Yesterday, uber commenter Jimmy P. made what seems to be a very valid point. He wrote about the Mets’ front office: “Perhaps they lack the organizational courage to go with and support a young player.” His comment seemed to be focused on Michael Conforto but it could be applied to virtually anyone in the system since the current administration took over in late 2010.
Let’s look at Conforto. At the end of April, he topped out with a 1.118 OPS and looked every bit the star we thought he was going to be. Then, over his next 157 PA, he was miserable. In May and June, Conforto posted a .148/.217/.303 line and was demoted to Triple-A. Very few people argued with the decision at the time.
Now, let’s look at James Loney. Because of one of the best power streaks in his career, Loney jumped out to an .840 OPS after his first 29 games with the club. Since then, Loney has not been good. In his last 154 PA, he’s put up a .241/.279/.303 slash line. But there’s been absolutely no talk about replacing him.
Yes, Conforto was worse than Loney. But in Loney, we’re talking about a guy who performed better than we had any right to expect and now is putting up sub-replacement numbers. How much goodwill does his roughly one-month hot streak buy him? We saw that with the youngster Conforto, a much-better one-month stretch didn’t even get him two additional months.
But Loney’s going to get much more rope than Conforto. Can anyone see the Mets cutting ties with him before the end of the year? Sure, some of this is timing. It’s really too late to send him to the minors and rosters are going to expand in a week, anyway. But pretend that the Mets signed Loney a month earlier than they did. He put up the same exact numbers, except now it’s July 25 rather than August 25. Would the Mets move on from him? You’re kidding yourself if you say yes.
The Mets should have absolutely no ties to Loney. He’s been with the club roughly three months and for two of those he’s been lousy. But he carries the veteran sheen that the club finds so appealing. An experienced gambler goes on a hot streak and leaves once the table turns cold. The Mets are staying at the table and are going to throw away all of their “Loney winnings” by continuing to play him well past his expiration point. That’s if they haven’t pissed it all away already.
In 71 games overall, Loney has a (-0.4) fWAR. For the month of June, he had a 0.3 fWAR. Loney earned more playing time with his hot first month. But playing him now is a mistake and one the Mets certainly wouldn’t have made if Loney was 22 rather than 32.
He only has five extra-base hits in his last 154 PA and none since August 1. Yet every time there’s a RHP on the mound – there’s Loney in the order, usually batting fifth. An optimist might say that at least they’re sitting him against lefties.
Wilmer Flores has a lifetime .653 OPS versus RHP and he’s pigeonholed as a lefty masher. Loney has a .582 OPS in the last two-thirds of his time with the club with 98% of his PA coming against righties and somehow he’s the preferred option. If you have no interest in seeing Flores any more than you have to – why not play Kelly Johnson at first against righties? It’s not like he’s one of the unwashed young guys; he’s been in the majors longer than Loney, has experience playing first base and since July 1 has an .841 OPS with a .295 BABIP.
And before you say anything about defense, know that Loney has seven errors in 70 games at 1B. That’s tied for the third-most errors at the position, even though he has about half the time there as someone who’s played the whole year. He also has a (-2.8) UZR, which translates to a (-7.6) UZR/150. If this holds, and there’s no reason to expect that it won’t, it will be the third straight season he’s finished as a below-average fielder.
So, we have Conforto tearing apart Triple-A pitching with little hope of returning to the majors until rosters expand, even if Jay Bruce is hitting .158 and playing every game. And we have Loney, who in the last two months is hitting even worse than he did in Tampa last year, which earned him a release, yet he starts whenever the other club throws a righty.
It’s good to be a veteran on these Mets.
The decision-making process has been frustrating. I blame Sandy more than Terry, but both deserve blame.
Loney is too content to loop a ball the other way, settling for sinks and dunks and empty BA, to the ruination of his career. Too bad. He had the tools.
Free Flores! TC is an idiot.
I get your point about Loney, Michael may be raking in the PCL but looked lost in the MLs. He had lost his plate discipline and needed to clear his head with LV. You downplay defense with Loney and mention his errors but I know what I see (I know metric devotees hate that) but he’s better than Duda or an inexperienced Conforto. That said, I don’t think they’ll bring him back.
So, if Conforto looked lost, how would you describe Loney?
Those are some rose-colored glasses you have on with defense.
Conforto looked lost. Loney is lost. Brian your article is excellent. Loney, DeAza and Granderson, what a pile of junk. We are not going to win with junk players and Bruce who forgot how to hit. Bring the youngsters up and let them play in September. Loney deserves to sit the bench for the last month of the season.
This has little to do with James Loney and a lot to do with Michael Conforto. I really, really want to believe that Conforto’s .417 avg in Las Vegas would translate to, say, a .317 avg. in the bigs. But the Mets sent him down and brought him up once, and he was a bust. I can understand why they’re reluctant to rush him up to the bigs again. The Mets need to be reasonably sure he’ll be able to perform in the bigs before re-promoting him. Conforto’s career has a huge upside – they shouldn’t be risking his long-term potential for possible short-term gain that comes with a risk.
How can you say that with a straight face?
If a young guy put up a sub .600 OPS in 154 PA, he wouldn’t be around. With the Cardinals throwing a RHP tonight, Loney will be in the starting lineup. There’s a double standard at play here.
