Welcome to our annual projection series, now getting ready to start its fifth season. We kick things off with Noah Syndergaard who, part by his dominating pitching and part by the fact that he was the only young gun to stay healthy, became the ace of the pitching staff in 2016.
My opinion is that most people would project ace-like results for Syndergaard in 2017. Perhaps the only question is if the group will consider him to be an injury risk, given our tendency to expect the worst. Since he made 30 starts last year during the regular season, a pessimist might expect him to not reach that total this year. Let’s see if we have any of those in our group.
Welcome to the optimist club! Our lowest projections for innings is 180 and the highest projection for ERA is 3.17, while three of us forecast a 2.42 or lower mark. A nice thing is that all of us project the peripherals necessary to have such a sparkling ERA. The closest thing to pessimism are the walk totals of Mike R. and Charlie and the HR projection of John.
Here’s what the group thinks Syndergaard will do in 2017:
It’s eerily similar to what we expected from Matt Harvey this time a year ago. May this forecast work out a little better. Now let’s see how our forecast stacks up against the computer models. Unfortunately, Baseball-Reference is not carrying the Marcel projections this season. On top of that, while FanGraphs has released ZiPS forecasts for 25 teams, the Mets are not one of them. So, this section will look light compared to last year.
Our forecast might be optimistic but we project a 2.61 FIP compared to a 2.79 mark from Steamer. We’re pretty much in agreement on both quality and quantity. Now it’s just up to Syndergaard to deliver it.
Check back Friday for our next entry in our projection series.