Potential landing spots for 17 free agents in the 2017-18 class

Below we have destinations and contract terms for 17 free agents. None of us claim to be experts on the subject – some claim a lack of expertise here more vociferously than others – so the last thing you should do is use this as a betting guide. Instead this is an opportunity for us to discuss guys who will be in the news and who may or may not be linked to the Mets. It’s supposed to be a fun exercise and not dissected or graded, so please keep that in mind. Our participants are: Dalton Allison, Joe Barbieri, Scott Ferguson, John Fox, David Groveman, Brian Joura, Mike Koehler and Matt Netter.

Yu Darvish Team Years/Salary
Allison Cubs 4/$60
Barbieri Cubs 5/$125
Ferguson Phillies 6/$162
Fox Marlins 4/$80
Groveman Cubs 7/$175
Joura Phillies 5/$140
Koehler Cardinals 5/$120
Netter Braves 5/$125

J.D. Martinez Team Years/Salary
Allison Brewers 3/$50
Barbieri Rangers 4/$85
Ferguson Red Sox 5/$115
Fox D’Backs 4/$100
Groveman Red Sox 6/$130
Joura D’Backs 6/$130
Koehler Red Sox 6/$150
Netter Giants 6/$144


Eric Hosmer Team Years/Salary
Allison Red Sox 5/$88
Barbieri Red Sox 6/$115
Ferguson Royals 5/$100
Fox Royals 5/$110
Groveman Red Sox 6/$120
Joura Royals 5/$110
Koehler Royals 5/$110
Netter Red Sox 6/$132


Jake Arrieta Team Years/Salary
Allison Yankees 2/$49
Barbieri Cardinals 4/$90
Ferguson Cubs 4/$100
Fox Yankees 4/$100
Groveman Yankees 4/$105
Joura Dodgers 5/$130
Koehler Cubs 4/$80
Netter Yankees 5/$125


Mike Moustakas Team Years/Salary
Allison Mets 1/$18
Barbieri Mets 3/$55
Ferguson Angels 5/$100
Fox Giants 6/$105
Groveman Mets 4/$80
Joura Yankees 5/$95
Koehler Angels 5/$90
Netter Braves 5/$85


Lorenzo Cain Team Years/Salary
Allison Red Sox 2/$40
Barbieri Tigers 4/$65
Ferguson Rangers 4/$75
Fox Mariners 3/$60
Groveman Blue Jays 4/$60
Joura Mariners 3/$51
Koehler Giants 5/$85
Netter Cubs 4/$68


Wade Davis Team Years/Salary
Allison Braves 3/$38
Barbieri Braves 3/$44
Ferguson Astros 4/$60
Fox Cubs 3/$50
Groveman Cubs 4/$65
Joura Cubs 4/$75
Koehler Cubs 4/$64
Netter Cubs 4/$60


Lance Lynn Team Years/Salary
Allison Mets 3/$32
Barbieri Brewers 4/$53
Ferguson Brewers 4/$56
Fox Cubs 4/$48
Groveman Mets 4/$60
Joura Brewers 4/$60
Koehler Brewers 3/$45
Netter Twins 4/$56


Greg Holland Team Years/Salary
Allison D’Backs 4/$45
Barbieri Twins 3/$38
Ferguson Cardinals 4/$50
Fox Rays 3/$40
Groveman Cardinals 4/$40
Joura Nationals 4/$52
Koehler Cardinals 4/$2
Netter Cardinals 4/$50


Alex Cobb Team Years/Salary
Allison Rays 1/$17.4
Barbieri Rockies 4/$48
Ferguson Rangers 4/$56
Fox Cards 4/$44
Groveman Twins 4/$50
Joura Cardinals 5/$75
Koehler Rangers 4/$44
Netter Cubs 4/$52


Carlos Santana Team Years/Salary
Allison Indians 3/$49
Barbieri Angels 4/$64
Ferguson Indians 4/$60
Fox Red Sox 3/$50
Groveman Indians 3/$45
Joura Indians 4/$42
Koehler Mariners 3/$48
Netter Indians 3/$39


Zack Cozart Team Years/Salary
Allison Brewers 3/$33
Barbieri Royals 4/$56
Ferguson Cardinals 4/$45
Fox Reds 3/$75
Groveman Angels 3/$38
Joura Cardinals 4/$50
Koehler Reds 4/$58
Netter Brewers 4/$52


