Three times in his career John Lannan has made 30 or more starts and notched an ERA under 4.00 – stamping himself with #3 SP upside. Daisuke Matsuzaka has three seasons where he posted a fWAR of 2.5 or higher, including one year when he went 18-3. But every Mets fan out there wants Jenrry Mejia to win the fifth starter’s job.
Part of that is because he’s a young, homegrown guy. And part of it is because, like he showed in five starts last year, Mejia has ace-like stuff. Pitching with bone spurs in his elbow that ultimately required surgery, Mejia had a 2.30 ERA, a 1.17 WHIP and a 6.75 K/BB ratio. That last number stands out because one of the big worries was whether or not he could throw strikes. It’s still a small enough sample not to be definitive. But we caught a glimpse of what could be if he wasn’t done in by walks.
Mejia has recovered from surgery and reported to camp early in his bid to win the fifth starter’s job.
The conventional wisdom is that the people in charge prefer to open the year with veterans in the rotation. If true, that means Mejia will have to pitch markedly better than Lannan and Matsuzaka. If he pitches like he did in the majors in 2013, the spot will be his. Mejia’s combination of strikeouts and ground balls is ideal for a big league pitcher.
So, what will he do in 2014? Here’s what we think:
| IP | ERA | K | BB | HR | FIP | GB% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Albanesius | 100.0 | 3.25 | 85 | 35 | 9 | 3.72 | 62 |
| Ferguson | 170.0 | 3.90 | 140 | 60 | 14 | 3.68 | 60 |
| Flattery | 112.1 | 2.80 | 95 | 33 | 6 | 3.08 | 44 |
| Groveman | 66.0 | 3.41 | 61 | 20 | 10 | 4.23 | 55 |
| Hangley | 171.0 | 3.11 | 167 | 37 | 18 | 3.26 | 51 |
| Joura | 110.0 | 3.10 | 102 | 30 | 10 | 3.35 | 52 |
| Koehler | 75.0 | 3.35 | 65 | 20 | 6 | 3.31 | 60 |
| Kolton | 17.1 | 5.26 | 13 | 10 | 6 | 8.00 | 42 |
| McCarthy | 107.0 | 2.98 | 101 | 38 | 11 | 3.71 | 31 |
| O’Malley | 93.0 | 3.72 | 89 | 30 | 9 | 3.51 | 53 |
| Rogan | 86.0 | 3.80 | 74 | 24 | 8 | 3.53 | 62 |
| Stack | 140.0 | 3.45 | 133 | 58 | 12 | 3.66 | 59 |
| Walendin | 120.0 | 2.97 | 113 | 29 | 7 | 2.80 | 56 |
Only Scott Ferguson and Charlie Hangley think he’ll be able to pitch essentially a full season. Most of the rest of us feel like when he gets the chance to pitch that he will do quite well. We just think that for whatever reason – injuries, six-man rotation, general incompetence – that Mejia will not get the chance to make 30 starts in 2014. And Dan Kolton checks in with a massively pessimistic forecast.
Here’s what the group as a whole projects for Mejia in 2014:
A fifth starter who can deliver a 3.35 ERA would be a very nice thing to have. The only thing better is if he could do that over 70 more innings. We now have the top five starters combining for 815.1 IP. The five SP with the most innings for the Mets in 2013 delivered 751 IP. In 2012 the top five had 765.2 IP and in 2011 it was 905.1 IP. The 2011 staff delivered quantity but fell down somewhat on quality. Only R.A. Dickey had an ERA below 4.00. The next lowest was Jonathon Niese at 4.40 in 157.1 IP. The hope is that the 2014 staff can approach the quantity of the 2011 staff with a serious upgrade in quality.
Now let’s see how our numbers compare to the projections available on FanGraphs for Mejia:
| System | IP | ERA | K | BB | HR | FIP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mets360 | 105.1 | 3.35 | 95 | 33 | 10 | 3.57 |
| Steamer | 59.0 | 3.57 | 50 | 21 | 4 | 3.46 |
| Oliver | 72.0 | 4.11 | 49 | 28 | 7 | 4.20 |
| ZiPS | 74.2 | 4.22 | 53 | 29 | 7 | 4.23 |
There are two big divisions in quality. Our forecast and the one for Steamer are pretty close in both ERA and FIP while the Oliver and ZiPS models see a pitcher about three-quarters of a run worse. The pessimistic projections are in lock-step agreement on innings, too. Our IP prediction is nearly twice the rate of our Steamer partner.
Check back Thursday for our next entry in the projection series.
Mejia “peaked” at about 115 innings prior to major arm problems. He was under 60 innings last year–post comeback.
Syndergaard Pitched 117 innings last year…Montero Pitched 155…Degrom 147…Matz 106…
These are the Guys with the combined readiness and Stuff to be on MLB radar this season. I threw in Matz as “an outlier” even though he’s not yet pitched at upper levels.
