Wilmer Flores has had an interesting season, to say the least. Heading into the 2015 campaign there were two big and related questions: how would Flores fair at shortstop and, if he was bad, would his hitting develop to the point where it didn’t matter?
The shortstop experiment sort of ended in late June without much fanfare as the team slid him over to second base with Daniel Murphy‘s return from the disabled list and David Wright‘s continued absence. To say that it was an abject failure wouldn’t be completely accurate, though. Flores wasn’t quite the catastrophe many feared he’d be before the season. That’s not to say that he didn’t have his share of costly and ill-timed mistakes, but advanced defense metrics suggest he was simply a below average defender at short rather than an unmitigated disaster. As a second baseman he’s played rather well. In fact, and as of this writing, he has an UZR/150 of 12.5 in 2015. That would rank as “great,” though we must remember that the larger the sample size with these advanced defense metrics the better.
The second question is what’s really interesting here. Flores slashed a disappointing .252/.286./.395 in the first half of the season with a well below average wRC+ of 89. To be fair, that’s not too far from our Mets360 overall projection of .265/.310/.400. His inability to get on base was starting to become a drag on a lineup that was putting up historically bad numbers, though. He was hitting for a bit of power, and then he stopped, essentially negating the most positive aspect of his offensive performance during the early going. Then “the cry” happened and Flores, Mets folk hero, emerged.
What was so amazing about it was the fact that it wasn’t just fans embracing a young player who wanted to stay a Met. Flores seemed to embrace the situation himself by cranking up his offensive game in response. He started it with a storybook walk-off homer on July 31st and hasn’t looked back. He slashed .306./337/.506 with a wRC+ of 134 in August. The power was back, as he hit 3 homers and 8 doubles in 24 games. He’s been on an even more amazing tear so far in September, slashing .300/.333/.600 with an OPS of .933 and wRC+ of 158. It’s been quite the turnaround, though he really started getting back on track in July with a triple slash of .299/.330/.379 and wRC+ of 97, albeit with little power.
It’s great to see Flores starting to flourish offensively and defensively, though perhaps surrounding him with major league talent has contributed. Whether that’s the result of a more positive atmosphere and competitive team or the result of the nebulous “lineup protection” concept is a debate for another day, but the results are there.
Regardless, there is still one very large problem with his performance at the plate, even in the midst of this resurgence: he plain refuses to walk. He’s walking at a rate of 3.5% in 2015, which is just extremely bad. Even during his hot streak he hasn’t gotten it above 5%. If it’s any consolation, that’s only fifth worst in the major leagues for qualified hitters. Incredibly, that means that there are four hitters that walk even less than Flores. Unfortunately for Mets fans, one of those hitters is Juan Lagares at 2.8%.
That might not seem like too much of a problem while he’s raking, but when the hits aren’t falling it makes him a more of a liability at the plate. Specifically, when his luck and BABIP are low, as they were from March through June, that BB% becomes much more of a glaring issue. Unsurprisingly, his BABIP has normalized in the second half. The point here is that his inability to take a free pass seems to indicate his value ebbs and flows with his luck. That’s not good. Of course, any hitter will have a hard time being productive when his BABIP drops below a certain point (and Flores had a BABIP as low as .215 in May), but when the hits aren’t falling they still need to find a way on base.
A major caveat here is that Flores has seen a lot of pitches within the strike zone. In fact, he’s 18th in the majors with a Zone% of 48.4% according to FanGraphs. Maybe he hasn’t taken many walks because pitchers are simply attacking him. Early on he was getting himself out, while lately he’s been making them pay. The test will be to see whether he can adjust when they start throwing him more junk outside.
With Murphy likely outbound and Dilson Herrera yet to show he’s ready for prime time, it may be that Flores is the Mets’ 2016 starting second baseman. If he hopes to remain effective he’ll need to really pull that walk rate up. Otherwise, he’ll live and die with whether or not the hits fall in for him. Additionally, we haven’t even touched on the major platoon splits he’s exhibited this season, which will be an interesting offseason discussion when debating between these two youngsters.
I really cant remember when there was ever as much pressure on a young player as there was on Flores going into the season. Having to re-learn to play shortstop in real time with millions of eyes on you every night and most of them saying “you can’t do it.” Every ball hit his way made you hold your breath and I’m sure he was aware. But by May the errors slowed down, then fortunately the team decided to put people in their best defensive positions. It was never that Flores needed to play short, it was that his bat needed to be in the lineup and short was the only spot available. Just like Murphy had to play 2b in order to get his bat in the lineup. So it was perplexing when 3b opened up that they kept the alignment static. The night Flores didn’t get traded was a huge release for him. Those tears were not just about leaving the only team he ever knew – they were also shed for all the effort and hard work that he’d put in in the face of such enormous pressure. Once he got through all that – he relaxed. Now when he plays either Short or Second – he looks comfortable. If he’s our starting short stop next year, I have no concerns, none, zero.
Editor’s Note – Please do not capitalize words in your post, as that is a violation of our Comment Policy.
You nailed it.
Wilmer took an enormous and often unfair (and sometimes cruel) amount of heat for a young kid in his first full season of ML baseball.