Jay Bruce Team Years/Salary
Allison D’Backs 4/$58
Barbieri Blue Jays 3/$43
Ferguson Blue Jays 4/$60
Fox Indians 4/$48
Groveman Blue Jays 4/$48
Joura Rockies 3/$39
Koehler Blue Jays 4/$48
Netter Mets 3/$48


Addison Reed Team Years/Salary
Allison Mets 2/$14
Barbieri Astros 3/$32
Ferguson Twins 4/$48
Fox Astros 3/$21
Groveman Astros 3/$30
Joura Rockies 3/$39
Koehler Mets 4/$40
Netter Astros 4/$36


Todd Frazier Team Years/Salary
Allison Yankees 3/$50
Barbieri Giants 2/$24
Ferguson Mets 3/$37.5
Fox Mets 3/$36
Groveman Brewers 3/$32
Joura Mets 3/$40
Koehler Mets 3/$30
Netter Mets 3/$33


Jonathan Lucroy Team Years/Salary
Allison Rockies 4/$49
Barbieri White Sox 2/$22
Ferguson A’s 2/$20
Fox Rockies 3/$25
Groveman Rockies 3/$36
Joura D’Backs 2/$20
Koehler Rockies 2/$26
Netter Rockies 3/$36


Neil Walker Team Years/Salary
Allison Pirates 3/$30
Barbieri Angels 2/$18
Ferguson Angels 2/$25
Fox Pirates 3/$27
Groveman Braves 2/$18
Joura Brewers 2/$24
Koehler Blue Jays 2/$24
Netter Rays 2/$20

31 comments for “Potential landing spots for 17 free agents in the 2017-18 class

  1. David Groveman
    November 8, 2017 at 9:53 am

    David Groveman is way off base and I disagree with all of his predictions on philosophical grounds.

    • Chris F
      November 8, 2017 at 12:09 pm

      I agree, but Im sure David will have plenty to say in reply. 😉

      • David Groveman
        November 10, 2017 at 9:24 am

        Mostly,

        I want the Mets to get Lynn and Moustakas.

  2. Chris F
    November 8, 2017 at 12:15 pm

    Well, the 2018 “Mets on the Cheap” sure comes out of this survey. I think this is headed for 80ish wins with the things we have seen to the present. Will be interesting to see if ever the cagey Windtalker Alderson has more moo-la than he leads on and can do the things necessary to win. So far 2018 doesnt look any brighter than the finish of 2017. Can Callaway still pitch? Does he count against the 25 man roster? Is Jason Bay’s contract paid off? What about Chris Young? No, not that Chris Young, the other Chris Young! Granny as the glue guy for 1M$? Maybe Bobby Bo as the glue guy?

    …just thinking out loud here…

  3. November 8, 2017 at 1:55 pm

    Assuming the Mets had $30 million to spend this offseason, would you sink a multi-year contract with an AAV of $25 into anyone?

    • MattyMets
      November 8, 2017 at 4:20 pm

      Brian, no I wouldn’t. They have 4 holes that need plugging. Perhaps one can be handled via trade, but we don’t have a ton of assets. In fact, I don’t think the Mets will go anywhere near that number. I predict they’ll sign one bat in the $12 to $16 range, like Bruce, Frazier, or Cain, a mid rotation veteran in the $8 – $12mm range , a reliever in the $5 to $8 range and then trade for one more bat. That’s about $30mm in FAs right there.

  4. Name
    November 8, 2017 at 3:52 pm

    Just for fun i summed up all the dollars per person for the total spend and years on these 17 FA

    Allison – 50/$720.4 mil
    Barbieri- 60/$977 mil
    Ferguson – 68/$1169.5 mil
    Fox – 62/$1019 mil
    Groveman – 68/$1132 mil
    Joura – 67/$1172 mil
    Koehler – 67/$1064 mil
    Netter – 69/$1161 mil

    Allison is the clear lowest one of the bunch, thinking that teams are going to be thrifty on years and total dollars to save money for next year’s mega FA class.
    Joura is the highest spender by a smidge over Ferguson in both total dollars and AAV.

    • MattyMets
      November 8, 2017 at 4:31 pm

      I don’t think next year’s FA class will have as big an impact on this year’s market as a lot of others believe. There are a lot of big market teams that came up just short or looking to bounce back and have clear holes to fill. Competition will drive prices/years up.

      Might a team pass on Frazier and Moustakas and make do with a veteran in his final year to wait and see about Donaldson and Machado? Hmm.

