Welcome to our annual projection series, now getting ready to start its fifth season. We kick things off with Noah Syndergaard who, part by his dominating pitching and part by the fact that he was the only young gun to stay healthy, became the ace of the pitching staff in 2016.

My opinion is that most people would project ace-like results for Syndergaard in 2017. Perhaps the only question is if the group will consider him to be an injury risk, given our tendency to expect the worst. Since he made 30 starts last year during the regular season, a pessimist might expect him to not reach that total this year. Let’s see if we have any of those in our group.

IP ERA Ks BB HR FIP BABIP
Dalton Allison 195 2.75 230 54 13 2.54 .272
Joe Barbieri 193 2.38 226 49 15 2.63 .312
John Fox 205 2.75 225 50 21 3.07 .300
Charlie Hangley 182.7 3.17 208 72 18 3.39 .298
Brian Joura 192 2.35 213 47 13 2.60 .290
Mike Koehler 180 2.75 200 40 16 2.80 .312
Matt Netter 225 2.59 275 49 11 2.04 .220
Jim O’Malley 190 2.93 210 48 11 2.50 .317
Rob Rogan 182 2.80 210 40 13 2.48 .305
Mike Ryan 196 2.86 241 73 13 2.72 .303
Chris Walendin 200 2.42 238 44 9 2.07 .301

Welcome to the optimist club! Our lowest projections for innings is 180 and the highest projection for ERA is 3.17, while three of us forecast a 2.42 or lower mark. A nice thing is that all of us project the peripherals necessary to have such a sparkling ERA. The closest thing to pessimism are the walk totals of Mike R. and Charlie and the HR projection of John.

Here’s what the group thinks Syndergaard will do in 2017:

Mets starter Noah Syndergaard delivers a pitch during the NL Wild Card Game.

It’s eerily similar to what we expected from Matt Harvey this time a year ago. May this forecast work out a little better. Now let’s see how our forecast stacks up against the computer models. Unfortunately, Baseball-Reference is not carrying the Marcel projections this season. On top of that, while FanGraphs has released ZiPS forecasts for 25 teams, the Mets are not one of them. So, this section will look light compared to last year.

System IP ERA Ks BB HR FIP BABIP
Mets360 194.7 2.75 225 51 14 2.61 .301
Steamer 199 3.04 234 51 18 2.79 .288

Our forecast might be optimistic but we project a 2.61 FIP compared to a 2.79 mark from Steamer. We’re pretty much in agreement on both quality and quantity. Now it’s just up to Syndergaard to deliver it.

Check back Friday for our next entry in our projection series.

7 comments on “Mets360 2017 projections: Noah Syndergaard

  • TexasGusCC

    Awesome!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
    (No caps, LOL!)

  • Chris F

    Looking forward to a fantastic season for the, now, leader of the staff. He needs to have 200 reg season innings.

    Question not on the projection: Will NS lead the league in SB against?

    • Brian Joura

      I’m going to say no.

      Rivera should be catching quite a few of his starts from the get-go and I think he’ll incorporate more of a slide-step this year, too.

  • Metsense

    I believe this will be a great year for the Ace with another trip to the All Star game, pitching and winning in the World Series and culminating with a Cy Young award. I like Brian’s projection the best but with a few more strikeouts. This will be the year that all Met pitchers will finally excell together.

    • Chris F

      A great vision Metsense!

      • TexasGusCC

        +1

  • Charlie Hangley

    From our lips to God’s ears…

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