Next up in our preseason projection review series is Robert Gsellman. I don’t think many folks expected such a terrible season for the young righty who dazzled in his 2016 audition. In fact, our reader poll back in February overwhelmingly chose him as the preferred fifth starter heading into the season. To say things didn’t go as planned is an understatement, but below was our official projection:

IP – 137
ERA – 3.50
K – 120
BB – 41
HR – 11
FIP – 3.39
LOB% – 74.5

Here’s how Gsellman actually did, with the best and worst individual projections among our group:

IP – 119.2
Best – Netter (120)
Worst – Joura (178)

ERA – 5.19
Best – Barbieri (4.11)
Worst – Hangley (2.96)

Ks – 82
Best – Koehler (78)
Worst – Fox (160)

BB – 42
Best – Koehler (39), O’Malley (45)
Worst – Hangley (22)

HR – 17
Best – Walendin (16)
Worst – O’Malley (5)

FIP – 4.89
Best – Koehler (4.24)
Worst – O’Malley (2.79)

LOB% – 62.7
Best – Barbieri (72.4)
Worst – Ryan (80.5)

Hey, we almost pegged the walks! Unfortunately for the Mets and Gsellman (and fans), the most pessimistic of our individual projections were generally the most accurate. He had a tough time straight out the gate this season, with only a few performances of note. It should be pointed out that, beyond his poor performance, many of our projections took a hit simply because of the time he spent not pitching. Specifically, his innings were reduced due to injury, getting yanked from the rotation, and ultimately getting optioned to AAA.

Top the poor results off with a brief but public spat with the General Manager, and you have yourself a year to forget. It’s tough to say what Gsellman’s role will be on the 2018 team, but with the dumpster fire that was the 2017 pitching staff he has as good a shot as any to end up either in the rotation or the bullpen.

4 comments on “Mets360 2017 projection review: Robert Gsellman

  • Rabbit

    DeGrom,Thor and cross your fingers! My guess Lugo,Harvey, Matz. Wheeler to the BP, he’s a five inning starter and can be a two inning guy in the BP.

    • Mike Koehler

      I’m not opposed to the idea of moving a starter to the bullpen, especially if he pitches frequently and at least a whole inning, maybe more.

  • Metsense

    In a small sample of 41 innings in 2016 he exploded on the scene. If he could have maintained that 41 innings over a season , he would have rank among NL starters as around 6th in ERA, 4th in FIP and 30th in WHIP in 2016. He would have ranked him as one of the 15 best starters in the NL. Instead his 2017 numbers, based on the 76 NL starters who threw 80 innings, ranks him 70th in ERA, 67th in FIP and 66th in WHIP. Sadly both Harvey and Wheeler did worse than him! There is talent there but not consistency. Hopefully a new pitching coach will cultivate it and get him back on track. At least he finished the year healthy. He will need a great spring to win a rotation spot but he looks more like a 2018 2 or 3 inning middle reliever with that sinking pitch that he throws. He was a huge 2017 disappointment.

    • Jimmy P

      The concern here — and possibly the mistake that many of us made — was to consider the 41 IP for the Mets in 2016 as “real” compared to his somewhat ordinary minor league career.

      He may have reverted to the norm moreso than, say, failing to meet his standards.

      We might have made too much out of a flukey 41 innings. That said, I thought he looked very good; it appeared real to me, too.

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