  5. JIMO
    November 8, 2017 at 4:40 pm

    I give these guys credit for being able to put together a forecast of any kind. So kudos to Groveman and all the rest of the prognosticators.

  6. Metsense
    November 8, 2017 at 10:22 pm

    In regard to the article, some members of the staff think the Mets will land some free agents. Moustakas at 4/80 may not be enough but Groveman is right in not paying any higher. Lynn at 4/60 is a realistic price by Dave and at that price should be a priority. Netter pegged Bruce at 3/48 which may be an over pay but he does fill the hole of power bat corner OF and first base insurance. Koehler offering Reed 4/40 may be slight overpay but we all know Addison – his aim is true. Four staffers chose Frazier with Netter being the most realistic at 3/33 and Frazier can also be insurance at first base. So the staff has chosen three power hitters,(assuming one is signed), one starter and one reliever at a price cost of $36-46 MM annual salary. The staff selections did a fine job of addressing the needs.
    No body chose Alex Cobb to the Mets but Ferguson’s offer of 4/56 should be matched as another alternative to Lynn.

  7. TexasGusCC
    November 9, 2017 at 12:37 am

    J. D. Martinez wants $200MM, LOL! Who wouldn’t?

  8. Name
    November 9, 2017 at 12:26 pm

    Not on the list, but it’s clearly between the Yankees and Rangers for Otani. The Mets have already spent all their intl money so they have no shot.

    http://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/21340574/texas-rangers-pay-most-pitcher-outfielder-shohei-otani

    Both are well-versed with Japanese players, with the Rangers having signed Darvish previously and the Yankees with Matsui and Tanaka.

    I think he’ll end up choosing the Rangers due to no state income taxes in Texas.

  9. November 9, 2017 at 5:29 pm

    If we trade for Gordon, sign Frasier and Bruce. Decent lineup and good defense up the middle. Smith, Gordon, Rosario, Frasier, Cespedes, Lagares/Nimmo ( until Conforto comes back), Bruce, TDA.

    • NormE
      November 9, 2017 at 5:39 pm

      If you sign Gordon and Frazier, what do you do with Cabrera? Are you going to pay him 8.5 million to sit on the bench and be an unhappy camper?
      Do you really believe that Bruce is going to give the Mets a discount to return to NY? Surely, the Mets will be outbid for his services.
      But then again, this is the time of year to dream.

      • November 10, 2017 at 9:59 am

        I know Bruce is not going to sign with us. I think he either stays with Cleveland with us being maybe 3rd or 4th destination. I know most posts are dreaming some. We have no idea if one or anything is going to be done by Mets. All opinions and pipe dreams.

  10. December 15, 2017 at 2:55 pm

    Zack Cozart signed a 3/$38 deal with the Angels while Carlos Santana inked a 3/$60 contract with the Phillies.

    Groveman with the exact terms and club with Cozart! And he claims not to know this stuff…

    None of us got the team right with Santana and we underestimated the AAV, too.

    • Name
      December 15, 2017 at 4:39 pm

      Both are horrific deals.

      Cozart can’t stay healthy with <120 games the last 3 years and his career OPS+ is 92. Also his biggest asset is his defense at SS which is where the Angels won't be using him. He deserved around 2/16.

      Santana just makes no sense at all. First off 1b/dh types are going for pennies on the dollar these days and the Phillies decide to make the same mistake they made with Ryan Howard and pay $20 a year for an aging 1b whose bat last year was ranked just 18th in terms of wRC. Yes his bat is below average for 1b.
      Second, did they forget about Hoskins? Hello? 18 HRs in 50 games. Are they just going to give up on him or attempt to go the Duda route and let him butcher it in the OF?
      Again at the going rate for 1b/DH types he really only deserved around 2/20.

      • December 16, 2017 at 8:52 am

        I don’t disagree with you.

        But here’s where it gets to be a little bit of a double-edged sword for Alderson. When he doesn’t make these “horrific deals,” he gets accused of either being cheap or out of touch or misreading the market.