Any projection or statement on their “innings workload” for this season? Montero and DeGrom would seem to be the only guys who would project upward of 170-190 innings…… wherever they pitch.
As for Mejia, wherever he pitches he would probably project substantially below 160 innings this year—I’m sure there must be some protocol for his situation. I wonder how far below 150/160 innings he will be capped—it’s a substantial factor in projecting him.
Mets generally keep their prospects to an increase of 30 or so innings per year.
Essentially, Montero and JDG have no innings limits this year. I would be surprised to see Syndergaard top 160 and Matz 130.
The Mets are one of those organizations that sucks the life out of its fans. These idiots have no clue what they are doing or what direction they want to follow. In one side of their mouths they talk about how they want to go with the youngsters and on the other side, they continue to say how experienced pitchers like Dice K or Lannan make sense for the rotation at the expense of Mejia. Just about the only reason us fans have to watch Mets games is to see the kids and their progression. Now the Geniuses in the front office have taken even that away with the signing of Chris Young who hasn’t done anything special in over 2 years and a bunch of have beens. 4 years into the Ivy League educated GM and the Mets have more holes than when the HS educated Minaya was in charge, pathetic.
The 3 Stooges or GM Trifecta seem to only pick pitchers or kids out of HS. Where are all the up and coming position players 4 years after taking over? Nimmo/Smith? That’s it and they won’t be ready for a couple of years. Not impressed.
3 Glorified GMs and a Village Idiot in the dogout whose only purpose seems to be to confuse the players, the fans and himself. When I think of Collins, I see him in a mini skirt with pom poms jumping up and down like a chearleader and shouting I’m impressed…I’m Impressed.
There is no wonder why the Mets have been losers for so long. They hire idiots because that is the first qualification. Then those idiots hire yes man who will not question anything and act like the morons they are. I as a fan, have lost hope in that this organization will ever be a winner as long as it is owned by the Dodger fans Wilpons.
Think about it, Freddy Wilpons builds a stadium that looks just like the old Ebbets Field where the Dodgers used to play, then he builds the Jackie Rotunda while putting nothing from the Mets history. If that is not being totally clueless, I don’t know what it.
Editor’s Note – Please do not capitalize words as it is a violation of our Comment Policy
Joe Gomes—
I agree with much of your frustration and sentiment, but I can’t take much issue with the way the Mets are “stacking” these young pitchers. Montero, Syndergaard, Mejia….some guiys will include DeGrom—- Syndergaard and Mejia have never been past 115 innings. When you start figuring out how you’re gonna get to 800-900 or so “Starter” innings, you cannot drive that from the present guys. It’s gonna make more sense to “steal” those innings from some early Veterans….and some of those guys could add some value in multiple ways.
The Mets are not “holding back” Syndergaard—he’s not ready for big innings…ditto Matz…ditto Mejia.
It’s make sense to carry Lannan and Dice if they’re healthy
Thank You Editor for the policy warning and letting me vent my frustration.
I just can’t see Mejia getting 100 innings between injuries, rainouts, Montero and Thor. And that assumes he’s effective.
That may or may not be true. The simple fact is that for the Mets to find out if they have a key piece of the rotation going forward, they have to let him pitch. If Mejia can only go 140/150 innings, so what? All the answers would have been answered by then and the Mets can simply turn to Torres for the rest of the season once Mejia is shut down due to innings.
Lets not forget that switching Mejia from starting to bp, back to starting is what caused his arm to give out. Then, having learned nothing, the Mets allowed Mejia to pitch with bone spurs last year. This after the Witch Doctors on the Mets staff told him there was nothing wrong with his elbow. Only because Mejia insisted did they did a catscan that revealed the problem.
Figure that out. The patient has to tell the doctor what’s wrong. Now, stories are already circulating on how Mejia can land in the bp again because the idiots in charged learn nothing from the last time that was tried.
Like I said, stupidity is the first requirement in order to get a job in the Mets organization. They will give either Lannan or Dice K the 5th slot even thought they have no future with the Mets while either putting Mejia in the bp or Vegas.
Assuming there isn’t a rash of injuries this year (can’t imagine yet another season), there’s just too much competition for him to get 100 innings, let alone 150. Montero and Syndegaard are itching to come up, and there’s already competition in the bullpen. And even assuming he becomes the seventh inning guy, that’s not a ton of innings.
If Mejia earns the spot, he should be able to stretch out to 140 innings before the imposed innings limit sets in. In theory, that could be 20 starts (120 innings) leaving 20 innings for long relief outings. The other 12 starts could then go to Syndergaard who would get an “after Super 2” call up. Syndergaard would need to stay on his AAA 5 inning per start limit for this to work.
The worst projection of the site projections rates Mejia with a 4.22 ERA which is what a typical 4th starter would ERA be. I would take that even though IMO he will better with a sub 4.00 ERA.
If the Mets play it consevatively and start Dice K or Lannan in the 5th spot then Mejia should start in AAA and be the first starter call up to the majors. Mejia has the potential to be the difference maker for the 2014 team.