Note: This is the first part of a short series comparing (at a high level) where the Mets roster stood last year at this time and where it stands heading into Spring Training 2014.
We’re quickly approaching the reporting date for pitchers and catchers and the start of baseball for 2014. The off-season may not have gone as well for the Mets as some would have liked. It also may have gone better than some would have expected. That’s baseball for you. Although the off-season is not over and the Mets will more than likely make small additions to the roster, the big moves are likely in the rear-view at this point. So where does the team stand as compared to this time last year?
This week we discuss the starting rotation.
Going into 2013, the Mets had Johan Santana, Matt Harvey, Jonathon Niese, Shaun Marcum, and Dillon Gee slotted as their 1-5. Generally that seemed pretty strong, even after losing their Cy Young winner R.A. Dickey and even though there were always those looming questions about Santana’s long-term health. Additionally, it was only a matter of time before top prospect Zack Wheeler made his major league debut.
Unfortunately for the Mets, Santana didn’t make it through Spring Training before re-injuring his shoulder and ending his Mets career* on a sour note. It was really a devastating blow to the team and one that, while not shocking, was certainly a bit unexpected. Jeremy Hefner picked up Santana’s spot in the rotation to open the season and filled in admirably (and exceptionally at times) before also going down with an injury. Harvey became one of the best young pitchers in baseball, Niese and Gee contributed solid seasons (sometimes more), Wheeler was eventually called up and had a solid debut, Marcum ended up as simply a footnote, and fans watched various pitchers from Aaron Laffey to Daisuke Matsuzaka making starts throughout various points in the season.
The Mets got 11.1 fWAR out of their starting rotation last year, right near the top of the bottom half of the league (18th). More than half of that (6.1) was contributed by Harvey, though, which was pretty incredible. Interestingly, the Mets’ rotation K/9 of 7.58 landed them in the top ten in baseball. Again, that number was influenced heavily by Harvey’s 9.64. Mets’ starters also had an ERA- of 103, which made them 3% worse than league average, but still landed them in the top half of the league (14th).
Going into 2014 the outlook is a bit dimmer, at least in the short-term and considering what was lost. Harvey and Hefner will miss the entirety of the season after undergoing Tommy John surgery while Santana and Marcum are no longer on the roster. The carryovers are Niese, Gee, and Wheeler, a solid 3/5 of a rotation. The Mets also added 40-year-old Bartolo Colon on a two-year deal. The fifth spot in the rotation is up for grabs, with some combination of soon-to-be signed veteran(s) and minor leaguers (and Jenrry Mejia) vying for it.
So what can we expect? Well, that’s a tough question to answer. For one, Harvey’s 6.1 fWAR will be sorely missed. Although not a sure thing, we can reasonably expect Wheeler to improve on his rookie season. It would be unfair to expect a Harvey-like emergence, however. There’s no reason to expect less than solid, productive seasons from Niese and Gee, assuming they can stay healthy. In fact, 2.8 of that 2013 fWAR were contributed by those two. Both are at the point in their careers where they really do have just a bit more room for improvement, too.
Colon is really a wild card here. He’s been very good since 2011 and during the part of his career where his performance should be getting worse, not better. The Mets are taking a risk in signing him, though it’s a risk worth taking at this point. The fifth spot is very much up for grabs. Mejia may eventually win it, and that could turn out very well for the team. Though Mejia has been fighting through the mismanagement of his development and injury, he’s shown flashes of a dominant young hurler. He put up a K/9 of 8.89, a 1.17 WHIP, and almost a full fWAR in a very limited sample in 2013 (27.1 IP).
Of course the Mets again have some high-upside young pitchers who will be waiting for their call in 2014. It remains very likely that fans will be watching one or both of Noah Syndergaard and Rafael Montero pitching in Queens sometime this summer. The Mets farm is currently known to be very strong in pitching and it’s starting to bubble up to the top of the system.
Barring another catastrophic injury, the Mets rotation should be one of the team’s major strengths in 2014 and beyond.
* It’s still possible, though unlikely, that a Mets/Santana reunion occurs before the start of the 2014 season.
