Much is often made of good defense on championship teams. But defense is hard to quantify. Take for example the drastic difference between the 2014 Champion San Francisco Giants who had a team DRS of -5, versus the runner-up Kansas City Royals, who scored a 40, the fourth-best team DRS in baseball. The Cincinnati Reds scored the best team DRS with 67, and they lost 86 games, so it’s understandable to be confused by how this stat relates to success.
DRS (Defensive Runs Saved) is basically what it sounds like, a number representing the runs saved by a player’s defensive prowess above or below average, which in this case is zero. Team DRS collects those pluses and minuses from each player on the team. But what does that mean to great teams? Last year 14 teams had a DRS above zero. The Mets ranked 12th-best with a team DRS of 17. Seven of the 10 teams that went to the playoffs had a team DRS above average, and the Cardinals, Royals, Orioles, Pirates, Athletics and Dodgers were ranked in the top 10. In 2013, only four playoff teams had a negative team DRS, but the year before, only four teams had a positive team DRS. The champion Giants that year were again just below average with a -7.
Seemingly the Giants alone help prove that superb defense isn’t required to earn a ring, or even a seat at the playoffs. The 2013 Royals had a phenomenal 93 team DRS, and didn’t make the playoffs. But generally better defensive teams have an advantage. If a team can at least stay close to league average in team DRS, there’s a better shot at October baseball. Couple that with a team whose primary strength is pitching, like the Giants in 2012 and 2014 and the Mets of 2015, and you can see why defense is important, though not the end-all-be-all answer to winning games. So where does that leave the Mets this year?
Curtis Granderson scored a zero in DRS in right field last year, and Lucas Duda was actually a five at first base. Neither was considered a defensive strength for the Mets last year, but neither was the liability they were occasionally portrayed to be. David Wright had a DRS of 13, and that was with people questioning some of his throws to first. Juan Lagares was otherworldly, helping to make up for Daniel Murphy’s -10, and Travis d’Arnaud’s -15. That’s what passed balls will do for you. Michael Cuddyer has been a consistent negative defensively in right field for years now, and not much is likely to change there. The seemingly consensus question mark moving into this season is Wilmer Flores, who received a negative three in almost 440 innings at shortstop.
It’s true that the Mets are defensively weak up the middle, the traditional strength of old-school baseball thinking. Apart from our gifted centerfielder, d’Arnaud, Murphy and Flores all look to repeat below average defensively. At first glance, this could play havoc on turning double-plays and balls dribbling through the infield, not to mention those hitting the backstop. But are they going to be bad enough to ruin the season? That is quite unlikely. As the Giants have shown, teams can reach the playoffs and win championships with defense that is either average or slightly below. You don’t have to catch every single ball or field every grounder cleanly to put a competitive team out there on a daily basis. Murphy, Cuddyer and Flores would all have to be dramatically worse than their past performances to severely drag down the team’s overall DRS score from last year. That means there are holes in the defense, but when looked at through a realistic eye it probably won’t end up being the defining element of the team’s success or failure.
And there are reasons to be positive about the overall team defense. Cuddyer is probably the first guy on the team who will be yanked in blowout games, giving plenty of defensive time to Kirk Nieuwenhuis, John Mayberry Jr. and Matt den Dekker late in games. Murphy will be trade bait for a majority of the season, unless the team is in severe contention. So either the team gets better defensively by extracting Murphy, or they prove they can overcome his glove deficiencies and succeed despite them. Meanwhile Flores, everyone’s big worry this past winter, has shown glimmers of average ability at shortstop. If Murphy does indeed get traded, Flores might slide over to second, where his lack of range would be more tolerably accepted. So for all the worry about Flores up the middle, he’s really not the big difference maker on defense that people are making him out to be.
The real worry is actually Granderson, who will likely be playing left field next year. He’s logged only 216 innings of play in left for his entire career. That’s less time than Flores had at shortstop last year, remember. Cuddyer has played even less in left, but if you’re going to have a guaranteed negative defensive player in your outfield, why make it worse by moving two players out of position and creating potentially two negative DRS holes. The logic of that move is confounding, but the powers that be seem to think it’s the better option.
Even if Granderson can’t adjust to left, Cuddyer stinks it up in right, Flores is Murphy-level bad at SS, and Murphy stays Murphy-level bad at 2B, the Mets still aren’t that horrendous. Chris Young was just barely average over his time in left and center field last year, so it’s not like the Mets have lost a major piece to the puzzle there. And yet the team on a whole was still pretty good defensively in 2014, despite all the negative spots already accounted for.
Flores, Duda and d’Arnaud will see more regular time at their current positions, creating some mild hope that they might actually improve their fielding rather than the reverse. The hot corner and center field are locked down with positive elements. There are very capable defensive players on the bench, and the minors runneth over with replacement-level players and capable gloves. So Cuddyer, Granderson, Flores and Murphy would have to be so collectively bad they not only overcame the positive aspects of the rest of the team, but they would have to be so pitiful that they dragged losses away from wins on a regular basis. While anything is possible, its seems just as possible that Granderson remains an average fielder, and Flores and Murphy create only a slightly negative pair over second base. Assuming Cuddyer is a statue in right, the team still has a chance to compete.
