Next up in our projection series is Matt Harvey. Two years after he was drafted, Harvey was in the majors, showing the best fastball for a Mets SP since they started keeping track of such things in 2002. He was shut down after 10 starts but he showed enough in that span to have fans dreaming of 30 starts from Harvey each and every year for the next 15 years.
Will Harvey be able to keep up his electric fastball over an entire season in the majors? Here’s how we see things shaping up for him:
No one thinks Harvey will fall on his face and even the most pessimistic of us think he will be able to give the team 160 innings in 2013. That would have been the third-most innings of any Mets pitcher in 2012.
Here’s what the group as a whole thinks Harvey will do in 2013:
If you combine the Harvey projection with the one that we did last week for Jonathon Niese, we think the Mets could get 371 innings at a 3.52 ERA from the duo. It’s not quite the 424 IP, 3.04 ERA that the Mets got from Niese and R.A. Dickey last year but it’s still a really strong start towards building a solid rotation.
Finally, let’s close with a table comparing the Mets360 numbers to those of two projection systems – Bill James and ZiPS.
It’s encouraging that both James and ZiPS sees Harvey posting an ERA under 4.00 this year, even if neither is as optimistic as we are overall. The James projection sees more baserunners due to hits allowed, while ZiPS thinks his walk rate will be worse than what we project. Everyone sees quality innings coming from Harvey in 2013.
Check back Saturday for our next entry in this series.