3D logoWe’ve been around Sandy Alderson long enough to know his general strengths and weaknesses. Essentially, he’s done a very good job of stockpiling minor league talent, whether that comes from trading, drafting or not giving away what he inherited. He’s done well enough in the “throwing things against the wall and see what sticks” department. He’s not done so hot in signing free agents to multi-year deals or trading for players for the major league roster.

For a multi-year rehaul on a limited budget, these are good characteristics. For fans looking to make a splash during the hot stove season – eh, not so much. Alderson entered the offseason following 2014 with very little that had to be done. Sure, fans clamored to add All-Stars in the OF and SS. But at the very least, the Mets had homegrown players who held these positions down the stretch in 2014 who did not embarrass themselves. Furthermore, there were no imminent departures of key players and the potential addition of two impact players who missed nearly all of 2014 in Matt Harvey and Bobby Parnell.

Likely, the big additions for the 2015 team have already been made. While the possibility exists for a last-minute Dillon Gee trade, few people envision the Mets adding a major piece to the roster before the start of the season, whether that be a shortstop or a reliever. So, what did Alderson do?

The big move was to add Michael Cuddyer to the outfield, with the understanding he would play some first base, too. He also added John Mayberry Jr. as a reserve outfielder and top RH pinch-hitter. Finally, he signed relievers Duane Below, Buddy Carlyle and Scott Rice to minor league deals.

In all walks of life, it’s easy to criticize and harder to offer a realistic, more beneficial plan. When playing armchair GM we have the additional barrier of imperfect information. We may see free agent X as a perfect fit, but that player may wish to only play on the West Coast. We may wonder why player Y wasn’t signed when the GM may very well have put in a competitive bid only to have the player pick another destination because he perceived the grass as being greener elsewhere. And we may wonder why the trigger was not pulled on a specific deal, when we don’t know what else the GM was working on simultaneously or what injury information may not be in the public domain.

Accepting that we have only imperfect information, here’s an alternate offseason plan for the Mets.

1. Say goodbye to everyone that the Mets actually did, with the addition of Ruben Tejada. This is nothing against Tejada and his worthiness as an MLB player. It’s just that at nearly $2 million per year, what he gives the team can be easily replaced, for about 30 percent of the cost. Would you rather pay Tejada $1.88 million or Wilfredo Tovar $509,000?

2. Pull the trigger on the Gee-Eduardo Escobar deal. Perhaps Alderson didn’t do this at the time because he felt like landing Ian Desmond was a realistic possibility. Regardless, this seems like a win-win trade. The Twins get a competent MLB starter while the Mets save nearly $5 million and get a pre-arb player to replace Tejada. It’s possible that 2014 was a career year for Escobar. It’s also possible that the Mets’ insistence on hunting strikes will help Escobar to address his 40.4 O-Swing% and lead to a better offensive season. At the very least, he’s a competent defender at shortstop who can battle Wilmer Flores for the starting job.

3. Keep the money and the draft pick and don’t sign Cuddyer. It’s easy to understand why Alderson did this. The farm system is in good shape to handle missing the pick, Cuddyer brings the possibility of a RH power bat to the team and he also has the extra benefit of being pals with David Wright. He could hit .300, swat 20 homers and help Wright relax outside the lines. He could also miss half the season. Or he could play the entire year but face the reality that he’s 36 and playing in Citi Field and not Coors. Regardless of how 2015 plays out, his presence blocks Brandon Nimmo from playing in 2016. It’s the Bartolo Colon situation all over again. Those who ignore history…

4. Sign Mayberry to form a LF platoon with Matt den Dekker. And if den Dekker is unable to maintain the gains from his swing overhaul, Kirk Nieuwenhuis takes his spot. While Cuddyer offers the promise of 20 HR, den Dekker offers the promise of a .370 OBP leadoff hitter and a much better defensive outfielder. Would you rather gamble on a 36 year old staying healthy and staying productive away from Coors or a 27 year old repeating his gains from a season ago? And if you pick the latter, you keep your first-round pick and save $20 million over this year and next.

5. Sign Gaby Sanchez to be the team’s backup first baseman. Look, we all love the Eric Campbell story and the recent note that he’s willing to learn being a catcher only adds to the appeal. But he did not fare well down the stretch – .508 OPS over his final 102 PA – and it just feels like Josh Satin all over again. Sanchez has a lifetime .827 OPS in Citi Field and an .863 mark overall versus LHP. And with a .764 career mark as a pinch-hitter, he’s well-suited to come off the bench. Faced with few offers for his services, Sanchez signed a $2.5 million deal to play in Japan. You would think he would take fewer dollars to remain in the U.S. but let’s be conservative and give him the same deal.