Sure this can be construed as pie-in-the-sky thinking, but it’s based more in facts that the “eye test.” I love the eye test because you can tell a lot about a player in a single encapsulated moment. You see a great play, you call it a great play, and you’re done. However, it’s just one moment. DRS evaluates defense over a bigger impression, and even those numbers can’t tell the entire story of how someone will play defensively year to year.
A lot has to go correctly for the Mets to be a playoff threat this year, and defense is no exception. But it isn’t the make or break aspect of the game it’s been made out to be. The Mets, for the most part, look to be an average defensive team. If team DRS can predict anything, it means that the Mets have a chance. And as Lloyd Christmas taught us, even a one in a million chance, is still a chance.
Cant wait to see how many runners advance to third on ground balls through the right side. Just what the pitching staff will need. More opportunities for Collins to play match ups with runners on the corners. Is the defense going to bad? Yes. I wonder why the Giants defense rated so low on DRS? Maybe the stat is irrelevant in a teams overall performance? Patrick it’s going to be a very long painful summer. Hopefully TC will be watching from his home after the All-Star break.
Just eyeballing the stats, i would guess that defensive stats have the least amount of correlation with winning percentage, and by quite a margin too.
That’s not to say it doesn’t matter, but it’s clearly secondary to pitching and offense.
The thing with broad metrics, defensive or any other, is that game situation is totally lost. That doesn’t invalidate the data collection or useage, but it is always framed at a scale different than an in-game moment.
We keep hearing about 10 extra wins. But that is predicated on doing the fine things that 90 win teams do. Like pete says, we will see a timely hit by someone up the middle that could go for a DP by plus defenders, yet will end up with runners at first and third, no out. That’s where games are lost. We’ve seen plenty of that already. And the Flores/Murphy combo guarantees more of it.
Unless the offense improves quite a bit to offset that and d’Arnaud’s erratic defense, it’s gonna be a long season.
As for OF, I’m less worried because I think this season Lagares actually “breaks out” as a field general. Yes yes, he won the GG, and easily could have 2, but with avg to below avg defenders left and right we are going to see the range really extended to the gaps. I’d like to see him put the stars on his shoulder and be a real general of the outfield corps. I’m also looking forward to seeing Wright — and I’m very positive about his return despite a lot of naysayers in the chatteratti class on tv and radio and print. He is so premium with the glove that he is incredible to watch. If his arm has recovered like we are told, then his defensive shortcomings should vanish. By the way, I think Duda’s play at 1B was overall pretty inspired, except for in foul ground where he looks quite awkward still.
Sadly, I think the defensive holes that Alderson has been aware of for some time will remain and become ever more visible when the expectations are so high from the FO.
Wasn’t one of the things that torpedoed the season last year our woeful record early on in one run games? That is where defense shows up negatively or positively. Also the better competition you are playing the more giving an extra out here and an extra base there comes back to haunt you and there again was another weak spot on the team last year, we didn’t fair to well against the better teams. Defense is under valued by the metrics community I get it but anybody that doesn’t think it is a serious threat to influence our season negatively is being naive.
The difference between making the playoffs this year or not is going to be in making the most of our one run game opportunities against the better teams, if our defense isn’t up to snuff it will be our downfall.
There were several close games lost early last season but I believe the terrible bullpen was more responsible than the defense.
The fact that Cuddyer will be “yanked in blowout games” has absolutely no impact on the measurement of whether his defense will affect the won-lost record.
Defensive stats like DRS—how is that defined/measured? I’m a little more concerned with EOC—Extra Outs Created….increased opportunities for opposition via lack of playmaking ability by individual defenders and combinations of those defenders. The contiguous partnership of d’Arnaud-Duda-Murphy-Flores is one such uninterrupted string of weak defenders. They are little help to themselves, much less each other.
The outfield may fair better— Lagares and/or den Decker will cover many lapses.
Eraff, I’m so there with you on EOC. My fear is how much playing more than 27 outs per game will take a toll on the pitching. That will not help Wheeler increase his length per outing, and then leverages more and more to the pen, and Collins’ serial abuse of it.
Aside from the obvious three things we can all agree on as bell weather indicators for this seasons squad (Wright, Harvey, and Flores), I see the following things as critical to the the team:
X – defense. We are weak behind the plate, in the middle infield, and in the corner outfield spots.
Y – pen. With all love love fest for the pen, I’m a naysayer, particularly the 8th and 9th. Mejia is troubling with a WHIP of 1.45 and a shaky defense behind him. He needs to have every ball in play caught, but I can’t see it. Parnell is a total unknown at this point.
Z – bench. I think we are lacking mlb talent on the bench. Everyone knows how critical replacement guys are in October and I don’t feel all that good about who can come in.
Look, it’s one thing to argue that bad defense can be overcome by power pitching and quality offense.
