The Mets have a need for a veteran starting pitching for the back of the rotation. The pool to pick from isn’t filled with any studs.
It doesn’t help that Tim Lincecum signed a new two year extension reported to be worth $35 million. Most Mets fans dream offseason included signing Lincecum on a small two year deal, in the hopes that he would want to re-invent himself in Flushing. Now with Lincecum in the Bay Area for another two years, the Mets need to look elsewhere for that veteran starter.
Some names being thrown around include: Chris Capuano, Bronson Arroyo, Tim Hudson, Phil Hughes and others. While all three of these aren’t ace-caliber pitchers anymore, they can still provide a ton of innings while being a quality back-end rotation guy.
The name that seems to fit into Sandy Alderson’s scheme the most is Bronson Arroyo. The 36-year-old is an inning eater, while continuing to provide good numbers late in his career. Add to that the fact that he has said he would love to play in New York.
In eight seasons with the Reds, Arroyo reached 200 innings in 7 of the 8 seasons (with him throwing 199 IP in the lone year he didn’t reach that goal). A 4.05 ERA during that time would be alarming if he pitched in any other park than Great American. Going to a more pitcher friendly park can only help the strike-throwing Arroyo.
Arroyo is expecting to want a 3 year deal, with insiders saying he will command $36 million. $12 million a season for a proven commodity that doesn’t get hurt, eats innings and will thrive in the Citi Field environment is worth it. He hasn’t shown signs of slowing down. One of the Mets’ biggest problems over the past couple of seasons is the production out of the #4/#5 pitchers. Arroyo would instantly add depth and stability to the rotation.
The rotation right now has three guaranteed starters: Zack Wheeler, Jon Niese and Dillon Gee. With Matt Harvey out, Jenrry Mejia’s health in question and Rafael Montero/Noah Syndergaard needing more seasoning in the minors, the idea of Arroyo makes sense.
Past guys like Chris Capuano and Shaun Marcum struggled in their runs in Flushing, but Arroyo is different animal. Those guys were coming off injury and lack of production. Arroyo has been a reliable pitcher his entire career, who’s role won’t change here in New York.
With the circus that is the starting pitching market, Sandy Alderson is going to have to make some crucial decisions to give the rotation stability. If not Arroyo, another one of the names mentioned above. The state of the Mets rotation is in question, as two open spots are available. Alderson has repeatedly said he wants to fill at least one spot through free agency. Seeing Bronson Arroyo every fifth day would instantly make the Mets a better team. He should be brought to Flushing.
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Eh…I don’t think signing any of these guys to a three year deal is ideal. Alderson tends to go for the one-year contracts for his back-end starters. I’m certainly on board with taking a chance on him, I just don’t like the idea of giving him 3 years.
Anyone else having flashbacks of Oliver Perez looking at those contract terms (3 years/$36 million)? Ha.
If the Mets don’t increase their payroll, then they will have around $27M left for free agents (or traded for players). They need a right fielder and shortstop. Arroyo doesn’t play either position and should cost $12M annually leaving 15 M for the offense. $27M may not do it, let alone just $15M. The Mets have enough young pitching to get them through 2014 without a high priced free agent pitcher. Have faith in your farm system.
To Metsense. Cot’s has the Mets payroll currently at 33 million dollars. That would leave about 60 million for ARB and free agent signings.
You are correct. Here is how I came up with that number and the source.
2013 Payroll (Cots) $93, 684, 590
2014 Obligations -2* (Cots) $35, 550, 000
2014 Arb Estimates -11 (MLBTR) $26, 600, 000
2014 Minimum salaries -12 $ 6, 000, 000
2014 Free Agents $25, 534, 590
* includes past obligations of Bay, and Santana buyout
Please Edit above. Thanks Peter for having me check my numbers.
The payroll is actually $95,684,590 and 2014 obligations $35,550,000
Cots does not include Bonilla and his $2M a year in their charts so I edited him out.
2013 Payroll (Cots) $93, 684, 590
2014 Obligations -2* (Cots) $33, 550, 000
2014 Arb Estimates -11 (MLBTR) $26, 600, 000
2014 Minimum salaries -12 $ 6, 000, 000
2014 Free Agents $27, 534, 590
* includes past obligations of Bay, and Santana buyout
Aaron Harang has an option year for 7 million and a buy out for 2 million. I don’t think they’d get a 170 inning guy for 5 million, so why spend 2 million on a buyout, then 7 million on a similar (9 million total), when you can have Harang for 7 million. I’d then resign Dice K to a minor league deal and have him compete with Mejia for the final spot in the rotation.
That option year for Harang does not exist.
Hey Chris! Are you insane? 36 million dollars for a 36 year old pitcher with a 4.00 ERA in a pitchers ballpark? With the Mets having a limited budget you’re looking to throw away 12 million just because he can throw 200 innings? Where’s the logic in that? Dice-K or any other garbage basement leftover will give you the same results for 1/10 of what it will cost to sign Arroyo. 3 Years for a journeyman pitcher! Wow! Who has SA signed as a free agent pitcher to a 3 year contract as a 5th starter! Sorry Chris but your blog is coming from left field and should stay there.
With all the Met prospect pitching that’s expected to debut in the next 2 years, the last thing that the Mets should do is sign an aging SP to a 3-year deal. Only 1 year deals should be considered in my opinion.
$12 million is too much for Arroyo and too much for the Mets to be spending on SP this winter.
Exactly !!!
I just don’t see how the Mets are going to spend 26 million on their(9) ARB players. I believe the team can offer Ike a 20% pay cut if they keep him(2.5 mil). That leaves them with
Atchison 1,000,000?
Murphy 5,000,000?
Parnell 3,000,000?
Quintanilla 1,000,000?
Gee 2,500,000?
Tejada 600,000?
Turner 700,000?
Young 1,500,000?
Total-approx 18,000,000?
Just a side note. Bay deferred 12 of his 18 million dollar salary in 2013. So the payroll for the Mets was 81 million dollars in 2013. He’ll get 6 million in 2014 and 6 million in 2015.
No one ever gets a pay cut thru arbitration. Never. Ike is actually likely to get a raise(a tiny one). That’s usually how the arbitration situation works. Also, because the Mets delayed Tejada’s call-up, he will not qualify for arbitration next year. Also, i’m not sure what the organization thinks of Atchison and Q. But your total approximation number looks closer than Metsense’s number.
Took my numbers from MLBTR http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2013/10/offseason-outlook-new-york-mets.html and of course when I add up the 10 players it comes to $23.6 (but that includes all that are arb elgible). This leaves a total of $ 30,034,590 for FA and traded salary upgrade. If you give me another hour, maybe I can get it up to $40 M. 🙂
EY making 1.9mil and making more than Duda? That’s an easy non-tender for me in my book. Near 2 mil for a bench player is too much.
That “bench” player led the league in stolen bases…Seems like a steal to me..No pun intended.
Doesn’t make up for the fact that he can’t hit and field.
Love the sense of humor! Take your time! We have the entire off season. Why not put Murphy in a package for an impact outfielder and apply that money towards the new player salary? Put Flores at second and non-tender the 3 players MLB Rumors has listed? Total savings 8 million dollars.