6. Bring back Carlyle but add John Axford instead of Rice on an NRI. The only reason we’re staring at a plate of reheated Rice is because of the organization’s fetish for lefty relievers. Utilized in a way to maximize his effectiveness at the expense of every other pitcher on the staff, Rice has a career 4.18 ERA and a 1.485 WHIP and was significantly worse last year. Meanwhile, Axford has a lifetime 3.40 ERA and a 1.346 WHIP. He was worse than that last year (3.95, 1.445) which is why he’s available for an NRI. He’s also a guy who fanned 63 batters in 54.2 innings in a down year. Chances are Axford doesn’t provide anything useful for the 2015 Mets. You could have said the same thing last year about Carlyle. But there is some upside and the benefit comes in from the idea that the Mets will only use him if he proves effective in Triple-A, first. There’s just too much history of the Mets giving undeserved opportunities to lefty relievers to risk re-signing Rice.

7. Add Logan Verrett to the 40-man to replace Tejada and still draft Sean Gilmartin. Verrett’s spot is still far from sure and he likely gets dealt for cash or lost on the waiver wire. Still, he’s a potential asset at the time of Rule 5 and worth keeping for right now. Gilmartin is at least worth a look, although he won’t be given a very long leash.

The Opening Day roster shakes out like this:

SP – Colon, Jacob deGrom, Rafael Montero, Jon Niese, Zack Wheeler
RP – Vic Black, Carlyle, Josh Edgin, Jeurys Familia, Gilmartin, Jenrry Mejia, Carlos Torres
C – Travis d’Arnaud, Anthony Recker
INF – Lucas Duda, Escobar, Flores, Daniel Murphy, Sanchez, David Wright
OF – den Dekker, Curtis Granderson, Juan Lagares, Mayberry, Nieuwenhuis

DL – Harvey, Parnell

Batting order – den Dekker, Murphy, Wright, Duda, d’Arnaud, Granderson, Lagares, SS, pitcher

When Harvey is activated, they have to make the decision about keeping Montero in the majors as a reliever or sending him to the minors to keep as a starter. Hopefully he pitches well in his one start and they send him to Triple-A. It’s unclear when Parnell will be ready but it’s likely the move of which reliever to send down will be obvious.

Fans will not be happy with these moves. They’re already not happy with the offseason and this removes the one big addition. It’s a big vote of confidence for den Dekker and a savings of around $12 million this year, to be used if/when Troy Tulowitzki proves healthy. And if that does not come to pass, they have money for any other in-season acquisition that becomes available.

This offseason would have eliminated one of Alderson’s weaknesses in signing a free agent to a multi-year deal and preserved one of his strengths in keeping his first-round draft pick. It shifts the risk from a 36 year old to a 27 year old. It makes a mid-season deal for an impact bat more of a possibility with the extra money saved. It eliminates the $12.5 million obligation in 2016 and allows for regular ABs in the majors next year for either den Dekker or Nimmo, whoever deserves it more. And it adds a player in Escobar who can challenge for the starting SS job, even if no other moves are made, all while eliminating some of the excess starting pitching. In my opinion, these moves in total create more opportunity and more flexibility while saving money over what was actually achieved.

49 comments on “An alternate offseason for the 2015 Mets

  • TexasGusCC

    Brian, I like your version better than Alderson’s, but I need to disagree. MDD has not done well playing the corners, but I would have gone after Matt Kemp. Putting a 29 year old Kemp at #5 and RF would make this team much sounder. If the Dodgers were willing to take a package of Montero, Plawecki, and a Mazzonni, this is the move.

    Secondly, I would have called SF and Oakland everyday to ask if they wanted Murphy. This team just drags its feet when protecting the youngsters and that is why they lost Verrett. I would have opened up room for Flores and played Escobar or Cabrerra at SS if he isn’t in jail. MLB isn’t for choir boys. A Flores, Cabrera, Escobar middle infield rotation is both flexible and sound defensively.

    • Brian Joura

      Kemp hit well in the second half of the year and with Lagares around, he won’t have to play CF.