But it’s another to argue that bad defense isn’t really that bad after all.
I’m not buying a word of this post.
Chris, I like the Live BP Arms…. and the bench is possibly better— Mayberry is an MLB Player. Tejada is an MLB Player. Recker and Newee as well….. and the guys competing with them have some indication of being guys you can use.
I don’t trust the defense…. the team is slow…. there is no leadoff hitter
Not sure d’Arnaud will really be that shaky in the field. I did a fair amount of research earlier this winter, and while his offense leads his future, he’s never been a poor defender. Not super toolsy, but has enough ability that when polished has been average throughout the minors. Considering he’s developing his pitch-framing skillset, I’d expect him to be a non-factor in terms of this story in the not-too-distant future.
And for what it’s worth, even with the shaky defense last year, the Mets didn’t have a major problem giving up runs compared to playoff teams. It was scoring runs. https://mets360.com/?p=23215
The thing is Charlie, if you fix the offensive production, then the Mets gave up far too many runs. Given we are a pitching centric team, does it not make sense to fix all the leaks with the gloves as a priority? Simply assuming Wright is better would give us more production, so firming up the defense would seem a high level priority to these eyes.
Chris when the defense starts to give opposing teams extra at-bats the wear and tear on the pitching staff will take its toll. I was hoping that the idea would be to have an above average defense to off set Collins’ over utilization of the bull pen.. Maybe if the Mets are winning late MDD and Capt. Kirk will cover the corners?
“Pitch Framing” is driving me Crazy— it’s a Saber Speak phrase that doesn’t have a true stat attached…although some will claim it does…..and most of you who quote the concept have absolutely nothing other than the phrase to back it up.
Please show me the specific d’Arnaud versus Recker “Pitch Framing” stat that shows differentiation.
Eraff, if you are curious about any info on stats, a quick Google search will get you there.
I’m with you on the skepticism about the new-fangled, oft-quoted “pitch framing” stat.
It’s time to reread Whitman’s “Learn’d Astronomer.”
If you’re okay with a catcher that has 12 pass balls (and no knuckle ball pitcher to attribute for that) and throws out runners below the average for NL catchers than maybe your standard for “shaky” is not as high as mine. Hopefully TDA will cut down on those mistakes. Between Murphy and Flores playing statue defense, average or just below average fielding is going to be the expectation. I think this year the Mets will put runners on base as they normally do. The question is will anyone be able to step up and drive those runners in scoring position in this year on a consistent basis?
Defensively with Cuddyer in right, Murphy at second and TDA catching is similar to the offensively challenged EY, Tejada and the pitcher in 2014. Three holes in the lineup. Last year it was the offense this year it will be defense. Sandy has difficulty constructing a balanced roster.
In Sandy’s defense, he’s not really trying to build a great team. It doesn’t pay in today’s MLB.
Game 163 or Bust!
ugh. That’s just horrible to imagine. The Mets are not the Giants or Cards.
Chris, seriously, don’t you think that’s “the plan”? Get invited to the crapshoot and roll the dice.
Despite all the bold talk this Spring, nobody is mentioning winning the Division.
Hi James, oh I think you are 100% spot on — it just bums me out to no end because the WCs that have been successful are really good teams not just fly by night operations.
I disagree James. With the budget constraints Alderson has no choice but to build a team that has the potential to get into the playoffs. Teams with potential don’t always draw well. Good teams draw well at home James. Great teams draw even better. It allows those teams to invest in talent which may or may not come to fruition. The Cardinals draw 3 million+ at home every year. Being a consistent winner gives them the flexibility to not have to rush their kids in their farm system. I’ll take the Cardinals methodology any time over Alderson’s money ball.
Actually, it’s pretty easy to find good analysis of d’Arnaud’s pitch framing using the Google on the interwebs. Here’s a nice article by Rob Castellano on a neighboring site, with useful links embedded:
http://www.amazinavenue.com/2014/8/27/6044493/mets-travis-darnaud-pitch-blocking-framing
I seems like d’Arnaud’s defense is underrated because he is below average at the two most obvious defensive tasks of a catcher: throwing out runners and blocking balls. But by all reports, he is above average at calling games and receiving. (I think he could learn to be more selective about the situations and pitches where he risks a passed ball by trying too hard to steal a strike.) Anyway, I think it’s an exaggeration to say he is very far from average on defense.
Likewise, Duda is a pretty average fielder who gets tagged with the butcher label because he lumbers. Flores, to his credit, has shown so far (in a fairly small sample) that he is merely below average at SS. He is a potential concern, but the real worries on defense for this team are in the corner outfield spots: Grandy’s noodle arm in LF, Cuddyer’s stone feet in RF, and Murphy’s boney head in shallow RF. The jury is out on whether Flores’ and Cuddyer’s offense will offset their defense. Unfortunately, we already know that Grandy’s defensive limitations are exacerbated by his prodigious talent for striking out, while Murphy’s fielding antics are mirrored by his improvisational humor on the base paths.