        If the choice is overpaying because that’s what the market is doing
        or
        Looking for value wherever/however possible

        I don’t think blindly criticizing the value option should be the default decision. Not searching hard enough for value or valuing sample size or “luck” or whatever should still be criticized…

        • Chris F
          December 16, 2017 at 9:39 am

          What I seem to miss in these kinds of evaluations is the notion that worth is linked to much more than on field production, multiply so during the post season. The other thing is that, like any commodity, worth is what someone is willing to pay. As a result, we get this split sense of value. Look at Carlos Beltran this year in Houston. His numbers were horrific, yet every person on the team raved about him as a critical component to success. That’s not lip service. Did he grade out to 16M$ of production? No chance….wait….hell yes! Some teams see a specific gap that they want a vet to fill, or come with a recommendation from a coach. Some of those people come in and earn their money in the clubhouse (Party at Napoli’s) or grooming the up and comers. There is value there, a lot of value, under the right conditions. In any event, I cant say. Any players’ value may change day by day, or even hour by hour. I get that this doesnt match some formula, like X M$ per WAR unit. It never will. And getting back to Alderson, this is his grand mistake. He dumpster dives because he opposes going toe-to-toe with other teams for talent. He believes there are n people capable of doing the same job, and if the “right” person is too much, then he’s on to the next person, a cheaper, and right down to the waiver dumpster and Rule 5. For this approach to be successful requires superior talent assessment, which is something this FO is clearly lacking.

          Back to 2015 and the “band-aid” approach to getting to the WS. It was a remarkable year to be sure. But heaping praise on Alderon’s approach is way over blown. The Nationals had an anomalously poor year, driven by internal strife that wracked the entire team, leading to Williams’ ouster. Im glad the Mets were able to opportunize on that. But the plan was not one for long term success, like for example, the Nats plan.

  11. Chris F
    December 15, 2017 at 4:23 pm

    Seems the Phillies want to turn the ship around

  12. Name
    January 13, 2018 at 2:34 pm

    Some updates:

    Bruce at 3/39 to the Mets – Joura had the exact terms but Netter correctly chose the Mets

    Reed at 2/17 to the Twins – Allison was the only one who forsaw less than 20 mil. Ferguson picked up on the twins part.

    Worth noting that both players ended up in the lower part of the range in the predictions. Most likely the rest of the FAs will also be closer to the predictions with lower terms.

    • Name
      January 26, 2018 at 1:43 pm

      Sample size of 1, but Cain to the Brewers for 5/80, which is higher than what most had predicted. But why did he wait so long? Was he getting offers on the lower end and then the Brewers blinked and said screw this just give him the money? Or did he have this offer for a bit and was just shopping around for something better?

      Here was a good in-depth piece about Cain’s prospect in FA. https://www.royalsreview.com/2017/11/20/16655100/royals-free-agents-how-much-will-lorenzo-cain-get. On the bottom you’ll see another group of projections and once again he got the higher end.

      • January 26, 2018 at 7:30 pm

        The link was a good article. I think my favorite thing in there was the chart comparing Fowler and Cain in the three years prior to their big free agent contract and how Fowler had more PA. Brings the point about Cain’s durability to the forefront.

        I know a lot of Mets fans wanted Cain but I’m glad they didn’t get in the bidding at this level. I can’t imagine the Cardinals are thrilled with Fowler right now and I expect the Brewers will feel the same with Cain, especially if FanGraphs is right and he’s no longer a defensive whiz in CF. His UZR/150 was only 2.4 last year

  13. Chris F
    January 13, 2018 at 4:00 pm

    On the radio ths morning Steve Sax and Ryan Spilborgs mentioned GM “collusion”. I practically fell out of my car on the highway.

    The number of extraordinarily bad long term huge contracts is plainly obvious. Going past 3-4 yrs is going to be rarer and rarer, and should be. You need to be in the Mike Trout – Bryce Harper kind of territory: young and a superstar. Pujols, Arod, Cano, Sandoval, Price, Upton, Heyward, Jones, Shields and on and on…. say one thing — dont do it.

    The other thing this year is Boras. Its the elephant in the room. I think he’s a complete infection on the sport. And a lot of GMs are a bit tired of the schtick.

    • Name
      January 13, 2018 at 4:28 pm

      As a fan, one could say “Who cares, its not money, it’s the owners”. Oh how false that is.
      The fans are paying for everything. Wonder why ticket prices, parking fees, concession food keeps going up and up? To pay for escalating player salaries. How about that “free” TV revenue that each team gets? Well, if you still get cable and you’ll notice a sports fee that seemingly gets increased every year. Yes, the TV revenue ultimately still comes from the consumer. It’s not like the money is created from thin air by TV networks.

      Hopefully by giving less stupid contracts to players it will trickle down to the fans pocket.

  14. February 6, 2018 at 8:19 am

    Frazier to the Mets – 2/$17. Five of us had him joining the Mets but no one was close on the terms, as we all had 3 years at a much higher AAV. Joe was fairly close on terms, having the right length and a cheaper AAV than the 3-year crowd but was still over what Frazier signed for.