      To me, the question comes down to if you think Kemp makes the Mets WS contenders this year and if you believe in Nimmo and/or Conforto. Granny has three years left on his contract and Kemp has five.

      I see the appeal but I think there’s too much risk involved with Kemp.

      • TexasGusCC

        Brian, there is some risk with Kemp, but where isn’t there? Kemp is only 29 and a proven, big, big stick who is now healthy. He was an affordable and available “difference maker”. Wasn’t that what we were looking for? On MLB Network right after his trade from the Dodgers, they did a piece on Kemp and someone pointed out that the key to knowing Kemp is back wasn’t the hitting, but the base stealing that he hadn’t done in a while. Man, I wanted this guy in June.

        I don’t like hanging my hat on both Conforto and Nimmo just yet, but it seems like Alderson has no problem with it. Hard to expect both guys that haven’t mastered AA to be effective MLB pieces. His ego always seems to keep the Mets handicapped.

  • Joe F

    I’m not sure MC blocks Nimmo fully, there will be a lot of ABs between those two, Grandy getting spelled and at 1B, so Nimmo could get plenty of ABs against RH pitching. I think one of the reasons why they didn’t go with a straight platoon with MDD is because they may look to move him this year. After his performance in the PCL last year and brief stint in the majors, MDD mout be able to start in CF for another team, but if you don’t add MC, but you wouldn’t have luxury of moving MDD. Not an earth shattering move, but a decent pickup to help OF offense. Soup won’t be on the team to finish the year. Had minimal offensive value and is a hazard in the field. Sayonara and have a nice career in Japan

    • Brian Joura

      Nimmo’s a LHB – do you want the majority of his playing time to come subbing for Duda or Granny against a LHP?

    • Rob

      +1

  • Matt Netter

    Excellent post, Brian. This offseason should have shaken out a lot differently. Given all the trade bait this team has, I kept waiting for Alderson to pull off a big deal, not immediately sign an overvalued free agent and then close the books.

  • Chris F

    I can’t see Kemp as the answer to the Mets. For the kind of money we are better served going after Ian Desmond in free agency IMO. Why would the Giants want Murph? It’s been so long since he’s played third at elite level that it would be fruitless for them.

    What I can’t understand is why is that we let Nori Aoki go. He’s a natural lead off hitter and unconventional but passable defender. He’s an on-base machine. We are counting on Granny and Wright and Duda….is a 36 yo Cuddyer really needed?

    What I think seems to be missing in the Alderson plan is an integrated plan for actual players as opposed to a “big plan”. I get he wants on base and power (a moribund philosophy which has led to the least run production in ages). However, what I seem to think is missing are real plans to fill holes.

    1. Lead off hitter. Grade F
    2. Actualizing an integrated offensive plan. Grade F
    3. Bull pen. Grade D- (and I don’t think for a NY minute it’s solved)
    4. Shortstop. Grade F
    5. Developing a team that fits the talent and park. Grade F.
    6. Addressing 1B. Grade C-
    7. Outfield (what outfield? parts 1 and 2). Grade D-.

    None of the above are surprises as they have been question marks for years. He has spent a fortune on waste. Outside the Wright contract, which cannot be faulted, he has poured substantial resources into total losses. What I see is a “Lego” strategy out of Alderson. He hires someone based on a one dimensional characteristic, for example, power. This occurs regardless if that person fits other needs offensively or defensively. Look at Granny. His best productivity came out of the 2 or 3 hole (can’t recall), and he is hired to be a clean up hitter, for which there really was no evidence that would pan out. At the same time, Granny is not a defensive lock. Of course he looks like Clemente compared to Duda, which was another disastrous move. I am most appalled by the lack of playing to strengths. We are a pitching first team. We should be a strong defensive team. We have no reason to tinker with the fences. Every year it seems Alderson keeps playing with thinks to create disequilibrium rather than move towards equilibrium. I struggle to see that as a winning game plan. For my mental and physical health I hope I am as wrong as I can be.

    • LG

      Aoki is an ok player, but nothing special. He’s essentially a league average hitter – career 103 OPS+. And while he certainly is better at getting on base than Juan Lagares (the current proposed leadoff hitter) – he has a career .350 OBP – solid but hardly an “on base machine”. Cuddyer has some questions age/injury/how he’ll hit away from Coors, but he has been a significantly better hitter than Aoki, so from an overall offense standpoint – I think he helps more than Aoki would.

