Too many times in this blog I’ve written about the foolishness of the LOOGY approach to baseball. In most of those, the focus has been on the unbelievably crappy overall performance of the Mets’ lefty relievers under the Alderson/Collins regime. Today, let’s focus on the righty relievers.
In 2014, the average NL righty had a .712 OPS against versus lefty batters. Here’s how RHRP for the Mets did last year versus lefties:
.821 – Jeurys Familia
.680 – Carlos Torres
.665 – Vic Black
.647 – Jenrry Mejia
.625 – Buddy Carlyle
.606 – Bobby Parnell (2013)
.583 – Erik Goeddel
Familia is the only one who should have his usage against lefties restricted. The rest are all better than average.
Keep this in mind the next time that Alderson – or anyone else – talks about how crucial LHRP are.
I was disappointed that this one didn’t show up in the “Related Posts” section:
LOOGY history and the Mets’ dismal failure with the approach
mets360.com/?p=24350
But would an infield without a shortstop be alright?
Statistically speaking, you may valid points, but it does overlook the fact that most managers don’t like the lefty/lefty matchups and a lefty specialist often causes a pinch hitter and thins an oppositions bench. maybe they shouldn’t do it, but they do and it is valuable to have a specialist that forces the move
What good is that if your lefty specialist has to face a RHB? Which would you rather have – any of the team’s righty relievers facing a lefty or Scott Rice versus a righty? If you think Familia’s .821 OPS against lefties is bad, how would you describe Rice’s 1.002 OPS lifetime against righties?
I am with you Brian. And no lefty in the pen should create less one batter usage, which has additional benefits.
Sign me up!
I agree that a loogy is mostly pointless, but I do like the idea of a lefty in the bullpen to give a different look, buy only if they are effective against righties. That was Edgin, so I’d agree with this point.
I love a solid lefty in the pen, especially late in the game against big hitters who struggle against LHP.
It’s a great weapon to have. Statistics back this up. Look at Ryan Howard’s splits. Or Duda’s, etc.
However, if you don’t have one of those guys — and surely SA has been disinclined to find one — then it’s better to have an all-around quality RHP.
My worry with Warthen/Collins is that they have been unable to think outside the box. You know, absolutely, that they’d destroy Matz if given the opportunity, reflexively getting him up in the pen 125 times in a season.
Again, folks, SA has been standing on this track for more than 4 years. It’s no surprise this train is coming, we’ve seen it from a long way off. Edgin has never been able to pitch one full season for the Mets; his career best is 31 IP.
GM’s are allowed to make trades, shift resources. For some reason, that all seems like too much work for the Mets. If we don’t have any decent LHP, let’s use our best pitchers, period, and in the process create a new model for bullpen usage. You might even be able to get away with an 11-man staff if you did away entirely with the LOOGY concept, thereby fortifying your offense and defense in the process.
Worth considering.
Screw the lefty. Let’s go with only 6 guys in the pen!
Sandy Alderson is a baseball maverick, with a book to back it up! Trades are for losers, a true innovator does nothing.
I’m rooting for Sandy like crazy for two reasons:
1. I am a Mets fan
2. If doing nothing is the new market efficiency huge personal success is imminent.
What I meant to say, re: the robotic Collins/Warthen tandem, is that a bullpen without a LHP creates a new opportunity for thinking outside the box. It could allow the Mets to use only 6 relievers, therefore strengthening the bench.
I think this has 0% chance of happening.
And that’s too bad.
And the ultimate irony is that with one fewer reliever, the pitchers would probably end up with fewer games pitched! Instead of jumping through hoops to play matchups and use three relievers in an inning, we’d now use just one.
Exactly. It could save arms. The LOOGY was always a luxury toy. With starting pitchers going shorter and shorter durations and rosters still at 25 is it a smart luxury?
An awesome tricked out car is nice, but I wouldnt pick it over having a home to live in.
The Mets don’t need a lefty in the pen and this post statistically proves it.
The Mets certainly don’t need a LOOGY. Since TC and Alderson are so inclined to have a LOOGY then Sandy should have signed Joe Beimel. He was available as recently as March 6th and he was coming off a quality year. He signed for a non guaranteed major league contract of $1.5M and incentives with Texas. $1.5M for a quality lefty relief pitcher is chump change for a “supposed” playoff team. Sandy did not want to sign a vet because it would have ended the competition. If Beimel was signed, under those terms,then there still would have been competion. That non move, just like the LaTroy Hawkins non move of last year, makes the Mets look cheap.
They aren’t cheap, they are selective with every penny, LOL!!
The Mets are not cheap. They’re broke and over their salary cap. It’s just a poor allocation of funds when you have Gee going to the pen to work long relief at 5 million+
Unfortunately Collins arcane ideas are going to win out and the Mets are going to carry a lefty regardless if he is efficient or not. TC and company will decide to take one LF RP even if he is ineffectual. Sometimes it’s difficult for old people to let go of an idea that worked when they were younger. Collins will simply blame his pitcher for not doing the job he was assigned to do never realizing that it’s his ideas that are not working.
