Remember this cover story? Sports Illustrated wasn’t alone. The Sporting News, ESPN the magazine and pretty much every baseball season preview anointed the Washington Nationals the 2015 World Series favorite. Nearly every baseball writer aside from this one picked the Nationals to run away with the National League East. Who could blame them? They won the division handily last year with a 96-win season and added a Cy Young Award winner to what was already considered the best pitching staff in baseball. With a six-deep power rotation and a lineup full of proven veterans and promising kids, how could this team miss?
On paper they were the team to beat with Cy Young zillionaire Max Scherzer atop a rotation of fireballer Stephen Strasburg, the young stud Jordan Zimmermann, crafty lefty Gio Gonzalez, righty hurler Doug Fister and rookie 15-game winner Tanner Roark. The bullpen, even with the departures of Rafael Soriano and Tyler Clippard, still featured the effective Drew Storen, Matt Thornton, Aaron Barrett and Craig Stammen, plus they added Jonathan Papplebon at the trade deadline. The lineup, while not the ’27 Yankees, was stacked with proven veterans like Jayson Werth, Denard Span, Ian Desmond and Ryan Zimmerman, as well as emerging young stars like Bryce Harper and Anthony Rendon. Even Wilson Ramos, Yunel Escobar and reserve Danny Espinosa were replacement level players.
Sportswriters and broadcasters were calling this Nationals team “flawless” and “unbeatable.” After signing Scherzer, Sports Illustrated’s Tom Verducci said, the Nationals were “built for October” and Harper asked, half-jokingly, “Where’s my ring?”
Well, in fairness, Harper has held up his end of the bargain, having the type of offensive season that will garner him MVP votes. Scherzer has been as good as advertised, among the league leaders in strikeouts and ERA all season. Jordan Zimmermann has been good, as has Escobar. The rest of the team has been very disappointing. Most of the rest of the Nats’ players have either been battling injuries – Span (61 games played), Strasburg, Rendon (46 games played) – down years – Fister (4.66 ERA, moved to bullpen), Gonzalez (1.48 WHIP), Zimmerman (.224 batting average), Desmond (.661 OPS, 23 errors) – or both – Werth (.205 batting average, only 55 games played). On top of the slumps and lumps, it’s also been speculated by numerous broadcasters and writers that the Nats have a clubhouse problem. Perhaps Matt Williams is not the right fit as their manager or perhaps chemistry is lacking in the dugout and on the field. In any case, that doesn’t appear to be an issue for the division leading New York Mets at the moment.
At this moment the Mets (71-56) sit atop the National League East with a 6 ½ game lead over the second place Nationals (64-62). That’s a nice lead, but with 35 games remaining, including six head-to-head games with the Nationals, it’s a little early to bring on the dancing girls. And the Nats just announced that they’ve shifted their rotation schedule so that Scherzer will pitch in both series against the Mets.
We have momentum on our side and we’re heading home to face the last place Red Sox with our top three guns taking the hill. After that we’ll get three at home against our new favorite punching bag, the Philadelphia Phillies, followed by a day off and then three on the road in Miami. It’s hard to imagine the Mets not taking at least six of the next nine before they go to Washington for the first three-game series on September 7. We may well be able to deliver a knock-out punch.
If the Mets keep playing the way they have been, they’ll finish say, 94-68. To keep pace, the Nats would have to win 30 of their remaining 36 games. If we come back to earth a bit and finish at say, 90-72, the Nats would still have to go 26-10 to hang with us. In fact, even if we backslide a bit, and finish with say, 87 wins, the Nats would still have go 23-13 down the stretch. What was once the Nats’ division is now clearly ours to lose. Whether or not anyone saw this coming six months ago, it feels pretty damn good.
It’s never too early for dancing girls!
If the Mets go 18-17 the rest of the season, the Nationals have to go 25-11 to tie them. Are they capable of doing that? Sure, even if that’s better than they’ve played in any 36-game stretch this year. Sure, they’re capable of doing that, even though they are 6-4 in their last 10 games and were 3-7 in the 10 before that. Sure, they’re capable of that, if they can overcome the injuries they suffered last night.