      I also don’t think they need to build a team to fit the ballpark, they should build a team to succeed wherever. And I don’t think 1b is a problem. Duda was great last year and they have solid options in Cuddyer/Mayberry to start games against lefties.

    • TexasGusCC

      Chris, would you give us a list of things you like?

      • Chris F

        Sadly, in the Alderson administration at the MLB level, there is pretty little. I’m as excited as any Mets fan about prospects, but as an ex-GM is fond of saying “prospects get GMs fired”. Nothing ever seems like an imperative with Alderson. It’s just progress at a glacial pace and little certainty.

        • TexasGusCC

          It just seems like Alderson is determined to keep that payroll as small as possible, and if he wins, great. If he wasn’t forced to pay Wright by Jeff and Fred, Wright would be gone too.

          • Chris F

            Hi Gus, what grades would you give the FO on those fronts?

            • TexasGusCC

              Chris, I won’t be as harsh but thank you for asking.

              1. Lead off hitter. Grade F
              I’d give them a B-. Not many teams have great leadoff hitters. They just won a World Series with one we would not be happy with.

              2. Actualizing an integrated offensive plan. Grade F
              My grade is a B+. They have unspectacular hitters but all they are hoping for is their avg season and let the pitching carry the team.

              3. Bull pen. Grade D- (and I don’t think for a NY minute it’s solved)
              I give them an A+. Is there a deeper bullpen with the depth possibility on the farm in all MLB?

              4. Shortstop. Grade F
              I have to be homer here and give a C. Flores is at least a hope. He did ok last year, let’s give him a chance. He deserves it.

              5. Developing a team that fits the talent and park. Grade F.
              Maybe a D here. Not in love with having two mid thirties outfielders clogging up the pipeline. But, I understand that winning to them is a matter of illusion.

              6. Addressing 1B. Grade C-
              Grade A. How can you not like Duda?

              7. Outfield (what outfield? parts 1 and 2). Grade D-.
              Lagares is a B+. The old guys are a D hoping for a B-. Overall a C+.

              Chris, they aren’t bad, but they just don’t seem to have many sure things outside of Murphy.

              • Chris F

                I was grading the entirety of his efforts, not where things stand at the start of ’15 spring training.

                In any event, I am way less convinced on the present pen. We have dragged everyone under the sun to lead off, and we are left with a guy with poor plate discipline. Years after Reyes left, we are still without an answer at short. Aldersons work at settling on Duda took a season too long. The revolving faces in the outfield look like a merry-go-round. And where are we? Two aging corner guys and a GG center fielder with legit bat issues batting lead off. I definitely see the world very differently.

    • pete

      I think part of that Chris is the owners realizing their pathetic efforts at “their” vision of what “they” wanted in “their” new ball park. A supreme attempt by Fred and Jeff to disenfranchise their fan base. Their strategy was to bale water from the sinking Metantic until Alderson could deliver on his quest to clean house and crush the payroll. Mission accomplished. Now what? Sorry but I honestly don’t see a cohesive plan. Just a year in and year out patchwork to have a product on the field which can be used to salvage “their” misfortunes. As for first base you’re being too generous. Lat year the Mets had 3 first base men on their opening roster. Sandy lucked out on Lagares. Otherwise he’d have 3 platoons for the outfield. It’s like an old dam with cracks in it. Plug one hole another one opens up elsewhere. Always patching but never fixing the problem.

  • DED

    Regarding Cuddyer, I agree that $21 million plus a draft pick was a lot to pay. However, I can at least,appreciate that the Mets didn’t greatly overextend to add right handed hitting in a market nearly devoid of that commodity. It could have been worse.

    As for Cuddyer blocking the emerging Nimmo, a well-financed team should never let that happen, certainly not for the dollars involved in paying off Cuddyer. The Mets have seen a few Wins on the financial front lately — the Madoff payout has been determined, set at about one half of what the Yankees still owe A-Rod, Teixeria and Sabathia; plus ticket sales are showing a healthy rise over recent seasons — so maybe the Mets will be one of those well-financed teams some day. One can hope.

    Den Dekker is 28 this year. Frankly I will be surprised if he is able to produce even in a platoon role over the course of a season. Captain Kirk, on the other hand, could do it.

  • LG

    I don’t love the Mets offseason, but I kinda like it more than the above proposal. At least there is the potential addition of a significant bat – the above proposal really isn’t adding anyone of that nature.

