Gut Reaction: Mets 7, Phillies 6- 8/11/2017

The kids are alright. Amed Rosario hit the go ahead home run in the ninth inning and Dominic Smith made his Major League debut tonight at Citizens Bank Park. Rosario’s home run was one of three hits.Smith didn’t disappoint with a base hit on a two-strike curve ball and some smooth play in the field. Meanwhile, the Mets continued their run of dominance over the Phillies with a 7-6 win.

Seth Lugo started the game and had a rough first inning but then settled down for four plus solid innings to keep the Mets in the game. Lugo surrendered five earned runs on eight hits and four walks, to go with eight strikeouts.

The Mets offense again was supplied by the long ball with Michael Conforto getting us on the board in the second with his 25th home run and Yoenis Cespedes smashing a three-run home run that gave us the lead in the third inning. Neil Walker continued his resurgence with two hits and an RBI. The score stood at Mets 6, Phillies 5 entering the bottom of the eighth, but the usually reliable Jerry Blevins coughed up a game-tying solo home run to Cesar Hernandez. The Mets grabbed the lead back in the ninth on Rosario home run and new closer A.J. Ramos slammed the door shut with a 1-2-3 ninth for the win.

What a nice little glimpse of our future. Tomorrow it continues in Philadelphia with Steven Matz opposing Aaron Nola.

 

12 comments for “Gut Reaction: Mets 7, Phillies 6- 8/11/2017

  1. August 11, 2017 at 11:21 pm

    Robles vultures another win. He’s now 7-3 on the year. Since his return he has a 2.03 ERA and a 1.050 WHIP with 19 Ks in 13.1 IP.

    • Jimmy P
      August 12, 2017 at 9:13 am

      Brian, along those lines, yesterday you mentioned Goeddel’s recent hot streak as well. I don’t know if you are trying to make a larger point or not. I know you were a huge supporter of the bullpen going into the season.

      So what went wrong? Was it simply a matter of pretty good pitchers not pitching well? Another season where “bad luck” is the explanation?

      What are the lessons learned here?

      I think we all have our pet theories on building bullpens. I’ve always believed that most relievers come and go, you send them down, you bring them up, you trade for someone else, you release another. Outside of a 2-3 stable guys, It’s a fluid mix.

      A quality pen requires late-inning excellence from several top-end arms . . . and a ton of depth. You must be able to discard and pick up on the fly, all season long. The Mets had no one in AAA, one of the worst overall staffs ever assembled at that level for the Mets, along with a GM who sat on his hands and seemed to give up on the season at a very early point. He wasn’t active.

      Only now does he dump Salas, for example. Smoker, Montero still here. Rosario never called up, etc.

      Goeddel has been good for the Mets in his last 12 innings this season. But as we all know, bullpen stats are among the least reliable in baseball — the circumstances are so different, the hitters they face vary wildly, the score of the game, the usage pattern (are they rested, overworked?) and of course the too-small sample size. You can’t really believe the numbers.

      Back to Goeddel: He’s been good for Mets. But he was horrendous in 29 innings at Vegas, a WHIP over 1.50 and an ERA above 6.50. He’s was bad across the board in 2016. He’s a nice guy who runs hot and cold. Just about any AAAA pitcher will have streaks of effectiveness. Which is the real Goeddel? Has he turned a corner? I wouldn’t bank on it, but I guess he’s one of those depth pieces an organization needs.

      Clearly Sandy recognizes this by trading for live arms. He’s woken up to realize he doesn’t have any, hasn’t drafted many. I think he needs to aim higher, too, but at least he’s looking for “depth” pieces.

      Goeddel is a 24th-round pick by Omar, by the way. Robles is an old Omar guy as well.

      I believe the Mets also need to add a couple of “proven” guys, to the extent (and with the awareness) that fluctuations are the norm. There are still relievers whose arms are clearly good, who can bear the workload, who have been reasonably effective across several seasons. The Addison Reed type. They get paid well and come with risk. But if you want to win, you need some dominant arms at the end of the game.

      In addition, I’d definitely look at Wheeler, who is not perfect, but could thrive in a one-inning role. Will he walk guys? Sure, sometimes. I’d give Gsellman an audition; his FB might jump from 94 to 96. Or maybe Lugo is the guy you re-convert to the pen. I thought Robles could be solid for the Mets this year, make that leap, and now in my mind he’s just another depth guy — but I do like the arm.

      • August 12, 2017 at 10:07 am

        I have two reasons for the posts.

        1. Trying to add something not found in the actual GR
        2. Saying something positive when too many people want to contribute nothing but negative

        As for your question, I think it was a perfect storm, a lot of things breaking bad all at the same time.

        A. The starters’ inability to go acceptably deep into games
        B. The manager trying to play matchups over 4 or more innings rather than 2 innings
        C. The organizational belief that no matter how much a reliever has been used, that he’s automatically refreshed after one day off.
        D. The GM carrying guys on the roster who didn’t belong
        E. The Familia suspension then injury
        F. The schedule in April, which did not have a bunch of days off in the early going. The Mets played 18 games in 19 days from April 5 to April 23

        Reed was good, Blevins was good and thru May 10 Robles was good. It’s easy to forget now because he stunk up the joint ever since but Salas was good early, too. But he was used 9X in the first 14 games and it’s not like there were a bunch of days off like there usually are.

