It is a positive sign of the sophistication of the modern baseball fan that players are being evaluated these days on their total contributions rather than just their triple slash lines (batting average/home runs/RBIs). Jason Heyward just received a huge contract with the Cubs because rather than being an offensive giant he has a complete skill set including Gold Glove level fielding in right field.
In article after article depicting the state of the Mets after the Winter Meetings the question of the team’s up the middle defense has been discussed. It is good that we discuss it but defense has always been hard to quantify even with the snazziest new metrics. Just as your eyes don’t tell you what mine tell me the metrics do not always agree as to who is really an outstanding fielder and who is not. The classic case in point was that of Derek Jeter who some say was a top level defender while others, this writer included, think he was sub par in that department. And while the metrics seem to be improving this era of the massive and frequent infield shifts adds to the difficulty of determining who should be getting to which groundball.
Keith Hernandez, Howie Rose, and Cal Ripken, Jr. all were avid fans of the baseball simulation game Strat-O-Matic. They played it as teens and Cal was known to play games for the Orioles, hop on a plane to the O’s next destination, and spend time on the plane playing Strat with his teammates.
Every year the game company assigns defensive grades to all the major league players. The aspect of range varies from 1, best (this is Andrelton Simmons at SS, Kevin Kiermaier in CF, and the other Gold Glove contenders) down to the rarely used 5 that goes to people like Lucas Duda and Adam Dunn when they have tried to master LF. A 2 goes to a player who is above average in range but not outstanding. The 3, think Ruben Tejada at 2B, SS, and 3B, is average to slightly below average in range. And the 4 goes to the outright poor fielder.
The game company releases the range numbers to their anxious fans in mid-December about a month before the actual full release of its next card set. So we Strat players now know the ranges given to all the position players. We don’t yet know about the throwing arms of the outfielders and catchers. Plus the pro-rated error numbers that tell us how many errors we can expect from the players if they were to play 162 games will also be info we will have next month.
And admittedly while the game company has a great reputation in quantifying defensive range every year there are a few head scratchers involving players being rated a lot better or worse than one would expect. We’ll get to a Mets related one in a moment.
On the subject of the Mets’ second base situation the team has let Daniel Murphy walk as a free agent. Murphy has always received 4’s for his work at second and the 2015 season was no exception. He also is rated 4 at first but surprisingly (and happily for us Murphy owners in leagues) got a 3 for his range at third base. That 3 is the same as David Wright gets in the next card set.
Meanwhile Murph’s successor at 2B is ex-Pirate Neil Walker. Walker had a tough year in the field in 2015 and some expected he would fall from his usual 2B-3 rating to 2B-4 but he did not. So if the 2016 Walker defends like the 2015 and 2014 one did then the Mets will have improved range at 2B. Woo hoo.
Shortstop is where the above alluded clunker seems to have occurred. Wilmer Flores, not surprisingly, will have SS-4 and 2B-4 as his 2015 range. Asdrubal Cabrera was given a surprise SS-2 rating. In the 2014 set he was a 4 at short. Usually even with improved fielding the game company conservatively moves ratings one step at a time. So if 2015 was a good fielding year for Asdrubal one would have expected a SS-3 rating. If he truly is a 2, and I really have to doubt that that’s the case, the Mets can look forward to dozens of plays in the field that he will make that would have sailed by Wilmer Flores.
If the 2016 Mets have up the middle range of 2 or 3 at shortstop and 3 at second base then the pitching staff will be pleased to have many more plays being turned behind them.
If Wright move to 1B or the outfield? Who becomes the third baseman and what happens to Granderson and Conforto?
I do miss the Jones in left, Agee in center, Art Shamsky in right.
Other than Philly what could be a worse place to play. No doubt, NY is #2 with both a hostile press and abusive fans. Murphy was greatly under appreciated and unfairly ridiculed in NY. Murphy is a good 3rd baseman and he would be the first to say that is his best position. 1st base is his next best. He’s always been a team player so when asked he moved to 2nd base and gave it his all. How many players with egos would have done that knowing that he would be berated. Murphy will do fine. The Mets organization better hope he doesn’t sign with the Nats. He could play 3rd base there.
I disagree about Murphy being underappreciated and ridiculed by the fans…..I generally thought he was well liked and most were disappointed he wouldn’t be resigned.
Agreed wit Old Timer. Think they made a terrible mistake here. Anybody who hrs vs Kershaw, Greinke, Lester and Arrieta, is a guy I want on my team What is SA thinking?
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Alderson is an American League, Earl Weaver type who overvalues homeruns and walks and undervalues speed and defense.
Totally agree. Never thought of it that way, but you’re right.
If the middle of the infield just makes the “average” plays you and I expect they should make then the wear and tear on the starters will be reduced to the point where they will pitch deeper into games. The inability to turn over a DP while not counting as an error and not showing up on the scorecard forced too often a Met starter to face another batter and add to his pitch count. We’ll see Larry
Larry, I haven’t play start-o-matic in thirty years, but I loved it when I did and actually still enjoy the ratings. Here is something you might like:
http://www.strat-o-matic.com/community/announcements/baseball-ratings-sneak-preview-recap
Can you please explain the difference in ratings from the advanced to the basic set? Never understood that. How can a guy be a 1 in advanced but a 2 in basic like Elsbury is?
Gus,
Thanks for the link. Being very active on Twitter I had seen all of those ratings when the game company released them. Then I downloaded the spreadsheet the next week with all of the ratings.
As for the difference between Basic and Advanced fielding. The Basic game does not include an error number for the player so that the single digit must describe not only the range but the player’s skill in not making errors. So let’s say you have a rangy shortstop who makes a lot of errors. It’s tough with one number to describe him. I recall Gary Templeton being a 2e38 one year. The 2 describes his great range but were he to play a full 162 games he would make 38 errors which is a very high number for a shortstop.
In the basic game they may give him a SS-3 figuring that the high error total has cost him some efficiency as a defender.
Hope that’s clear.
Thanks for the comment.
Ah, I see. Thank you Larry. My favorite time was when the cards came out. One year we went to the plant and got there early. These guys came in a limo a little later; we were astounded! The last time I played was the year the triangles and boxes came out for park effect.