Collins doesn’t make the roster. The GM does.
I’ve got to him some credit here, Collins has actually come out and said that he could forsee a bullpen with all righties.
Alderson then quickly squashed that idea by saying that he doesn’t foresee that.
I don’t get people who say that Collins is just a puppet of Alderson. This offseason has shown more than a few times where they clearly are not “in sync”
Name I think sometimes Alderson and his analytics is like trying to put a round block in a square cube. He has to find a LOOGY at any cost! Even if he can’t pitch.
LOOGY as differentiated from LHP— if the pitcher is lefty-lefty only, he had better be effective….and he needs to be conditioned to facing just one guy. It drives me crazy, but it can be tough to argue against a Perpetutal Pedro Coming in to face a Ryan Howard and/or Chase Utley.
and this point is great!!!… “Trades are for losers, a true innovator does nothing.”
The problem with that is there just aren’t enough LHB that are neutralized by a lefty pitcher to make one worthwhile to carry. Ryan Howard is the one that everyone trots out and three years ago, that was true. But he had a .658 OPS against RHP last year. His days as a premier player are over.
I would rather have Montero in the bullpen — where he belongs — than sift through the detritus of guys like Leathersich & Rice. Go with the 11-man staff.
Then you can add Matt den Decker to the bench for speed, defense, and an additional LH-bat.
Sandy Alderson must begin to manage the flow of talent or we will see more and more inefficiencies throughout the system.
He’s got to start making some tough decisions.
Montero may wind up in the bullpen – that’s where both Johan Santana and Pedro Martinez got their start. But I cannot disagree with you more over that being where he belongs.
I know you’ll be shocked here, but let’s assume Alderson makes no trades. Furthermore, let’s say he goes with the all-righty, six-man pen you’ve advocated here. The bullpen would be: Mejia, Familia, Black, Torres, Carlyle and Gee.
Montero goes to Las Vegas and spends more time with Viola working on his changeup. There were two easily correctable things from what we saw in the majors last year. He didn’t throw enough changeups and they always called him to pitch low and outside. And even with those two issues, he only allowed 2 ER in his last 18 IP as a SP, with 19 Ks
Brian, regarding the early part of your article, Santana was a Rule 5 pickup drafted out of ‘A’ ball, so they hid him in the bullpen and just went with six guys. Pedro on the other hand was part of a talented Dodgers pitching corp and was labeled as not durable because of his smaller frame.
That explains the year 2000 for Santana. Now explain 2001 and 2002 and 2003.
The Dodgers did have a good rotation in 1993 but the problem was at least as much as they didn’t think Pedro was a SP as the fact that Kevin Gross and Pedro Astacio were on the team. They’re the ones who have to live with trading him for pennies on the dollar because they completely botched their evaluation.
Aaron Gleeman had a “free Johan Santana” campaign for years over at his terrific blog. He was beside himself that the Twins wouldn’t give him a spot in the rotation.
Can’t explain it Brian. Only writing what I know. Seems like they were nurturing him at the big league level.
I like Montero, and misstated my thoughts. I was more reading the lay of the land, where clearly Syndergaard and Matz has leapfrogged over him in the eyes of management.
I think it’s very likely he’s got the goods to be an ML starter right now.
But after you do the math, it just doesn’t look like there’s room in the rotation for Montero.
As for the pen, Black has arm problems already and who knows if Gee (and his $5 million) will be around. Too soon to figure out the roster. My larger point is that Montero seems to be the forgotten man in camp.
You make an excellent point but I disagree. For te Ryan Howards of the league alone we need a lefty option. We could have gotten Phil Coke or Craig Breslow but thoughtfully passed.
Breslow is bouncing back from a bad year. That said, although he’s historically better against lefties- He also has historically been a guy who pitches to Lefties and righties. Not really a Lefty-Only type.
Late to this discussion, but here’s a question: does anyone really think the Mets wouldn’t be better off, using Montero rather than Josh Edgin? Montero is the better pitcher, period.
Someone might have mentioned this, but one of the better teams from the last thirty years was the 1994 Montreal Expos, who I believe got three and one third innings from bullpen lefthanders all season. “All season” in 1994 meant all the way to August 11th, when the owners shut down the season over a labor dispute; but that team was on a pace to win 100 games, and nary a lefthander did their bullpen have.
Great factoid! I didn’t know that.
I do think there’s an adjustment time for starters to the bullpen. Perhaps Montero would take to it like a duck to water, I don’t know. But Edgin was a very solid reliever in 2014. Unfortunately, his manager’s usage of him (probably) contributed to his downfall.
I just want guys who can get anyone out. And I think we have a few guys like that.