        You said everyone has their pet theories on the bullpen. Mine is that you need to have guys give multiple innings out of the pen. This idea that it’s all hands on deck, each and every game, and hope it doesn’t go extra innings, is insanity. The idea that it’s okay to have multiple guys who’ve pitched three of the last four days – and on top of that considering them ready to go today – has got to change.

        I know you have hopes for Wheeler out of the pen and I can see that working, too, even if I’m not as sold on it as you. But from Wheeler, Lugo and Gsellman – it would be nice to have at least one be utilized 2-3 innings at a time, 2X a week. And I’d be in favor of having all three in the pen being utilized in that way, if we could spare them from the rotation.

        Everyone wants to find this guy to play catcher and that guy to play 2B and another to play 3B and another to play CF. But to me the defining moment for the offseason will be the determination on who they can depend on to start. I know Chris is talking going after Darvish and Metsense wants to get a #3 guy. I don’t have any opinion on a specific person. But the question is: How many, if any, SP do we need to add? That question was whiffed on this past offseason and they can’t be wrong to that extent again this offseason.

        • MattyMets
          August 12, 2017 at 10:32 am

          As I pointed out in my Friday post, the Familia injury wouldn’t have been so devastating if Robles and Salas performed up to expectations.

          • Jimmy P
            August 12, 2017 at 10:59 am

            Yes, but the “expectations” on Salas seemed to be based on two months with the Mets rather than what he’d been doing for the past few years. The Angels dumped him because he was so bad, and not so long ago.

            If “we” expected him to be solid, that was optimistic. Reasonable to hope, but not a fair expectation.

            I thought Robles had a chance to be very good. Maybe it can still happen. Love his durability, he’s got a rubber arm. I still can’t help but suspect that he’s brain damaged.

            If you are willing to divide the pen into two parts: “Core Guys” and “Depth Guys,” the mistake was to think of Salas as a Core Guy who could be counted on to pitch late in games effectively all season long. I saw him more as a “Depth Guy” who you are willing to shift in and out according to performance. Mets stayed with him far, far, far too long.

            He got ridden hard early and never got his second wind.

            • August 12, 2017 at 11:43 am

              I disagree that it was not reasonable to expect solid performance from Salas, given what he had done recently.

              In the 2014-2016 period, Salas had a 3.86 ERA and a 1.117 WHIP over 196 IP, with FIPs and xFIPS better than his ERA in two of the three seasons, showing both quality and durability that would be required to pitch as a 7-8 inning guy while Familia was out and the 6-7 inning guy once he returned.

              In just his time with the Angels, he had a 4.03 ERA, a 3.55 FIP and a 1.164 WHIP. Instead, we got a 6.00 ERA and a 1.778 WHIP — 7.23 ERA and 1.955 WHIP since mid-April — totally out of line with what he had done recently.

              • TexasGusCC
                August 12, 2017 at 5:23 pm

                I keep reminding people, Salas missed all of spring training with visa issues, then hurt his arm because of not having his arm in shape and Collins not giving a crap and working him like a dog early on anyway. It may well be Salas never recovered from that injury because these numbers were very un-Salas like.

        • Jimmy P
          August 12, 2017 at 10:55 am

          Those are good thoughts.

          The two-inning guy is valuable, and I do wish we saw more of it, but of course it seems so 40 years ago, pre-La Russa. Nobody manages that way anymore, though that fact suggests there’s an opportunity. Zig when everyone else zags: the definition of Moneyball.

          Robles has that ability, that kind of arm, and TC stretched him out at times.

          On Wheeler in the pen, I don’t know if it works or not. The arm history suggests he might not have the bounceback-ability that’s necessary. But I’d like to try it, to see how he manages it. I do very much feel they need that kind of arm in the back of the pen — and they don’t come cheap on the open market, and without guarantees.

      • MattyMets
        August 12, 2017 at 10:42 am

        I’d love to see the Mets add a high quality lefty like Brad Hand, Tony Watson, Brad Brach.

  2. Metsense
    August 11, 2017 at 11:53 pm

    How cool is it that Rosario had three hits and the game winning home run. Nice to see Smith break the ice in his first game. Nimmo has come prepared with a solid approach pinch hitting which is producing results. It is about time to give him some starting at bats. TC has always been maddening to me when he bullpen matchy-matchy but now he also plays musical chairs with the infield. At least he gets everyone in while attempting to keep the free agent veterans content. After all, these vets are playing for 2018 free agent dollars and stats are important to them. TC is managing in a possibly volatile spot and it is admirable that he is able to keep the pins juggled in the air without dropping any so far. It is a tough act to keep up, balancing infused youth with veterans. Hopefully Sandy can move some of these vets in waiver trades.

    • TexasGusCC
      August 12, 2017 at 12:21 am

      I only saw a few at bats and heard a few on radio. But, one of the plays that I saw was Rosario going into the hole and getting in front of the ball and making it look easy. The plays in the hole and up the middle used to be base hits, but now they are being turned into outs. The best thing that could have happened to our pitchers.

      Listening to Josh Lewin, you get the impression that Cabrera and Walker are as good as gone.

  3. Jimmy P
    August 12, 2017 at 9:21 am

    The double-switch of Smith was just a horrendous, tone-deaf move by TC in the kid’s major league debut.

    It’s nice that he’s trying to win and everything, but try to win with that guy!

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