    Cuddyer might be a bust… I agree that his age and injury history make him a concern…he could miss a bunch of time and/or hit a big decline at anytime, but I disagree about the Nimmo factor. I don’t think they should’ve avoided signing an OFer for 2015 just because they might have a minor leaguer ready to take over the position in 2016. No guarantee Nimmo will be ready by then – and even if it was more certain – the team is allegedly trying to win in 2015 – so I don’t think ignoring the OF issue would be a good strategy.

    Besides, the Cuddyer commitment isn’t a particularly large one. If he’s terrible this year it is possible for the Mets to reduce his role next season (maybe start mostly vs lefties). And if MDD/Kirk are indeed solid options for this year, then it shouldn’t be that big of a problem if Cuddyer does get hurt – we’ll have a capable fill in.. MDD and Kirk did have solid seasons last year, but neither is proven at the MLB level – so I like the idea of them as “Plan B” more than a “Plan A”.

    • Brian Joura

      When he rejoined the Mets in August after having his swing overhauled, MDD had a .392 OBP. It’s fine if you don’t think he can do that again over a full season. However, it’s a mistake not to consider that an impact performance. Only five players in MLB who qualified for the FanGraphs leaderboards had a higher mark last year. Meanwhile, Cuddyer hasn’t topped 20 HR in five years. Last year 43 players topped that mark.

      • LG

        Sure, if MDD could do that over a full season that would be an impact bat. But that sample was all of 125 PA over 36 games, 31 starts. That’s a pretty meaningless sample and not one that major decisions should be made off of. Maybe it is possible he truly fixed his swing and can become a plus hitter, but it’s also possible it was just a lucky streak in garbage time games and/or pitchers will adjust back to him – and he’ll end up what he’s been over the larger sample size – a .600 something OPS guy. Ike Davis was a guy who supposedly “fixed” his swing part way thru both 2012 and 2013 and he finished each year well, but it didn’t exactly carry over into the following year. Only a handful of “qualified” players posted a .390 OBP over a full season last year, but plenty of players over the years have had a good month.

        And I didn’t say anything about Cuddyer being a big HR guy. I’m not sure why you are plucking two completely different stats- OBP off an incredibly small sample from MDD and HR from Cuddyer – to try to make some kind of comparison. If we want to talk OBP, Cuddyer posted a .385 over the last 2 seasons – 179 games – a much larger sample than MDD’s one month (not that I expect Cuddyer to post numbers that good now that he is out of Coors). Cuddyer posted a 124 OPS+ over the last 4 years…that is very good and an impact bat even without topping 20 HRs. He might decline since he’s old and moving away from a great hitters park or get hurt like he has quite a bit in recent years (which is also part of why his counting stats haven’t been that high), but if that happens then we have a potentially solid backup plan in MDD. Much safer to be able to have both guys than just banking on one- and his one good month. Cuddyer also has the ability to play 1b – so he gives us a better platoon partner for Duda than Campbell.

        • Brian Joura

          MDD has 237 MLB PA yet you think that the first 112 of them over several sporadic appearances before he changed his swing is a realistic outcome for him. OK, I’ll keep that in the front of my mind.

          I’d love to use a larger sample but I can’t make stuff up. There only is what there is. In his second stint in Vegas, when he revamped the swing, he put up a .402/.487/.655 line in 192 PA.

          At some point you have to give a shot to the guys in your system that produce. I think that’s preferable than to make a multi-year commitment to a 36 year old guy coming off an injury and moving from Coors Field. And one we had to surrender a draft pick to get.

          It’s one thing if you don’t have a guy. But we have a guy who deserves a shot and he’s getting the short end of the stick.

          • Name

            And his name is Kirk Nieuwenhuis. 🙂

            Sorry, i had to 😛 He doesn’t get any love.

            • Brian Joura

              I don’t think there’s anything wrong with stumping for Nieuwenhuis. When a guy is hot, you should be playing him and the Mets didn’t do a particularly good job of that with Nieuwenhuis last year.

              My opinion is that in the long run, MDD has a better shot of the two to perform at a high level. But at this point it’s just an opinion.

              • James Preller

                On MdM, I’m not as high as Brian Joura on this one. His big problem is Lagares, because MdM’s greatest value is as a CF glove. The “new swing” seemed to have sapped his power, and that’s problematic (again, if it’s alongside Lagares). Moreover, the LH bat on a LH-heavy team is also an issue. Cuddyer gives them a solid, professional stick from the right side.

