On Saturday night, Jacob deGrom delivered a Quality Start (QS) for the sixth straight time. And for the sixth straight time he came away without a win. He’s 0-3 in this span, despite having a 2.25 ERA. Using research done back in 2010, which covered three-plus years and had a sample size of 317 QS, we would expect a decision 71% of the time when the starter delivered a QS and when they get a decision, we would expect a win 78 percent of the time.
So, the baseline expectation would be four decisions and we would anticipate deGrom to be 3-1 in those games. Instead, he hasn’t won a game since April.
Due to both his record (3-4) and his strikeouts being down from a year ago, the common perception is that deGrom is not the pitcher he was previously. Yet, here he is with a 2.67 ERA, compared to a 2.54 mark the year before. Last year deGrom seemed to dominate batters; this year he seems to outmaneuver them.
So, the strikeouts are down, the walks and WHIP are up and he’s giving up a higher percentage of hard-hit balls. It makes you wonder how he’s doing it. The first thought is that he’s having good fortune with his strand rate but it’s the exact same mark (78%) from a year ago. So that leaves sequencing and home run rate.
xFIP takes both of those into account and deGrom has a 3.36 mark this year in that statistic, compared to a 2.92 mark a year ago. He’s keeping batters from stringing a bunch of hits together and he’s also done a good job of keeping the ball in the park. Throughout baseball, homers are up from last year, which is surprising, as we haven’t come to the good homer months of July and August yet. But deGrom has a 0.67 HR/9 and a 9.1 HR/FB mark, both lower than what he posted last year.
And while his strikeout and walk numbers are down for the year, deGrom has been doing just fine in those two categories his last six games. In 40 IP, he has 8 BB and 47 Ks. So, while the results may not be year, there’s a lot to be encouraged about with deGrom right now.
WHAT TO DO WITH WILMER? – The signing of Jose Reyes would seem to indicate that Wilmer Flores will have a reduced role soon with the Mets. Which must be a bit maddening for his loyal supporters, as Flores has done a fine job since returning from the DL and seeing consistent playing time. When he hit the disabled list, Flores had sporadic playing time and a .535 OPS. But since his return in late May, he’s posted a .268/.338/.423 mark in 80 PA and done it with a .298 BABIP. Compare that to Asdrubal Cabrera, who has a .263/.323/.407 line this year. It’s not fair to compare 80 PA to 294 and defense is nowhere to be found here. But if Reyes replaces Flores in the lineup on a regular basis, his supporters will have a reason to be upset.
FEW REGRETS FOR HANSEL HERE LATELY – After he allowed runs in three out of four appearances in late-May, early-June, it seemed that a trip to the minors was upcoming for Hansel Robles. But he’s put in some strong performances in his last seven games, four of which he’s gone multiple innings. In this stretch, Robles has 12.1 IP, 13 H, 2 ER, 5 BB and 15 Ks and has picked up two Wins. That’s a 1.46 ERA and a 10.9 K/9. One of the keys to his strong pitching has been keeping the ball in the park. Robles allowed 5 HR in his first 24 IP but has not given up a gopher ball in his last 12.1 innings.
OFFENSIVE STRUGGLES ARE DOWNRIGHT OFFENSIVE – It took 11 innings on Saturday for the Mets to score a run yet that was enough to come away with a victory. It’s the 10th time this month that the team has scored two or fewer runs and they are 3-7 in those contests. It makes their overall June record of 11-11 look not so bad. The NL average for runs this year so far is 4.34 and the Mets rank 13th with a 3.67 runs per game average. When they score at least four runs in a game, the Mets are 29-6. When they score six or more runs in a contest, they are 18-0.
IT’S A G THING – Last year Sean Gilmartin and Erik Goeddel got extended playing time in the majors and performed admirably. Gilmartin was with the club all year and posted a 2.67 ERA and a 1.186 WHIP in 57.1 IP. Goeddel rode the shuttle but in 33.1 IP with the Mets, he recorded a 2.43 ERA and a 0.990 WHIP. Most teams would have been thrilled with that production at minimum wage and included them in their bullpen going forward. The Mets sent both guys to the minors to start 2016. Both are now back in the majors and in 10.2 combined innings, the duo has allowed 5 H, 0 ER, 2 BB and 8 Ks. The Mets are carrying an extra pitcher now and Goeddel is a candidate to return to the minors when they re-balance the roster. Hopefully both guys get a chance to contribute to the Mets going forward.
