Anyone familiar with the children’s tale Henny Penny knows the moral of the story: Beware of those who predict calamity, especially with zero justification. We would be wise to remember the lessons of Henny Penny when it comes to the “calamity” of not having multiple lefty relievers on the team. Few things will have less of a positive impact on the 2015 Mets than the success of lefty relievers.
The next time someone goes on and on about the need for lefty relievers, simply ask them where’s the proof. And don’t accept platitudes or rationalizations as proof. That’s not proof – it’s a smokescreen to deflect one from actually thinking about the issue in any productive manner. Because if you think about it for any length of time, you’ll come to the conclusion that relying on the LOOGY gambit is no way to run a ball club.
In 2014, 58% of the PA by NL batters were by righties. Yet Terry Collins was able to get his LOOGYs many more PA against lefties. Josh Edgin had 66% of his PA against LHB and Scott Rice had a whopping 79% of his PA against lefties. If you’re not impressed by these figures – go check the percentage of PA that other lefty relievers have the platoon advantage. Let’s check the NL East for lefty relievers with at least 20 IP and see how often they faced LHB:
53% – Louis Avilan (ATL)
51% – Mike Dunn (MIA)
50% – Jerry Blevins (WSN)
48% – Dan Jennings (MIA)
44% – Mario Hollands (PHI)
42% – James Russell (CHC/ATL)
35% – Jake Diekman (PHI)
35% – Antonio Bastardo (PHI)
35% – Ross Detwiler (WSN)
Collins was able to do this because of a slavish devotion to chasing matchups.
Due to the Mets’ insistence on placing their lefty relievers in the most advantageous positions possible, they blew their NL East rivals out of the water in the percentage of lefty batters their lefty relievers faced. Despite this, and despite the fact that Edgin and Dana Eveland had strong years, the Mets’ lefty relievers last year were below average in ERA compared to NL relievers as a whole. Makes you wonder why they jump through all of those hoops.
Imagine for a second that Collins and the Mets had this single-minded devotion to make a different type of reliever successful. Instead of playing matchups for the benefit of his lefty relievers, what if the Mets looked to maximize the benefit of a righty reliever? And for the sake or argument, let’s say that Collins picked Kyle Farnsworth to receive this preferential treatment.
Almost no one shed a tear when the Mets cut Farnsworth last year. All you hear now is how wonderful it is that the Mets don’t have any rejects like Jose Valverde and Farnsworth kicking around the pen this year. The Mets brought back Rice on an NRI but wouldn’t touch Farnsworth with a 10-foot pole.
And Farnsworth was miles better than Rice last year, even without any special treatment.
With Collins bending over backwards to present Rice with the most favorable matchups possible, he posted a 5.93 ERA, and a 1.976 WHIP before being mercifully sent to the minors. Meanwhile Farnsworth, with no special treatment whatsoever, was run out of town after recording a 3.18 ERA and a 1.412 WHIP.
The average NL reliever had a 3.53 ERA in 2014.
What if the Mets decided to maximize the performance of Farnsworth instead of Rice? Farnsworth at age 38 was not suited to pitching back-to-back days. In appearances where he had at least one day off between games, Farnsworth gave up 3 ER in 13.2 IP, good for a 1.98 ERA.
Instead of bringing in Rice for one and two-batter performances and then count on everyone else to make up the slack – imagine if Collins manipulated the rest of the pen to benefit Farnsworth. In reality, Farnsworth pitched 17 innings in less than a month and a half with the Mets. Since the regular season is six months long, he theoretically could have delivered 68 innings if he pitched the full season.
Meanwhile, Rice pitched 13.2 innings in a little over two months of action. Theoretically, he could have delivered around 40 innings in a full season. How many leaps of faith do you have to perform to imagine that Rice’s 40 innings would be more valuable than Farnsworth’s 68 innings? Then factor in that every time Rice is in the game, the Mets have to sweat it out if the other team will PH a righty batter, completely rendering him useless. There are no such concerns with Farnsworth.
Just to make it crystal clear, this is not in any way, shape or form an endorsement of Farnsworth. It’s just an illustration to point out the absurdity of how the Mets run their bullpen. Why is it okay to run your bullpen to the benefit of a guy who throws with his left hand rather than an old guy who needs rest?
Honestly, would you rather have a guy who could put up an ERA in the neighborhood of 2.00 in around 70 innings or a guy who is useless against 60% of the league and who last year lefties punished, too? Why on earth would you invite Rice back to camp in 2015?
But, but, but you’ve got to have a lefty reliever to neutralize the tough lefty batters in the late innings – you’ve just got to! How else are you going to get Ryan Howard out? Well, in 2014, Howard had a .658 OPS versus RHP and a .770 OPS versus LHP. He’s no longer a premier player and he’s no longer an automatic out against southpaws.
The bottom line is that there just are not enough lefty batters that are neutralized by lefty pitchers to make carrying a guy who cannot face RHB a winning proposition. Here’s the list of lefty batters in the NL to have at least 50 PA versus lefties last year who had an OPS 100 points lower against LHP than overall:
Adrian Gonzalez
Jason Heyward
Adam LaRoche
Justin Morneau
Matt Adams
Lucas Duda
Miguel Montero
Alexi Amarista
Gerardo Parra
Grady Sizemore
Corey Dickerson
Luis Valbuena
Gregory Polanco
Pedro Alvarez
David Peralta
Garrett Jones
Will Venable
Andre Ethier
That’s it – 18 players that you should make sure face a lefty late in the game whenever possible. And it should be pointed out that Heyward, LaRoche and Jones have all left the NL East, with only Heyward even remaining in the NL. That leaves Sizemore and Duda among NL East hitters. And since Duda is on the Mets, that sort of limits the chances of our LOOGY facing him.