                If the Mets really believe in MdM, it would allow them to trade Lagares (not that I’m advocating), who likely has real value on the open market. I don’t see the two of them ever really playing together. If you squint, half-drunk, it looks a tiny bit like the Wilson/Dykstra “problem” — in quotes — of the late 80s.

                • Brian Joura

                  For the most part, I agree with what you wrote here.

                  My quibble would be about the power part. While I think the new swing will prevent MDD from ever being a 20-HR guy, I don’t think he’s destined to be all singles, either.

                  In his first 53 PA after the recall, he had 2 doubles. In the following 72 PA, he had 7 doubles.

                  I recognize that this is slicing and dicing an already small sample. But until you actually give him the playing time, that’s all that’s available. He had a .253 ISO in his second stint in LVG last year. Then people say, “so what, everyone hits in Vegas.”

                  But it’s better than what Wilmer Flores did in LVG last year (.245 ISO) and plenty of people are proposing that he can hit 15 HR in the majors.

                  My opinion is that if you gave MDD a full season of PA, he could return a high number of doubles and a handful of triples and homers. You know, what Lenny Dykstra did in ’86 (27 2B, 7 3B, 8 HR)

          • TexasGusCC

            I agree with you Brian. This team has always crapped on the young player – unless he’s a first round Alderson draft pick or an Alderson trade. And if you are rebuilding, aren’t giving preference to the youngster?

  • Rob

    “Furthermore, there were no imminent departures of key players and the potential addition of two impact players who missed nearly all of 2014 in Matt Harvey and Bobby Parnell.”

    I can buy on Harvey but a guy coming off of two major surgeries that hasn’t played in almost two years when he finally gets back to action? And if you are to have an impact wouldn’t you be doing something for the team that it doesn’t get done already? Even giving for arguments sake that Parnell comes back in top condition with no ill effects from the two surgeries or rust from not playing for two years, how much better than the 28 saves in 31 tries Mejia posted can he possibly contribute? Doesn’t seem, to be a lot of room to make an impact there to me.

    • Brian Joura

      Frank Francisco was 23 of 26 in save opportunities.

      • Rob

        Correct and he can and Mejia can give those kind of numbers why is Parnell an impact player?

        • Brian Joura

          Was Mariano River an impact reliever?

          • Rob

            LOL,

            So now you are comparing Parnell who had one good injury interrupted season in his 6 year career to the greatest closer in baseball history.

            I’ll answer that one in a day or two when I stop laughing.

            • Brian Joura

              The reason I asked you that question was to determine if you thought it was possible to get an impact performance from the bullpen. It’s a defensible position to think otherwise.

              But the only thing you’re interested in is the “gotcha” moment. That’s good to know, too.

  • James Newman

    Great points here Brian. I like the addition of Axford, and I understand why it would be appealing to utilize den Dekker. den Dekker has always had the tools in my opinion. His glove is phenomenal, and his bat has some pop in it. Lagares and den Dekker in the outfield is a solid combination without a doubt. However, I do like Cuddyer’s presence in the lineup. As you pointed out, his health is the biggest concern going forward, but if he stays healthy, he provides another bat to the middle of the lineup, which (hopefully) places less pressure on d’Arnaud and Flores. With Wright, Duda, Cuddyer and Granderson in the middle of the lineup, I think they can form a powerful unit this season.

    Gee for Escobar is a great point as well, since Escobar has hit decently, and he has experience playing multiple positions which is always nice in the National League.

  • Patrick Albanesius

    I don’t see full-on platoons nearly as much in today’s game, and especially not with the Mets at least. Granted, had we not signed Cuddyer, the fan base probably would have been groaning even louder, but it was a move not worth making, so I get your right field moves.

    What do you think the chances of Cuddyer hitting .300 and 20 home runs are? 30-40%? What are the chances he plays less than 130 games? 40-50%? Just my guesses, but it seems like we are gambling on the unlikelier outcome.

    • Brian Joura

      I’d put the odds of Cuddyer hitting .300 and supplying 20 homers in single digits – probably around 7-8%. I’d go lower except he’s going to play for a manager who will play him 150 games if his body can hold up. He’ll need 140 or so games in order to have a shot, judging by his recent history. In 2010 he played 157 games and only hit 14 HR.

