healthy Cy Youngs would have trouble if you hung that kind of an albatross around their necks.
First identify the bat. Second please have a sense that the player can and will produce again for the next 2 or 3 seasons. Payroll? I’m sorry but that’s just a poor excuse. Colon and Murphy are off the books at the end of this season (or sooner). That’s 20+million that can be used for your offensive bat. Matz and Thor get added to next years rotation. Dump Gee and Niese for a legitmate 4th outfielder and save another 13+million. Tulo or Braun. If Tulo (which I prefer) then Tejada becomes your sup sub in the infield and Flores can be packaged with Montero and Conforto for Tulo.If Braun then Cuddyer is gone (please) and Flores moves to third (assuming Wright is out) and the Met’s will probably have Tejada at SS. Not high on my wish list.
Colon should be traded now, if possible, with the Wilponzis eating (pun intended) salary. I want a NYC team to spend more, and don’t care about saving the Wilpons money, especially with attendance up this year. Of course, the hitting is so bad, that could change, if nothing much is done. Niese should be kept until Wheeler is back and OK. Murphy should stay and play 3B this year. I’m OK with keeping Flores at SS for now. He looks better, overall, out there. I’d give Herrera a bit more time at 2B. Conforto should not be traded. Maybe Nimmo though.
Another thing: Was it a good thing that Duda didn’t sign the long-term contract before the season began? Yes. He looks lost at the plate, waving at a succession of off-speed pitches. It may be Ike Davis, all over again…..
Also, here are Tulo’s Away batting stats this year: .284/.311/.440. What’s he really worth?
Even in this, an off year for Tulo, I would happily sign to have a gold glove caliber SS with an OPS over 800. It’s my opinion that Flores’ lack of range and fluidity have cost the team numerous games. He has to be replaced. Tejada is a baby step up in that department while Tulo would be a major improvement.
Yes it will cost Matz or Syndegaard plus some other good stuff and Colorado would have to eat some salary (how about 25%?) but a trade for him would be this club’s move akin to acquisitions like Keith Hernandez, Gary Carter, and Mike Piazza.
Larry you put Duda in the 3 hole Tulo clean up and Grandy in the 5 hole. It shores up the offense and lengthens the line up. If and when Wright comes back you can move him up to the 2 hole and have Murphy leading off
I need some real help in understanding why Tulo is something to be interested in. I wouldn’t take him from Colorado just to unload their salary, let along offer front line pitching.
Tulo is beginning the decline phase of his career. In fact he’s put so few seasons with 120 games I don’t see how he’s gonna be that much help. The days of that many games in the field are long in his past. Ok, so he’s not doing so well now, but let’s not pretend he’s gonna throw up numbers he had been with virtually no one hitting worth a stink around him. Let’s see, he’s also owed a minimum of 98M$ for his 31-36 aged seasons. So ultimately we would spend 100M for a couple years before we have another Granny anf 60M$ and the loss of controllable 1 and 2 starting pitchers. No way.
As I have said elsewhere, I’d be happy to let some prime pitching go, but I’m gonna need Nolan Arenado and DJ Lemahieu in return. If they want more pitching, let’s talk Montero and perhaps someone on the farm and perhaps talk Charlie Blackmon. In any event, Tulo and Cargo are has beens, that will never give the kinds of real sustained offense and defense we need.
So would SA really be looking at wright, granny, Cuddyer, and Tulo making up such a huge part of the annual budget? No way.
No, unless you think what he did last year and the first two months of this year is a mirage.
I hardly think looking at one half of one year’s stats are particularly enlightening for a player who’s been in the league as long as Tulo.
Also, you have to completely ignore the “Coors Field hangover” effect to put much weight in these, anyway. Look at what Larry Walker did both home and road once he left Coors.
“completely ignore” the Coors Field effect? I think that is a bit overstated. I was curious about Walker. He did do well in STL, but that lineup was a tad better than what Tulo would come into in NY. That cards team had Pujols, Edmonds, with Mark Grud and Reggie Sanders having exceptional seasons. They also won 100 games. Holliday is a good example. The Mets would love to have his STL bat in the lineup, right? But with the Rockies, he hit 20 pts higher, 50 pts more SLG, and his HRs went down 25%, RBIs down 20%.
I glanced at Andres Galarraga. I didnt take the time to do the math, but there’s no doubt that his production popped significantly when he went from Montreal to Colorado.
Both great hitters, both did exceptionally well after Denver. But the stats suggest that there is definitely a Coors effect. At least for those two.
I of course would love to see Tulo in NY. Who wouldnt. But I hate the thought of giving up a young arm. I envision a rotation of the Big 5 (Harvey/deGrom/Wheeler/Thor/Matz – in whatever order you like) for a few years. With a rotation like that, the Mets can survive with a weak offense. But, they need to play with a much higher baseball IQ, a sterling defense, and a better bench. The Mets could be like the SF Giants of the last few years, with better pitching. Now that would be fun.
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“Look at the gap between the home wRC+ numbers and the road wRC+ numbers for the Rockies. It’s at least nine every single year with the exception of 2011, and it’s been 25 or larger in five of 13 years the data is available.
This shouldn’t happen. Remember, wRC+ is supposed to take the park into effect. A small swing in the numbers would make some sense as most hitters do find more success in their home park, but the enormous gap here can’t be explained by that morsel.
Add these figures up over the years, and it comes to that jarring set of numbers at the bottom of the table. A 99 wRC+ in Coors field, and an 82 wRC+ on the road. That 17 point swing in wRC+ is about equal to the difference in career wRC+ between Troy Tulowitzki and Seth Smith. In other words, way too large to be explained by comfort in your home park. Something else is going on here. Something big.”
“However, because the Rockies’ hitters have to adjust to the abrupt changes in breaking pitches at sea level, their offense gets considerably worse on the road to the point where it causes them to lose an extra handful of games every season that no other team would lose.”
“The road numbers on the other hand tend to support the idea that the Rockies are operating at a competitive disadvantage to all the other teams in baseball. Like a drug addict not being able to function when they come off a high without a fix, Rockies’ hitters don’t seem to be able to function properly when they come off the high of hitting at Coors Field.”
http://www.purplerow.com/2014/5/15/5712224/the-numbers-are-lying
Brian
You took this discussion into a realm far beyond my understanding!
I will take a look at the link you posted. That said, the state differences just for the 3 guys I mentioned make it hard to deny a mile-high impact.
I like this, especially as it relates to Las Vegas where the Mets (stupidly, idiotically) have their AAA team. I don’t think it helps these hitters reach the next level in their development.
I’m sure this contributes to the situation but the poor offense of the Mets long predates Jeff Wilpon’s interference that forced the team into the least desirable AAA connection in the game.
I saw where Anthony Recker was named the PCL Player of the Week. So now he’s a hitter as long as he plays in that launching pad in blazing heat.
You have Matz ready in Las Vegas and Wheeler in May 2016. That’s 7 starters if you don’t trade Montero. or is that 8?
I think there’s a fascinating comparison that can be made between the 2010 Mets and this team.
Last night was the epitome of this. The two runs they scored were on a solo-homerun and a walk. Only the Mets would figure out a way to get two hits and win a ball-game.