I think the walks will get better over time, though I doubt he’ll ever walk enough for some folks. Neither will Cespedes. I also think his BA will improve, because I’m impressed with the way he uses the whole field.
The curious thing to watch is how he’s slowly playing more and more SS lately — but no one is talking about it. Personally, I’m surprised by my own reaction. I didn’t like him at SS, and I think the Mets stabilized once they gave up on “the experiment” and put Tejada there. In the past, TC would play Tejada every day and grind him down to dust. This time, he started sprinkling Wilmer into SS as a backup. Then a little more, and a little more. And this time around, under these circumstances — where the entire burden isn’t on Flores, where he’s established the bat, more or less — I don’t mind. In fact, I’m glad to read the lineup and see his name at SS.
I think it’s an argument for giving Herrera a real shot at 2B for the 2016 season. We’ll want Wilmer at SS and elsewhere. Surprising.
One thing: I’ve always liked that kid and rooted for him. I like the way he goes about things . . . even if he doesn’t walk enough. I’m confident that it will get better as he continues to develop.
What the past six weeks have shown is that with a solid lineup many flaws are hidden. Flores not taking BBs is not as important with all that firepower in the lineup. Flores not making all the plays Tejada makes doesn’t really matter when the team is scoring 5.8 runs per-game. Depth covers many sins. Certainly, Wilmer will learn to walk more frequently, just as he will improve defensively. However, he will never be fast or quick. I see his future being at the hot corner, which is not likely if Wright continues to perform and can play five games per-week. Herrera, with perhaps some more Triple-A seasoning, will be ready to assume 2B no later than 2017. Anything can happen and isn’t it great to have options aplenty?
On another note… I have been following baseball closely for the past 54 years and have never seen an offense turn around in the middle of the season like this year’s Mets. It’s like going from last to first in one season. One thing Alderson has proven is that there is no substitute for the depth that’s provided by a powerful bench. Having players like Cuddyer, Johnson and Uribe coming off that bench to pinch-hit or start a couple or so games each week is unquantifiable. Having those same players—and guys like Murphy—who can play multiple positions competently, is also huge. It even sustains younger role players like Flores, Tejada and Lagares. Balance has always played a part on winning teams. And the second-half 2015 NY Mets have that balance when it comes to veterans and younger players, lefties and righties, defensive and offensive specialists. Most importantly, in every game, they have a proven bench that can perform in any situation and at any moment. That is a manager’s dream and the fan’s delight.
Exactly. It’s a formula that has worked for every consistent winner – Yankees, Cardinals, Giants and, before they blew up ther pitching ataff, te Red Sox. With depth and versatility you can adapt and withstand injuries. That this team didnt miss a eat without Duda is amazing.
Isn’t it amazing how smart a baseball manager Terry Collins became as soon as he had a “real” major league roster to manage, and not a bunch of AAA players? Exactly like “clueless” Joe Torre did when he took over the Yankees budding powerhouse.
I don’t remember anyone ever questioning a Joe Torre move. But, while Collins has handled this month with a very good team well, we have seen him over five years. Let’s not act like we were blind for five years about his abilities.
The New York papers all had headlines calling Torre “Clueless Joe” and other derogatory nicknames when he was first hired as Yankee manager. The talk shows had phone lines backed up from every day fans wanting to get their 2 cents worth aired. Very few had anything good to say about Torre at the time.
I didn’t really pay much attention to the Yankees.
While Collins has done a good job in staying out of the way, I would like to see his pitching coach make pitching changes like some teams used to do when I was younger. Seeing Clippard last night struggle and look tired; seeing Gilmartin hasn’t pitched in a week; knowing Collins doesn’t care if a guy’s arm falls off. Come on folks, I’m sick and tired of hearing how “much smarter Collins has gotten with better players”. He’s a nice guy but a managing idiot, that will never change, and I hope the Mets are good enough to overcome it.
Four years ago the Texas Rangers had a loaded team and a manager that everyone kind of chuckled at. It was cute, he made strange pitching moves, was always a step behind, but the announcers gave him love always and the fans ate that up. Then, in Game 6, he never took out Nelson Cruz for defense because with a two run lead he wanted his guy on the field to celebrate. The ball went over his head while playing “no doubles defense”. They underachieved the next year and never went back while Washington “resigned” for personal issues. Those issues were he was getting fired. His foolish moves weren funny any more and his pitching moves were always just like Collins’.
On the Mets I think Flores best position is utility infielder and should be getting more starts at shortstop than Tejada in 2016. Herrera should replace Murphy at second base if all goes as planned but Flores should also get starts at second base so that in the beginning Herrera can ease into he role and not be relied on similar to the way Conforto is not relied on this year. The Mets are also going to rest Wright more often and Flores is a good choice at third base for those instances. It seems Wilmer has job security for next year.
Flores had an uneven year in 2015 but he was under enormous pressure. He is still young so there is nothing wrong in envisioning that he will continue to hit like he has since July 31st for the rest of his career. If he continues his hitting then there will be a bright future for him in some capacity on the Mets. I too have no concerns of Flores, he has performed admirably.
Enjoyed the posts from this article and the author deserves credit for the thorough article.