  • pete

    Hi Brian. Sorry to be off topic but I am not receiving any posts from mets 360 to my email address for the pass few days. Your help would be greatly appreciated. As it is one of the few blogs I truly look forward to every day.

  • Name

    Has any GM been less active than Sandy this offseason?

    2 signings (1 minor), a rule 5 pick, and a bunch of jokes…

    Other nominations:
    Orioles: 1 trade (Snider) and 2 signings (Wesley Wright/Delmon Young)
    Indians: 1 trade (Moss) and 1 signing (Floyd)
    Twins: 3 signings (Stauffer, Ervin Santana, Hunter)

    Ultimately, the winner of laziest GM goes to Alderson. Does Alderson think this team is so good it doesn’t need tinkering? Even the minor league deals have been few and far between this year. Just 6 minor league deals!

    • pete

      Do you think the Wilpons and the payroll eventually topping 95 million+ has anything to do with that? Alderson is like a little boy in a candy store with his parents. Son you can buy only 1 candy.

      • Name

        No.
        Last year, he had over 30 million to spend and he only signed 3 players, 1 waiver claim and 0 trades.

        This guy is just stupid and lazy. Goes to the candy store and picks out the overpriced and near-expired candy they put near the register instead of looking through the shelves to get the good deals.

  • Metsense

    One thing I am certain about is that the Mets did improve over the winter. It was a safe, conservative and economical upgrade. It wasn’t enough to put the Mets in the playoff mix but enough to give them a chance to be in the playoff mix. I feel that the author and many of the posters feel more should have been done.
    I myself would have been more aggressive. In retrospect I would have passed on the Cuddyer signing because of the loss of draft money and draft choice. Early on I would have tried to move Granderson because after a disappointing season one I would have tried to reduce the risk of $45 M and three seasons. Murphy also would have been on the trade blocks because he is in the walk year and the Mets have no intention to extend him. Two of three pitchers, Colon, Gee and Niese would also be available in trade with Montero slated for the 5th spot. These moves would free up a lot of money so that a Kemp like player could fit the budget. Boston and the Dodgers had outfielders to be offered. A shortstop should have also been brought in as competition and depth and Flores would have been moved to second base. I can agree with Sandy not initially trading his five young pitching stars (Harvey, deGrom, Wheeler, Syndergaard and Matz) but if Montero were included in a trade then it would have just meant trading only one of the three of Colon, Niese and Gee. I would not have been adverse to trading other prospects in the right deal. Players on the farm that are blocked should be used for trade to improve the major league club.
    It isn’t that the Mets didn’t get better this winter, it is that with all the available players traded this year they could have gotten much better and even younger.

    • TexasGusCC

      Very, very, well put.

      • pete

        Hey Gus how’s this to wet your appetite. Alderson signs Chris Young to a well deserved? salary of 7.25 million. I was reading the Yanks signed CY for a 1/3 of what Alderson paid with incentives. Very shrewd our beloved GM. Oh and Eric Young was just signed to a minor league contract by the Braves! Just goes to show you what a sharp eye Sandy has for being a top 12 GM of all time.

    • Brian Joura

      “It was a safe, conservative and economical upgrade.”

      The Cuddyer signing, the key piece of the offseason upgrade, was safe in the way that always bringing in a LH reliever in the late innings to face a LHB is safe – you avoid immediate criticism. If you read 50 analysis pieces on the signing, at least 45 of them were positive.

      But I don’t see how you can look at the specific details of this signing and say it was safe. There’s logic behind it and it’s easy to see how it could work out in the Mets’ favor. But that doesn’t fit my definition of safe.

      Furthermore, safe would have been bringing in an MLB-proven shortstop, someone at least half-step better than Ruben Tejada. But Alderson didn’t do that. He (sort of) swung for the fences with Desmond and now all indications are that he’s committed to Flores, a guy who was moved off the position after Alderson’s first year in control of the Mets. I don’t see that as safe.

      Without actually doing the research to confirm this, I believe this is the first offseason where he did not bring in a veteran with no ties to the club to fill out the pitching staff, either SP or RP. Wouldn’t the safe thing to have done be to add a veteran reliever?

      It’s an interesting idea to have actively pursued trading Granderson. That certainly wouldn’t have been safe. But how many GMs could you see doing that? My guess is only two or three. The problem is that if he did that, he would have had to have received an OF in return, because it’s obvious he didn’t want to give the position, even on a platoon basis, to either MDD or Kirk.

