With his RBI double in the third inning Saturday, Asdrubal Cabrera extended his hitting streak to 10 games. His hot hitting extends back to August and while not as lengthy, or as eye-popping as his down the stretch numbers in 2016 or 2015, they do prop up his season-long stats and help make the case for picking up his option in 2018.
After taking the collar on August 23, Cabrera sat with a .705 OPS for the year. Since then, he has a .408/.470/.690 line in 84 PA, raising his season-long OPS 75 points – all the way to a .780 mark. He’s done this thanks to a crazy .473 BABIP. But it’s not only about the hits finding holes, as he has 14 XBH in this span.
You probably recall his exploits down the stretch in 2016, when Cabrera had a 1.083 OPS over his final 153 PA, raising his season-long OPS from .712 to .810 in the process. While this year his extra-base hits have been mostly doubles – accounting for 11 of his 14 so far – in 2015 they were more evenly distributed, with 11 2B and 10 HR. And of course his monster hitting in 2016 came as the Mets were chasing a playoff spot.
What you may have forgotten was that Cabrera had a strong close to 2015, too. In the year before he joined the Mets, Cabrera carried a .627 OPS into the All-Star break. But after he returned from a strained right hamstring, Cabrera went on an extended hot streak. From July 28 to the end of the year, a span of 226 PA, Cabrera notched a .328/.372/.544 line. The big finish to his season allowed him to end the year with a .744 OPS.
This makes the third straight season that Cabrera is shining in September. If we’re not supposed to pay attention to numbers put up in the final month of the season, how should the Mets view Cabrera? Should our evaluation of him be as a guy who put up a .769 OPS in 2016 and a .727 mark this year – his numbers thru games of August 31? If so, is that worth starting at either 3B or 2B in 2018? Is it worth paying $8.5 million next year?
A related question would be, would you prefer a guy’s value to be packed mostly in a six-week span? No one thinks a player performs within a few points of his OPS all season long. But we do expect there to be hot and cold streaks sprinkled throughout the year. But if Cabrera is going to put up value equivalent to a backup for 4.5 months of the season and then go on a tear at the end of the year, that’s another matter entirely.
How do you know if such a player is done? What if Cabrera sits with a .690 OPS in the middle of August next year? If they’re contending can they afford to keep writing his name in the lineup, hoping that he’ll start hitting again? It’s not like with Curtis Granderson, who kept his poor hitting limited to three or four-week stints. And if they’re not contending, do you really want to keep playing a guy on the final six weeks of his contract?
It worked out well for the Mets in 2016 that Cabrera packed so much of his value into the end of the season. Is that the exception or is that the norm? I don’t pretend to know.
What we do know is that the Mets need to field a better defensive infield in 2018 than they did this season. They’re going to go a long way in that regard by replacing Cabrera with Amed Rosario at shortstop. But how is Cabrera defensively at 2B and 3B? We don’t have a very big sample size and to muddy the waters further, UZR and DRS show conflicting numbers at both positions.
Cabrera has logged 274.1 innings at second base this year. UZR likes what it’s seen, as he has a 1.0 UZR and a 3.4 UZR/150. But DRS thinks Cabrera has been just about as bad at second as he was at shortstop this year. He’s got a (-6) DRS in those 274.1 innings, compared to a (-9) in 386.2 innings at short. And recall, 2B is the position that Cabrera has played before in the majors. He now has over 2,000 innings at second in his MLB career.
At third base we flip the script. In 262 innings, Cabrera has a (-2) UZR, which extrapolates to a (-11.7) UZR/150. Yet DRS in that same sample has him as a +1 fielder. Prior to 2017, Cabrera had just 1.1 innings played at the hot corner.
The Mets don’t have a ton of internal options for third base in 2018, so if they pick up Cabrera’s option that would seem to be his landing spot. You would think his lack of pure athleticism would be less of a concern at an infield corner compared to up the middle. But will the bat play?
We saw in 2015 that Cabrera turned it on once he was healthy. We could be seeing some of that this season, too. It’s possible that this latest hot streak is merely a product of Cabrera being healthier than he has previously. It’s hard to know and keep track of with all of the injuries he’s suffered since joining the club. And even if it’s true, is that a reason to pick up his option? Do we think he’ll be healthier next season, when he’s a year older?
