Next up in our projection review series is the captain, David Wright. Coming off of two 
MVP-caliber seasons in a row, Wright suffered through arguably the worst season of his career in 2014, with his numbers falling off across the board. Of course, Wright was dealing with a severe shoulder injury for a majority of the season and tried to play through it before getting shut down in early September, which negatively impacted his year. Here is the official Mets360 projection from before the season:
PA: 641
AVG: .301
OBP: .385
SLG: .508
HR: 25
RBI: 94
IBB: 11
Here’s how Wright actually did, with the best and worst individual projections among our group.
PA: 586
Best: Koehler – 600
Worst: Hangley – 695
AVG: .269
Best: Manners – .290
Worst: Albanesius – .313
OBP: .324
Best: Hangley – .332
Worst: Flattery – .425
SLG: .374
Best: Hangley – .412
Worst: Stack – .535
HR: 8
Best: Koehler – 20
Worst: Hangley – 31
RBI: 63
Best: Koehler – 75
Worst: Albanesius & Flattery – 102
IBB: 5
Best: Koehler – 6
Worst: Hangley – 25
Boy were we way off base on almost everything. But then again, who among us could’ve guess that Wright would set career lows in OBP, SLG and HR, and struggle so mightily in all the other categories because of his injury? Also, I’m not quite sure what was going on with Charlie Hangley the day he sent in his projections, perhaps he put in some wrong numbers. As Brian Joura pointed out in the original projection piece, 31 HR and a .116 ISO would be a record, and 25 IBB with an OBP of only .332 (given his projections of 695 PA and a .296 AVG) would only be mathematically possible if Wright didn’t walk or get hit by a pitch all year. Just hits, outs, and IBBs.
As a whole, our projection was a little more optimistic than all of the major projection systems: Steamer, Oliver and ZiPS. It seemed reasonable at the time that Wright could outperform the projection systems, since their data still weighted the 2011 season in their forecasts, which is the one where Wright played with a broken back for a month and a half. Steamer and Oliver had him hitting .290/.376/.476 and .294/.378/.494, respectively, while ZiPS was less friendly, at .276/.358/.467. All systems had him between 19-21 HR and 74-78 RBIs.
Unfortunately, Wright underperformed even the most modest of expectations. Now turning 32 this offseason, it’s probable we’ve seen the best years that Wright has to offer, but healthy, he should be better in 2015 than he was in 2014. At least we can hope.
I think this year was a lesson for Wright in that he now knows his injuries do more than just hurt him. If healthy, I think Wright will have a very nice bounce back year. If injured again, I think he will be quicker to take a rest, and allow the team to figure themselves out.
David Wright ended the season with an OPS+ of 101 or average due to a shoulder injury he sustained in early June. Wright hit his 8th and final homerun on July 11th and on the 14th during the all star break received a cortisone shot. Once it was apparent that the shot had no effect a decision should have been made. If Wright was going to continue to play then he needed to be moved in the batting order. The Met’s could have insisted on protecting their $20M annual investment and shut him down for six weeks, rehab it. Wright could have returned for the end of the season and evaluate the rehab to see if he still needed surgery. Now going into 2015, the Mets will be unsure under game conditions.
Three important numbers concerning David , 112, 134 and 32. Those are the games played in 2013 and 2014 and his age in 2015. Those numbers add up to another big bat for the lineup if the Mets want to hedge their bets for a 2015 playoff run.