      It’s fun to be a fan of a team that’s really active in the offseason. Padres fans are living high on the hog right now and good for them. But my opinion is that all things considered, this wasn’t a bad time for Alderson to sit on his hands and bide his time.

      My belief is that there are a lot of question marks on this 2015 team that are going to be answered positively. I believe Duda will repeat his 2014 season, I believe TDA will be the hitter he was after his recall and will improve defensively, I believe JDG will be a quality SP and that Harvey will bounce back as good as new.

      If all of those things do indeed turn out the way I believe, then it will be time for Alderson to step up and make a big move. And if the planets align right, Tulowitzki is healthy and the Rockies stink — he can get a middle of the lineup hitter and Gold Glove level defender to play SS.

      A pipe dream? Perhaps.

      Still, that’s my take. So, my quibble this offseason with Alderson isn’t that he did too little but rather that he did too much. He pushed in with Cuddyer when he didn’t have to. This was not the time and this was not the player to surrender a first-round pick for.

      But I’m happy for Wright that he’s got one of his buddies on the team and my feeling is that Cuddyer will be an easy player to root for. And I’d like nothing better than Cuddyer to put up a season like he did in 2013 and for everyone to remind me how I was wrong.

  • pete

    Very interesting Metsense. Is what you suggested Alderson’s opus operandi? Is he a hoarder who just hates to let go? He chose the safest path with the least negative impact on the 2015 Mets. A very “safe” signing in Cuddyer. With so many options at his disposal as you pointed out he chose to do nothing. More question marks than answers on this team. I just don’t see any formidable game plan here. It’s like coloring by numbers. Easy and requires very little imagination.

    • TexasGusCC

      Pete, it would appear that they are hoarders, but, can it be that they can’t make a decision? It appears that every move made has to be an absolute slam dunk that e engine would agree to. As Brian wrote and I later expanded, the Escobar trade was there for them and Cabrera is a speedster that can play both middle positions. The Mets are not, repeat not, expected to win the World Series. So, why not see what your youngsters MDD, Puello, and Kirk can do and save the draft pick? Between signing Granderson early and signing Cuddyer early to lose a draft pick both times, it appears their motivation is to find a recognizable name. Be it to sell tickets, be it they don’t trust their kids, Flores should have been playing last year, Abreu had no business on this team, and their two signings scream “reach”.

  • pete

    Amen to that Gus! I’m with you. I said the same thing about Abreu! And they had the gall to bring him back again in September! There is no master plan here. Just keep hoarding pitchers and see what happens next year.

  • Pete

    Gus 2015 has the same feel as 2014. The front office exchanges Cuddyer for CY. We still don’t know about Flores. Hopefully Colon doesn’t implode every 6 starts. By the way pitching to a 4 ERA is pretty lousy for a SP making 11 million dollars. We hope TDA can cut down on his pass balls and continue his surge in hitting. One last thought. For a team that so desperately needs defense to win games I have my doubts about the statue defense up the middle and TDA’s ability to throw out runners. Maybe? Just maybe everything comes together. Let’s hope so. Otherwise we’re in for another losing season.

  • TexasGusCC

    There isn’t room to add a thought to the conversation between James Preller and Brian Joura above, but I totally agree with Brian and want to add that Keith Hernandez, who is an intelligent and successful MLB hitter, feels that MDD has a bright future. I would further the thought by saying that once he masters the consistent hitting approach, he can, like Murphy has done, look to drive the ball. Now, Murphy is a middle infielder and MDD is an outfielder. But none of us have learned if we haven’t tried and maybe failed first. I would rather give a MDD/Kirk combo a chance with Mayberry the platoon than sign Cuddyer and lose a pick as well.

    • Chris F

      I’m not at all against that, sort of. Had this been 2014, I’m in. But we need to really be playing for real, and seeing if denDekker and Capt Kirk are a good platoon is a day late and a dollar short…hmm…so is playing Flores for that matter. Maybe the 81.5 over/under on the Mets is spot on. Looks like another tryout year…sort of…the Mets way.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

The maximum upload file size: 100 MB. You can upload: image, audio, video, document, spreadsheet, interactive, text, archive, code, other. Links to YouTube, Facebook, Twitter and other services inserted in the comment text will be automatically embedded. Drop file here