We’re all in the fetal position because of what happened in 2007 and to a lesser extent, 2008. But given the fortifications to the Mets with injured guys returning, along with Cespedes, Clippard and the bench guys – and the schedule that the Mets have left, it would take a giant meltdown for the Nats to win the division. If someone offered you an even-money bet on the Mets winning the division, I sure hope you would take it.
The Mets hold a half game lead over the Dodgers.
I don’t buy for one second your thesis that we are all so scarred from 2007 that we can’t think straight anymore.
Obviously, it’s likely that the Mets will take it, because they are playing so well. And it’s likely that Nats won’t rally to the extremes where, mathematically, they need to go.
But every season of my life as a fan I’ve seen five game leads evaporate in two weeks or less, involving every team in baseball. Things happen and happen quickly. Teams go cold and teams get hot.
Moreover, I still respect the guys in the Nationals dugout. They’ve won the Division before, they’ve got a number of very good players on that roster, and some tremendous pitching. They may not make a run — but they might.
I’m more confident in the Mets continuing to play well than I am that the Nats won’t.
Yogi said it ain’t over till it’s over a long, long time ago. He knew then what we should all still know now.
It ain’t over — and that fact has nothing to do with 2007.
Heck, I got nervous in 1986 and 2006 when they didn’t clinch when they were “supposed to.”
PS — I was in Philly for 2 of those ’86 non-clinchings…
And how many times have you seen a team with a 6.5 game lead expand it?
Plenty. It works both ways.
Point?
1,000 people got hit by lightning last year. That’s an awful lot. Still, I don’t choose to worry about getting hit by lightning.
Nothing is promised, but as long as the NYM continue to beat up on the lesser competition, unlike in ’07 and ’08, they will be fine. That is the lesson to be learned this season. I’m not sensing that kind of meltdown though.
2011 Boston Red Sox
2012 Miami Marlins
2013 Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim
2015 Washington Nationals
2015 Seattle Mariners
It seems that the “best team on paper” teams never pan out in today’s game…
There are teams that are more than the sum of their parts, and teams that are less than the sum of their parts.
This all falls into the dark, immeasurable realm of intangibles.
What’s the value of Cuddyer and Uribe being in that clubhouse, pulling on the same oar, regardless of their role? What’s the value of Michael Conforto being there, soaking that in, experiencing it?
You know, I worried that Collins might get extremely twitchy during a pennant chase, but he’s been a sea of calm and clear purpose.
Harper has amazing numbers — and he actually says a lot of good things — but that guy is not a leader. I think Rendon is the real star on that team and he’s been injured for too long, and Werth — who I love, who does possess in my estimation the qualities of a winner — has just been a shell of himself.
It’s a fascinating question, what went wrong with that team. They can try to figure it out this off-season. In the meantime, screw ’em.
If anyone has three minutes free, they should click on “The Nats are overrated” piece that’s the first one in the Related Post section above and read the comments section. There’s only 19 comments.
Clearly the Mets are ahead of the Nats because the Mets have sooper genius skipper Terry Collins.He is the difference maker!
On paper the Padres looked like worldbeaters too. Chemistry, intangibles and defense matter. The Nats are a bad defensive team too.
I agree. Rendon is integral to the National’s success. He’s been hurt for most of the year. Injuries can still play a part too. Losing Dernad Span and Michael Taylor could drastically impact how the rest of the Nat’s season goes. The odd misplacement of Storen in the set-up role could also impact the final outcome.
The most important thing to realize is that they play the games for a reason. If we just went on stats and numbers and computer simulations using all forward modeling, the Nats would be in fist place. They are not. There are a ton of X factors that cant be measured ranging from “clubhouse matters” to variables with unaccounted for interdependencies.
There are still a lot of games to play. I dont want to fall into the trap of thinking that on paper were now better and its just a math problem to clinch. That’s a level of hubris and fortune telling that’s up there with Miss Cleo.