For me, there are just too many unknowns with Cabrera to feel comfortable about picking up his option. While his buyout is at $2 million, that still leaves $6.5 million that could be invested in a replacement. Is that enough to make them players for Mike Moustakas? Perhaps. But if increasing athleticism is a goal, maybe Moustakas shouldn’t be the first choice, anyway.
I’m not sold on Mous who hits (almost exactly) like Wilmer Flores and whose defense is maybe equivalent to a 3B Cabrera. Would he command Longoria money?
While I’m at it would you swap Alonso (+?) for Longoria and his 2018-22 contract?
Alonso? Do you mean Dominic Smith?
it would have been a much easier situation if Cabrera was traded and/or tanked during the 2nd half. even more confusing is that he seems not to be 100% health wise.
Also, is Phil Evens a sleeper or am I dreaming?
As far a s FA go, Eduardo Nunez seems more of a fit: BA/OBP on a team that needs to get guys on base.
Offensively, Nunez is a fit. Defensively, I’ve heard one friend tell me he’s “brutally bad” with the glove, and I’ve read that he’s okay. I don’t have a personal take.
I’ve also read that the Red Sox want to retain him. I don’t believe Sandy wants any part of that fight.
I would be shocked if the Mets made anything other than a half-hearted move for Moustakas. He’s going to get paid, and probably overpaid.
Cabrera seems to be a “second division starter”, and while that isn’t meant to be an insult, it seems hard to win with him at third. However, it’s hard to say Nunez would be a big improvement or that the Mets can’t win because of Cabrera being the third baseman. In fact, the Astros are won with Valbuena, and that’s comical.
At this point, is Todd Frazier better than Cabrera?
Just in case it isn’t crystal clear, my expectation is that people will assume one identity and stick with it.
So, Royce, who has already appeared on the site as Nick Carter and Alex Stein and Max Lewis, your latest alias has been sent to the trash.
It strikes me that the Cabrera decision, as well as a decision on whether to offer Jose Reyes a contract, is impacted by the continued uncertainty regarding David Wright.
I do agree with Gus in that Cabrera is a 2nd tier 3B, but I can live with re-upping him if the strategy is to put the money into importing some quality pitching, specifically a big back-end arm and a #3-type starter that is a good bet to log 200 innings. In that case, they could afford to add one reasonably-priced veteran bat, like a Walker or a Bruce. With Rosario at SS and Smith at 1b, the infield D should be greatly improved. The pitching needs to come first, defense second, and offense afterwards.
Scooter Gennett…anyone?
Isn’t Moustakous a Good fielder?
Droobs is generally good with proper health and rest. He needs to start no more than 125-135 games…at most. His streakiness may reduce somewhat…his big downs.
The average NL third baseman has an 258/336/431/768 and second baseman 266/334/405/739. Cabrera, who can adequately start at both positions, is above average at 279/348/432/780. He can also backup at shortstop. Cabrera is a better third baseman than Flores. The only free agents with a better OPS and considered an upgrade to Cabrera are Moustakas (3B), Frazier (3B) and Walker (2B). In the off season timeline, options occur before free agency. The Mets should pick up his option. If they are able to sign one of the above free agents then they can move Cabrera to the vacant position.
I have long believed that the plan is to bring back Cabrera and Reyes and, actually, the entire “revised” 2017 infield with Rosario & Smith.
So that’s Cabrera, Rosario, Reyes, Flores, Smith.
The 6th spot is open as far as I can tell, maybe an INF/OF guy. They have in-house options for that last spot.
Hard to imagine this team giving Flores the full-time job at 2B w/ Reyes around.
Think they are holding pat at C, too, unless Sandy thinks he can deal d’Arnaud for a pitcher of value.
There seems to be an opening in the OF, too. It’s getting harder and harder to imagine that Jay Bruce would ever voluntarily sign up for this team. Though I guess a very strong offer — clearly the best offer by a margin — would turn his head. Seems increasingly unlikely.
The good news is that Rosario makes the Mets a better team on both sides of the ball.
Given a “half in” ownership that has never been fully committed to winning, focus has to be on pitching. They won’t address all the glaring needs.
Did you guys see that Bleacher Reports just listed Mets farm system as 27th out of 30th? This is after trading for a half-dozen-plus RH “prospects.”
James, personally I wasn’t surprised but I would actually be surprised if the majority of us were expecting too much better.