Following the winter meetings, the Mets have addressed almost all of their glaring holes in the field, the bullpen, and the rotation. One remaining identified hole on the bench for a fourth outfielder is being explored now with very unexciting names like Ryan Raburn and Alejandro De Aza being mentioned in rumors. Either of those two could be serviceable outfield backups, along with Kirk Nieuwenhuis. Then the team would be set with five outfielders, six infielders, two catchers, five starting pitchers and a good 10 or 12 bullpen arms to compete for seven spots on the opening day roster. And there you have it, your 2016 New York Mets.
What’s that, you’re not excited? Not ready to box out October from business travel and vacations?
The field may be set – maybe even improved with a more experienced double play combo – but this team has a gaping hole at the number three spot in the lineup, previously occupied by David Wright. Now that age and spinal stenosis has turned the captain into more of a shipmate, the Mets need a reliable run producer and lineup changer that opposing pitchers have to work around. The hole is even bigger following the departures of Daniel Murphy and Yoenis Cespedes. Arguably, trade addition Neil Walker can replace Murphy’s production, but who’s batting third and fourth in 2016? We can all cross our fingers that Michael Conforto quickly develops into a three hole hitter or that Travis d’Arnaud can stay healthy for a full season, but realistically, we need a big bat.
Even if the Wilpons open those tight purse strings enough to sign a leadoff-hitting centerfielder like Denard Span or Dexter Fowler so we can move Curtis Granderson out of the leadoff spot into the middle of the lineup, we’re still left with a hole. Since Granderson and Lucas Duda are both lefties, you’d ideally like to have a righty separate them. And who would be the logical candidate?
An easier fit, in terms of lineup balance would be our old friend Cespedes. He’d allow us to leave Granderson in the leadoff spot and he could bat cleanup in front of Duda, affording the big lefty the opportunity to see more fastballs. Remember that hot streak Duda had after his signing? Cespedes also deserves some credit for Murphy’s playoff bonanza as teams were pitching around him. He clearly adds more to the lineup than just 30 homers. In that scenario, who bats third and benefits from hitting in front of Cespedes? Maybe give the captain the benefit of the doubt early on and, if he struggles or gets hurt, switch him out with d’Arnaud or Conforto?
Maybe they go all in for a cleanup hitter like Cespedes or Justin Upton or trade for Carlos Gonzalez. Perhaps they opt for a leadoff hitter like Span, Fowler or even quasi leadoff hitter Gerardo Parra. Or maybe they go the cheapskate route and just add a journeyman fourth outfielder. Whether they stand pat, add a big bat or a fast cat, the lineup could look very different. Here are some possibilities:
Stand pat:
Curtis Granderson
Neil Walker
David Wright
Lucas Duda
Travis d’Arnaud
Michael Conforto
Asdrubal Cabrera
Juan Lagares
Big bat:
Curtis Granderson
Neil Walker
David Wright
Yoenis Cespedes/Justin Upton
Lucas Duda
Travis d’Arnaud
Michael Conforto
Asdrubal Cabrera
Fast cat:
Denard Span/Dexter Fowler
David Wright
Curtis Granderson
Travis d’Arnaud
Lucas Duda
Neil Walker
Michael Conforto
Asdrubal Cabrera
Without a doubt, that “big bat” lineup is the winner. And if Conforto develops as we expect (hope?) he will move up in the lineup.
Let’s talk numbers.
A short, overloaded deal for Cesp makes sense, but that will almost certainly be market dependent. How many years/dollars would your initial offer be? What would be the max?
Same question re Upton.
Metropoliben – I’m not a big Upton fan. Those brothers remind me of the Drews – a lot more hype than substance, injury prone, etc. In my opinion whichever GM gives Justin Upton a 6 or 7-year deal will regret it. As for Cespedes, I know he is not without flaws, but he fills a lot of needs for this team and his presence in the lineup alone is a difference maker. If I were the Mets GM I’d try to get him on a 4, maybe 5 year deal but I would not go to 6 or more. And I would actually front load it as we have more flexibility now than we’ll have in 3 years. That might make it more appealing – say 25/25/20/20/20. Yes, that’s a decent size contract, but it’s not a behemoth. This is NY and we were just in the World Series. We should’t be confined to a Pittsburgh payroll.
But we are Matty for the foreseeable future
Matt, that is the logical route with Cespedes and that is the type of offer the Mets should make. Front loaded so that his later three years are appealing in trade.
Conforto will become the #3 hitter and Wright will remain the #2 hitter with Cespedes. B-ref and Steamer project Wright to have a poor year in which case he could eventually drop to 6th in the order.
TDA has shown power in his limited time on the field and the line up with Span rightfully acknowledges this.If Conforto and TDA develope into the stars they can be then the Mets will be solid offensively for the next few years and compliment the pitching staff. Lot’s of food for thought.
Conforto is the new #3 hitter which will become clear during spring training.
Span=Boras so forget him. I still dream of a trade with Colorado. I would send 2 top pitching prospects in the minors and ? (include Duda) to the Rockies for CarGo and Arenado. Move Wright to first base ( batting second) and have Nolan bat clean up with Grandy in the 3 hole. Cargo 5th and TDA 6th. One question. I don’t know if Walker or Cabrera would be a quality lead off hitter.
Pete, I agree with you on the leadoff options. Fowler has draft pick comp tied to him and Span has Boras. I would not trade with Colorado. All their players numbers are skewed and many of them don’t transition to less hitter friendly parks. Cargo is not a CF so you’d have to move Grandy to center. Also, we don’t have such top pitching prospects anymore that could net us a player of that caliber. They are not going to trade Arenado. The only viable option I see on the Rockies is Charlie Blackmon. I’m not sure I see Wright at first base, but depending on how he looks this season we may need to explore some other options.
Wheeler and Montero?
Conforto is the Mets #3 hitter, but my expectation is that he won’t be given the opportunity to perform in that role.
David Wright, I strongly feel, will be a major problem moving forward — and part of that problem will be exacerbated by the way TC handles him. I think he’ll bat 2nd long after it is obvious he can’t do the job.
Just this WS, we saw that TC was afraid to stand up to Cespedes and Harvey. We already know he won’t stand up to David. “Do you want to rest today? You look tired? No? Oh, okay!”
And again, I’m a fan of DW.
I’m hopeful that their roster moves are an indicator that they may embrace more platoons and situational baseball…. Duda can be what he Is—a Great Match versus Righties, while sitting versus tough lefties. Grandy, Wright…… they can all stay fresh and ready…and they can utilize matchups and MLB level bats throughout the roster.
Oh….and it “wouldn’t Hoyt” if they signed Cespee.
“If David Wright is no longer our #3 hitter, who is?”
It doesn’t matter. Every study shows all but the most absurd lineup constructions to be approximately equal.
The Mets have no need for a prototypical #3 hitter, nor any need for any sort of “replacement” for Wright. They need, as all teams do, guys who can get on base.
Good point!
Astute managers build a batting order that maximizes the talent on hand rather than trying to stuff that talent into fixed/antiquated ideas. The guys with the best obps should be in the top part of the order. There are some advantages to alternating lefty-righty hitters but that should not create weird lineup contortions. The best hitters should get the most at bats. You just need enough good hitters.