As long as TC is manager there will always be oppression of young players like Conforto, Nimmo, Flores, TdA, Lagares,Plawecki,Cecchini and TJ Rivera.
Marc Hermann, Newsday, 8/3/14, quoting TC, “I’ve had a lot of old managers tell me very flat out: ‘Be very careful playing young players because they’re going to make just enough mistakes to get beat.’ Some of the best managers in the game have told me that.” The unsaid corollary is that young players get managers fired.
Alderson’s hands aren’t clean either when he brought up an underachieving AAA player, Reynolds, instead of Cecchini.
Loney has an expired shelf life so give Flores and Johnson the at bats.
Bruce, Granderson and DeAza are not producing so why not Conforto who is another non producer but has potential to develop.
TdA finally starts to hit but gets buried in the lineup and still gives up time to Rivera.
Sometimes TC pinch hits for a young player even if he is having a good game like after Flores hit a three run homer the other night. TC sure does not nurture the young players.
As long as TC is the manager then this caste system will exist.
Off-Topic: I am a progressive guy and everything, but shouldn’t Walker be in St. Louis tonight? The kid is born, everyone is safe, the season is on the line, get on a plane already.
Then this winter we’re supposed to turn around and hand him $45 million for three years.
Murphy wouldn’t have even had children!
He would have abstained from sex!
Neil and his wife were kinky last November. It was cold in Pittsburgh. Thanksgiving, good vibes, you know. Nine months later…
Jimmy, check Nightingale’s article today. Collins says “if I’m here next year, I’m here; if not, I’m good with that.” It’s how his players play. His vets don’t give a crap, and it shows. If I had an employee who said that to me, I would be interviewing.
http://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/mlb/columnist/bob-nightengale/2016/08/24/mets-injuries-terry-collins-future/89275142/
Players are allowed 3 days for paternity leave and Walker is within his rights to take all three. Murphy did have a paternity leave at the beginning of last season which was a bit controversial as I recall.
On the Paternity Leave— he leaves the day/night before, so he can get home. The next day starts at the Hospital— Inducing Birth is an Unpredictable process, so you need to plan on the day. You wake up the next day with your wife and child.
Can you get back to the game on that Third Day? This is tough—he’s in Pittsburgh, and the team is in St. Louis.
I get both sides…just keep in mind that he’s not a guy working in the city with his wife in Queens.
Point taken.
Conforto: You just reach a point where you need to acccept the pain of a young player. What Conforto needs to do he can do Only at the MLB level.
As a note, the Dodgers have done this with Joc Pedersen…and I believe Conforto has a Bigger Offensive game ahead than Joc
We need the right coaches in place to support Conforto. He needs to play in the right spot on the field. I don’t think the Mets have these right now. If Cespedes stays, we will find ourselves in the same predicament as this year. We would have Cespedes in left, Lagares in center, and Bruce in right. Duda at first and nobody at third. Do you consider dealing Conforto for a comparable player who plays third? Does the organization take that kind of gamble?
No, you don’t trade Conforto. When he comes around, he will be a great number three hitter. We need a real leadoff hitter. Granderson has been a train wreck. If the Mets had a good leadoff hitter and a number two who could get on base, Cespedes would have more RBIs. I do fear that the lineup next year will be more of the same.
Conforto needs to be called up before rosters expand just on the outside chance that the Mets snag that second wild card spot. We have all seen what he can do on the biggest of stages and deserves that. What we got with Loney was a player who could step in and cover us while Duda was lost, now for the season. Let’s not blame the Mets woes on Loney.
The best points of the article pertain to baseball’s inpatience with sticking with a player and letting them play through the angst. If they had just one, like sticking with Conforto and letting him work his way through that would be okay. But the Mets either go hot or cold and are rarely in the middle. You can’t have 4 players working through hitting funks. Where in the world is the talented Kevin Long – if only to get his star pupil Granderson back on track?
It’s time to take one game at a time and enjoy it for what it is – hopefully a win. To sit and calculate magic numbers and how many games we need to catch up to leap 3-4 teams to get a playoff spot is now
making the season unfun. We are not the team we were last year and even though I didn’t mind Murphy leaving and taking with him his multitude of doubles and his ability to hardly ever strike out, he also took with him his poor play in the field and on the bases. We also threw a $15M qualifying offer out there. The real hard part is watching him lead the Nats to the division crown.
Taking 2 out of 3 from the Cards was big. Its one day at a time. But bring Conforto up now to at least bolster that tiny group of hitters in our bench. He deserves it.
http://www.foxsports.com/mlb/just-a-bit-outside/baseball-joe/blog/more-players-to-choose-from-for-postseason-roster-090114
All players on the 40 man roster are elgible. Conforto does not need to be on the active 25 (although I wish he was).
In the never ending quest to find Wilmer a position, it seems Flores could be playing 1b regularly, while Mr Loney screams “left handed bat off of the bench” and “defensive replacement.”
Rob – my apologies for the late clearing of this comment. I’m traveling with limited access to WiFi.
Great post, Brian and terrific comment, Jimmy P. Because of the poor way he has handled young players and stuck with struggling veterans, and also the way he manages the bullpen that I have finally soured on Collins. He seems like a good guy and the players like him and I don’t blame him for this season. Whqt would be the harm in canning him now, giving Teuffel or Geren an audition and seeing if it sparks the team.