Another Quality Start, another no-decision for Johan Santana Wednesday night. In his last five games, Santana has five QS, a 2.51 ERA with 33 Ks in 32.1 IP and is 1-0. Santana is too big of a person to think about anything but the team, but it kills me to see the Mets consistently waste strong outings from their ace. It would be one thing if this was just one season, but it has been the pattern pretty much throughout his career with the Mets.
Back in 2010, Bob Klapisch wrote a column for Fox Sports in which he lamented this very thing. Klapisch wrote:
“You could be conservative and say the Mets have cost Santana a dozen victories since 2008. A more realistic estimate would be 15 or even 20.”
Of course, Klapisch’s estimates were incorrect, but it points out how this is not a new problem. Since people still use a pitcher’s win-loss record for evaluation purposes, it means that a lot of people view Santana’s tenure with the Mets as some type of failure. But in four years with the Mets, Santana has a 142 ERA+. Compare that to his time with the Twins, when he had a 141 ERA+. I hope everyone treasures each time we get to see him pitch for the Mets.
2011 – .302/.383/.543 in 129 ABs
2012 – .167/.222/..310 in 126 ABs
Perhaps last night’s RBI double is the start of Davis getting untracked. But if he does not show any improvement by the time Jason Bay comes back, look for Davis to be sent to Triple-A to rediscover his stroke.
All winter, I wrote about what a mistake it was to sign Rauch for $3.5 million. Then he gets off to a tremendous start. But things are starting to even out.
The big difference is with his FIP. Normally a guy who does not give up many homers, Rauch allowed 11 in 52 IP last year, which resulted in a 5.26 FIP. He’s yet to give up a HR in 2012 and because of that he has a 2.65 FIP with the Mets. It could get ugly quick if/when the gopher balls start coming.
Last year Turner developed a reputation as an “RBI man” thanks to his hot May, when he drove in 20 runs in 90 PA. This year he has 6 RBIs in 49 PA and you don’t hear the “RBI man” phrase much anymore. To be fair, Turner was a starter in 20 games last May and he has made just eight starts in 2012.
On June 23rd last year, I wrote a piece and noted that Turner drove in 25.4 percent of the runners on base when he came to the plate. He finished the year driving in 16.7 percent of the 282 runners on base. Here in 2012, Turner has come up with 39 runners on base and drove in six for a 15.4 rate. That mark is better than I would have expected, but still nowhere near his marks from early last year.
DUDA’S ON TARGET: Before the season started, 36 people over at FanGraphs entered a prediction for Lucas Duda and the average of those 36 forecasts turned up a .281 AVG with 21 HR and 85 RBIs. If Duda maintains his current pace, he’ll finish the year with a .274-18-79 mark. Yet people are still thinking his season has been a disappointment.
In his last 106 PA, Duda has a .315/.406/.413 line. It’s the lack of power that has people worried/upset. I’m pretty sure we shouldn’t be upset at anyone who gets on base over 40 percent of the time. However, I wonder if the Mets would be better off batting Duda ahead of David Wright.
DEATH BY NICK: The Mets did not add a backup catcher in the offseason, figuring that defensive-oriented Mike Nickeas was a good option for the club. Everyone has good things to say about Nickeas but the results have just not been there. The Mets are 5-8 with Nickeas as a starter and the pitching staff has a 5.42 ERA with him behind the plate. Offensively, he has been as bad as feared, as he has a .179/.289/.231 line in 46 PA. Meanwhile, Kelly Shoppach, who was available as a free agent in the offseason and who signed for less than half the money of Rauch, has a .265/.368/.469 line and is a solid righty bat.
AFTERNOON DELIGHT: R.A. Dickey takes the mound for the Mets today as they square off in a 1:10 start against the Reds. The Mets are 10-5 in day games this year, with Dickey notching three of those wins.