  15. February 10, 2018 at 8:49 pm

    Darvish to Cubs with 6/$126 deal with incentives that could make it $150. Dalton, Joe and David all got the destination and Scott pretty close on terms if he reaches all of the incentives.

  16. Name
    March 9, 2018 at 12:17 am

    Moose crawls back to the Royals for 1/$6.5 mil with $2.2 mil in incentives. I’ll assume he reaches most of them are pretty reachable if he stays healthy so let’s call it $1/8mil, which means some of predictions were only off by… 97 million…

    In hindsight the Angels look like even bigger idiots signing the never healthy Cozart to 3/38 to play 3b when both Frazier and Moose get under $10 mil AAV.

  17. Name
    March 13, 2018 at 12:13 pm

    2018 All bargain Team. Only guys who signed 1 year deals

    C- Lucroy, $6.5 mil
    1b- Duda, $3.5 mil
    2b- Walker, $5 mil
    SS-Alcides Escobar, $2.5 mil
    3b- Nunez, $4 mil
    OF-Granderson, $5 mil
    OF- Carlos Gomez, $4 mil
    OF- Maybin, $3.25 mil

    Bench – Matt Adams – $4 mil
    Bench – Rene Rivera – $2.8 mil
    Bench – Reyes – $2 mil
    Bench – Chris Young – $2 mil
    Bench – Bourjas – $1.45 mil

    SP- Jaime Garcia, $10 mil
    SP- Sabathia, $10 mil
    SP- Mike Fiers, $6 mil
    SP – Miguel Gonzalez, $4.75 mil
    SP- Doug Fister, $4 mil

    SP/RP- Koehler, $2 mil
    RP- Bud Norris, $3 mil
    RP – Seung-Hwan Oh, $2.75 mil
    RP- Boone Logan, $2.5 mil
    RP – Romo, $2.5 mil
    RP – Zach Duke, $2.15 mil
    RP – Benoit, $1 mil

    Total Cost: $96.65 mil. Lack of high end SP is obviously the biggest weakness. Probably could win 70-75 games. The team would be a lot more exciting if i included guys that got 2 year deals.

  18. March 13, 2018 at 12:38 pm

    The Arrieta deal is very interesting.

    3/$75 although he can opt out after 2 years and $55 million. However, the Phillies can cancel the opt out by guaranteeing two additional years past the 3-year deal at $20 million per year. Those team option years also have $5 million in incentives based on starts. Plus, there are bonuses in those years if he has a top 5 finish in the Cy Young Award race in either ’18 or ’19. If Phillies void the option and he maxes out on all incentives, it’s a 5/$135 deal.

    So, it can be any of the following:

    2/$55
    3/$75
    5/$115-$155

    So, if you’re the Phillies, what do you hope for from this deal?

    • Name
      March 13, 2018 at 2:14 pm

      I always wondered teams would start to get creative and have both player/team options in the same deal.

      Im not sure of the exact details / order of preference for the options, but my interpretation is:
      A 2 year/$55 mil deal with a team option for 3 years/$60-80 mil.
      If the team declines the option, then Arrieta has a player option for 1 year/$20 mil.
      But it’s possible that the team has the right to exercise the last 2 years of the contract even after Arrieta exercises his player option for the 3rd year.

      It’s a fascinating deal to analyze if you like game theory.
      If the Phillies exercise the option, that means that they got 2 good seasons out of Arrieta and while soon to be 34, he and the Phillies are good enough that they want him around for veteran leadership.
      If the Phillies decline the team option, that means Arrieta will not be good anymore or the Phillies rebuild failed or the Phillies fear regression the last 2 years of the contract. If Arrieta’s no good anymore,he will exercise his player option and the Phillies are stuck with $20 mil sunk cost. If the Phillies decline the option because they aren’t good and don’t want to waste $20 mil on a lost season or they fear regression, what Arrieta might do would depend on his performance and whether the FA market rebounds back to “normal” levels.

      So the only conclusion i would make right now is that 3/$75 doesn’t lead to good outcomes for the Phillies, but i also see that as the most likely scenario as i don’t think Arrieta will turn in 2 consecutive good campaigns and the Phillies will probably fear regression the last 2 years.

      My current odds of what might happen:
      Team:Decline, Player:Decline – 5%
      Team:Decline, Player:Exercise-75%
      Team:Exercise – 20%

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