METS VERSUS NL EAST – In 2015, the Mets won 90 games in large part because they beat up on their division mates. They went 47-29 against the four other squads from the NL East. But it’s been a different story this year, even with Atlanta and Philadelphia being two of the bottom teams in the NL. After losing to the Braves on Thursday, the Mets were .500 against each of the four teams in their division. Two straight wins over Atlanta makes the Mets’ record 16-14 against the NL East. They have 11 games versus division foes before the All-Star break, including seven against the Nationals. After the break, six of their first nine games are against NL East clubs. It would be nice to see the Mets move more in the direction of their 2015 performance in these next 17 division games.
Flores was handed the utility role and failed. He was the starting SS in 2015 with regular playing time. 1000 at bats and a .670 OPS is not the answer for their third base void. Try Reyes and if he doesn’t work out by the trade deadline then start looking for a permanent solution.
Robles problem is that he can’t keep the ball in the park, and that is deadly for a relief pitcher and deflating to a team. It will take a full season of secondary tier relief pitching before I would let him hold a lead in the 7th.
The G thing leads us to Bastardo, who also can’t be trusted with a lead (and was so noted by Brian in a previous article when he was signed). I thought the G-Men deserved more respect, they had earned it.
Hopefully Reyes at the top of the order may get us a lead and get us to the Magic #4 in runs.
.500 vs the Phillies and Braves is very disappointing. Be careful Mets, the Marlins may be for real.
Excellant summary of ideas Brian.
Clearly deGrom is not going as long as he did last year. He is less efficient, and lacking a solid 2 strike put away. Hes getting a lot of foul balls. Also, his BAA with runners in scoring position has gone way up. There is no doubt our eyes are seeing a change in deGrom that is real.
Flores is major-league filler. He’s nowhere near Cabrera at any level of the game. Who cares what happens to him.
Our NL East record is atrocious that is for sure.
With deGrom, not mentioned in Brian’s piece, strangely, is that his best pitch is not what it used to be. He’s lost a few inches off the fastball. He’s lost the electricity. It’s measurable; it’s real.
And, yes, he’s done a remarkable job getting positive results even with a diminished fastball.
One point about Bastardo and the G-men:
If you don’t sign Bastardo, if you show Gilmartin and Goeddel “more respect” — and if they fail — you are left with unlikely “internal solutions” for your answers.
But if Bastardo fails, or struggles, then you’ve still got the advantageous depth provided by Goeddel and Gilmartin.
And let’s remember that Goeddel got rocked in the NLDS, to the point where to organization pulled him off the roster for the NLCS. Meanwhile, Gilmartin succeeded wonderfully as a long man, but struggled in his limited appearances as a late-inning guy. Then you have Bastardo, who has pitched successfully in the postseason, etc.
In my mind, a justifiable signing.
Wilmer’s “hot streak” is a .761 OPS…leaving his season at .667. versus .672 in over 1000 MLB ab’s.
I won’t predict his future, bit “Wilmer’s IsNess” Is Slow Baserunner, Bad Baserunner, Unreliable scatter armed fielder. He needs to hit like a brick to earn 350-60 ab’s…he doesn’t.
The Met’s need some things that Wilmer can’t give them…and as long as his contribution is Marginal, his position is available.
350-600 ab’s
The reason Wilmer is succeeding is because he’s finally walking (for now). He’s up to 8.6 BB%, which is more than double his 4% walk rate coming into this season. He had 19 walks in 510 PA last year, and he’s already up to 12 in just 135 PA this year.
If he continues at this pace, he has a shot at being useful in the majors. But if this is just a lucky run of walks for him and he goes back to his swing happy ways, you’re going to see his OPS back down in the low 600s.
Ar 24, he has a chance at becoming a better hitter, without a doubt. The throwing issues are a result of slow feet being pressed to do quick tasks…he can moderate that with better decisions….and lots of work.
He’s a semi effective “spotter”….capable of filling a 350ish ab role as a Rover in the IF. He will never run better, and he will need to be a smarter baserunner…… and hit will need to Hit Heavily.
Meanwhile…they need some production…and some small ball elements. Reyes is a Patch…and he may fit well. In Fact, he may become “the Rover”, with Wilmer in a Trade.
I saw Wilmer play a lot for St Lucie back in 2010/2011. My first impression was that they should move him to 1b and leave him there. The guy should be a useful backup/pinch hitter. Making him a utilityman is moronic, like a lot of the Mets off season moves.