What happens if Jacob deGrom blows another UCL? Or Cespedes blows an ACL in a collision sliding into 3B? Neither would surprise anyone. Both are absolutely possible. We dont know. And either would cast a profound doom that could negatively impact the record. I dont anticipate it of course, but for the same reasons the Nats failed to live up, any team can, including the Mets, even at this date. I’ll dance on their graves when the time is appropriate, until then all I want to do is “win win win” — and get some of my closest FO guys in a dark sound proof room formulating post season scenarios in order to be ready should the time be presented.
There are intangibles that are outside the realm of stats.
Uribe as a 36 year old strong club house influence, diving for the ball.
Murphy, batting very high when going after the first pitch, in spite of the organizational-wide Sandy’s mandate to work deep in counts.
The young blood enthusiasm of pure hitting Michael Conforto, as well as his surprising defensive work.
Harvey’s nasty, take no prisoner, hatred of losing, as well as young pitchers egging each other on at the plate, and not just the mound.
Cuddyer: not my favorite signing, but another club house vet who’s October presence may prove of great value.
Addition by subtraction: John Mayberry Jr and Eric Campbell, batting 4 and 5, with .170 average, gone, sending the message: produce, or you, too, could be gone, even with a contract.
Then there is the magic factor…’69 Miracle Mets. Seeing these wild come from behind victory insanity, including Daniel Murphy on defense? It is a lot of fun and there must be some magic left.
If Uribe dives for a ball and makes a play that results in an out — that shows up in the stats.
If Murphy swings at pitches early in the count — that shows up in the stats.
If Michael Conforto plays well offensively and defensively — that shows up in the stats.
If Harvey’s attitude causes him to pitch well — that shows up in the stats.
If pitchers hit — that shows up in the stats.
If you take guys out of the lineup who don’t hit and replace them with guys who do — that shows up in the stats.
If Daniel Murphy makes a great defensive play — that shows up in the stats.
Stats have come a long way for sure but the more obscure ones don’t make the back of the baseball card. Like the one that explains why a bad relief pitcher has a low ERA and a good W-L record (% of inherited runners to score) or why the shortstop who makes the fewest errors isnt the best (range factor) or the one that explains hitting in clutch situations (what sets Jeter apart from Wright in my book).
Stats dont measure pitch selection, coaching decisions, luck, smart play, umpiring, etc.
Chris,
point taken.
When we saw Jacob getting hammered, my wife commented on how pale he looked. It turned out to be a virus, and he should respond, but at any time…
An injury could happen to anyone. Travis D’ will have to show he can play a full year of professional ball. He hit a 464 foot home run: that is power. Kevin Plawecki struggled in offensive replacement.
I watched the just back Lucas Duda stealing in a one run game. All I could think was how he could jam his back sliding into second and what moron would send him…well, he is out, anyway.
Cuddyer, at 36, is better suited part time, though even on the bench, I think he is a positive influence.
Matz’ injury was strange. It could happen.
Bartolo had been struggling before this last outing. This was a pleasant surprise. He seems to stay healthy, come what may.
Injuries are a big factor. Teams like the Yankees who soend money to build a bench have the depth to withstand a few injuries. The Nats look like the ’09 Mets, top heavy with no insurance behind the stars. The Mets were vulnerable in the first half but the additiona of Cespedes, Uribe, Johnson and Conforto have really allowed this team to not miss a beat even when Duda got injured. Now we’re built to win.
Great thoughts, but it all happens, game by game – 3 hours on the field. That’s why this is so much fun! We can speculate, interpolate, extrapolate, and pontificate- but it’s all down to 3 hours inside those lines. Happy times to be watching Mets baseball. Ya’ Gotta Believe!
Editor’s Note — Really, Raff? You know better
Raff – i love the rhyming diatribe. Like Clyde Frazier or Jackie Chiles. Great to aee my fellow Mets fans gettig pumped up.
You forgot “confiscate”, “deflategate”, and “obfuscate”.
Love it. Hopefully we obliterate and celebrate.