Plagued by injuries time and time again… If and when they can have a fully healthy staff they’ll be, finally, a dominant team to watch. Just gotta get over another hurdle…
If Montero earns the spot, he has enough projected innings (180) to pitch almost an entire year.
If Mejia earns the spot, he should be able to stretch out to 140 innings before the imposed innings limit sets in. In theory, that could be 20 starts (120 innings) leaving 20 innings for long relief outings. The other 12 starts could then go to Syndergaard who would get an “after Super 2” call up. Syndergaard would need to stay on his AAA 5 inning per start limit for this to work.
Ideally I prefer the Mejia/Syndergaard scenario to start the season with Montero the first call up (after April 21st) as a rotation injury replacement. (Before April 21st just use Torres).
Metsense,
IMO, Syndergaard needs to pitch at least seven innings and develop that mentality. Like Nolan Ryan said with the Rangers, if they can’s even go seven, make them go tot he bullpen. However, I would love to put Mejia and Syndergaard together as one dominant spot, hopefully. Montero needs to show his stuff and you’re right in that he can throw close to a full year. Start in Vegas and be the first call-up for an injury, or a trade. Gee and Davis or Duda as a package.
I am not a fan of a pre-set inning limits based on the previous year. A “good” coaching staff should be able to observe when a player is fatigued and rest him or dial him back accordingly. The pre set number should just be reference point to indicate the coaches should look for signs and react to them.
Very old school Metsense!
I heard an interview with Leo Mazzone recently where he said he would like to be a skipper, but because thats how he thinks, he has been told that a manager job will never open.
On the flip side, he kept one hell of a pitching staff healthy for a long long time.
What I am not understanding is between Mejia, deGrom, Montero, and Syndergaard, can the Mets not find enough here to fill one position in the starting rotation and all we hear is they want a veteran starter? For what?
I’ll put this out there: The Mets starting rotation produces a minimum of a 30% increase over last year, without Matt Harvey.
Without stretching in the least.
Colon: 3.5 WAR
Niese: 2.5 WAR
Wheeler: 2.5 WAR
Gee: 3 WAR
Mejia: 2.5 WAR
Mets long man – either Torres or Montero or both – 2 WAR. Consider what Mejia did last year alone, extrapolated to a full year. Now add in a defense without Andrew Brown and Eric Young in LF.
Mets will have a staff ERA in the top 6 in the NL. *Easily.*
Colon had just 2.4 fWAR in 2012
Niese’s average fWAR is just under 2 per season
Wheeler possible sophmore slump
Gee’s high in fWAR is 1.4
Mejia’s career high in innings is 108
Fangraphs thought Torres was extremely lucky last year and cost the Mets 0.1 WAR.
Does Montero pitch enough innings to get to 2 fWAR? Harvey had 1.1 in 59 IP and Wheeler had 0.6 in 100 IP.
I think they’ll be top5 in the NL, just not with the same consistency that you’re predicting. I’m guessing at least 1 will be over 4 WAR and 1 will be under 1.
Yah, I don’t think every starter will deliver as stated. There’s a swing in there of around +1/-1; in Colon’s case, it might be +2/-2.
After all, he could very nearly replace Matt in one fell swoop.
End of the day, none of those numbers are out of touch in the least with what they’ve already produced. In particular, it’s not out of range for what they produced at times *last year*. You can never have enough starting pitching, but on team this weak, it’s not keeping me up nights.
Want to talk about our ability to LHP? Or provide solid defense at two out of three of the games most important positions – C/SS? I’m all ears. We’re about as good as we can be at SP and even bullpen.
Want to talk about our ability to *hit* LHP? ~Correction.
The Mets do not need to shop for another veteran, it’s time to put up or shut-up. With all the talent they have in the Minors let them play and see where the chips fall.
the only person who is right is Leo Mazzone if u can not pitch at least seven innings u should become a butcher or baker not a major league I woul hire Mazzone in a heartbeat he kept a pitching staff healthy for decades and three of them r hall of famers again if u need a pitch count find another job or work for pennies that is all they r worth