Meanwhile, here’s the list from the same pool of lefty hitters outlined below who hit within five points of their overall OPS versus southpaws:
Anthony Rizzo (.928 vs. .913 overall)
Carl Crawford (.881 vs. .767)
Brandon Crawford (.879 vs. .713)
John Jay (.859 vs. .750)
Christian Yelich (.819 vs. 764)
Tommy La Stella (.818 vs. .644)
Kolten Wong (.790 vs. .680)
Ryan Howard (.770 vs. .690)
Bryce Harper (.765 vs. .768)
Ben Revere (.763 vs .686)
Curtis Granderson (.742 vs. .718)
Cody Asche (.733 vs. .699)
Gregor Blanco (.730 vs. .707)
Dee Gordon (.719 vs. .704)
That’s 14 players who performed just as good, or better, against lefties as righties. But you can be sure that if Harper, Howard or Rizzo is coming to the plate that Collins will make sure he faces a lefty.
So, there are not enough lefties that are neutralized, there are nearly as many lefties who fare just as well versus southpaws as they do overall and the opposing manager always has the option to pinch-hit with a righty batter. Sure, a manager’s not going to PH for Heyward. But he’s going to do that for Montero, Amarista, Parra, Dickerson, Valbuena and others with the game on the line.
And to carry a LOOGY you have to ask every other pitcher on the staff to pick up the slack for all of the batters he simply cannot face. It’s nearly 60% of the league on the surface and the number only gets bigger once you factor in lefty batters not fazed with a southpaw on the mound or lefty batters who simply are not very good. Do you really need a lefty on the hill to retire the Domonic Browns and the Nate Schierholtz’ of the world?
The calamity is carrying a LOOGY in the first place, not facing the prospect of being able to carry your best relievers. Losing Edgin hurts not because he was a lefty but because he was a good pitcher. If the Mets want to have the best bullpen possible, they’ll replace Edgin with the best pitcher, not the next lefty on the depth chart.
Please forward your post to Sandy Alderson since he’s the one signing players for the 25 man roster. Why is it that we judge a starter based on his abilities to get to 6 or 7 innings? Which means he has to be able to get batters out from both sides of the plate while we have a different criteria for relievers? By adding 1 or 2 LOOGY’S (god help us if it’s 2) you weaken your bench and add unnecessary pressure to the pen. Didn’t the Angels last year go without a lefty in their pen? How did they do? Wouldn’t a manager prefer to have a pitcher who can get Any batter out? Can we at least hope that Collins gets this and gives the Mets a chance at a wild card? Deep down I’m hoping he pours it on us with his LOOGY and it blows up in his face. Good bye Terry. Thanks for all your wonderful ideas and contributions.
Are you comparing Scoscia to Collins? Good hitters want the weaker pitcher no matter what hand he throws with. I’m thinking Alderson wants to get this fool a lefty so he won’t get the “poor, poor Terry wasn’t given a lefty” excuses that the press likes to give this moron.
Alderson must agree with TC’s handling of the bullpen.
I didn’t exactly need convincing but wow, good work.
Brian Joura, clouding the issue with facts. Well done.
I still think a “good” LHP would be an asset, but the idea of using a guy just because he’s LH is obviously poor management. In Sandy Alderson’s world, the Mets ideally have two of these useless pitchers.
In four seasons, the Alderson/Collins combo has never had a meaningful game. Nothing has mattered. Now for the first time ever, the games should actually matter. And for the first time, all these little judgments will come under the microscope. I do not believe that TC will bear the scrutiny. At which point, people might start looking at how Sandy falls short, too. You know, when it comes to actually winning ML games.
Shooting for a shot at Game 163 is not enough.
JP
Fantastic article Brian !!!!!
The Mets don’t need a lefty in the pen. In a properly used bullpen you need three good relievers and the better the three are the better the bullpen. If the starter goes six and leaves with a lead then those three relievers come in to pitch the 7th, 8th and 9th. If the starter goes into the 8th adjust accordingly using only 2 of the 3. In a tie game bring in the three for two inning stints. This general rule is not rocket science and alleviates the burnout of the bullpen with pitchers warming up and sitting down. The next three in the bullpen eat innings when the team is behind and should be conditioned to go two innings. The long man is there so that if your starter fails early he can get you to the 7th inning for the “B” relievers.
Bullpen management is not rocket science. Bullpen mismanagement can sabotage a playoff spot. I am not comfortable and disagree with TC’s bullpen management.
But Metsense, haven’t you heard? He’s a baseball lifer that keeps the clubhouse together and the players play hard for him. Anything in there remind you of Miller Huggins? I think Jerry Seinfield could qualify.
But, the powers that be are happy with him, and we spend hours and hours giving a damn.
I said it before but they need Venditte,the switch pitcher, the way TC treats his relievers.
Or he could give his relievers some training in playing left field, so he can swap LH / RH relievers without bringing them out of the game after a switch.