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The Mets signed Adrian Gonzalez. OK, you might think, bring him in on a minor league deal – what could it hurt? Nope, they’re signed him to a major league contract. Maybe it’s a technicality that it has to be done that way. Maybe, since they’re only on the hook for the minimum wage with the Braves picking up the rest, it doesn’t really matter much. Still, the optics are bad, if your name is Dominic Smith or if you want Smith to get a real shot.
It’s been suggested – ok, by me – that this version of the Mets greatly prefer giving someone else’s trash a shot over someone from their own farm system. And here we see evidence of that once again. Perhaps it’s too harsh to call Gonzalez trash. But he was gladly discarded by two other organizations, including one with strong playoff aspirations (Dodgers) and one likely not competing for the postseason this year (Braves.)
Gonzalez is one year removed from putting up a .285/.349/.435 line. He’ll also turn 36 in May and is coming off a year with a .642 OPS. And that 2016 line isn’t something to do jumping jacks about, either. The average NL first baseman that year had an .809 OPS. So, Gonzalez was an above-average first baseman in 2015, a below-average one in 2016 and both injured and lousy in 2017.
Since 1980, there have been 77 first basemen to amass at least 200 PA at age 35. Gonzalez ranks 73rd on this list with his .262 wOBA and 69 wRC+ year. Want a Mets-related comparison? In 1989 Keith Hernandez put up a .299 wOBA and a 93 wRC+ in 244 PA in his final season with the Mets.
So, let’s set the over/under for Gonzalez in 2018 what Hernandez did for Cleveland in 1990 – 145 PA, a .521 OPS, a .240 wOBA and a 44 wRC+
If you simply had to bring in an over-the-hill guy, my preference would have been to give a shot to Rafael Palmeiro. If you’re going to try to catch lightning in a bottle, at least have a sense of humor about it. You could have given him an NRI and not forced a roster decision here in January. The Gonzalez deal is pending a physical and as of press time, the Mets have yet to make a roster move.
The assumption is that the Mets will remove a position player from the 40-man for Gonzalez, with speculation being that Matt Reynolds is the guy most in jeopardy of being replaced. There’s nothing preventing the club from dropping a pitcher instead, which ought to make Josh Smoker nervous. But if they were to go this route, no doubt that the lefty Smoker would continue his undeserved charmed life and that Kevin McGowan would be ahead of him on the chopping block.
What are the other ramifications of the Gonzalez signing? Well, it makes things very interesting once Michael Conforto is ready to go, especially if the Mets do plan to go with an eight-man bullpen. That means one fewer reserve infielder or outfielder. If they opt to go short in the outfield, it means a return to Triple-A for Brandon Nimmo. It’s not so clear cut what they would do in the infield.
If they opted for just five infielders, Wilmer Flores would have to be on the roster for his willingness to stand at each of the four positions. So, does the Gonzalez addition shut the door on acquiring a starting 2B or 3B? It’s possible that’s what this means. But if they do sign an infielder, it would most likely mean Smith going back to Las Vegas.
There’s a school of thought that a guy at Smith’s young age should “earn” his position in the majors by excelling right away and that his .198/.262/.395 line is indicative of the fact that he failed his audition and needs more seasoning in the minors. Personally, I’m more encouraged by his .198 ISO than I am discouraged by his .218 BABIP.
Once again, the Mets have seemingly said that what a player did for another organization years ago trumps both what that player did more recently and what a young guy from their own system might do if given a shot. Gonzalez’ .642 OPS in 2017 is nothing to worry about because he was a good hitter in 2015. Smith’s .658 OPS is troubling because he’s young; it’s proof that he’s not ready for the majors.
Which one do you think happens more often – a young hitter scuffling in his first appearance in the majors who turns it around in his second shot? Or an injured guy who already showed signs of decline coming back at age 36?
If the Mets open 2018 with a starting infield comprised of Gonzalez, Flores and Asdrubal Cabrera and combine that with an 8-man bullpen, that’s going to be a tough thing for me to support. In my opinion, it’s just nowhere close to the way a team should be run.
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If Gonzalez replaces the 40th man on the Mets roster that’s not as bad as past seasons signings of LOOGY’s who destroy the depth in the bullpen. I agree it does fit Aldersons pattern of trying to find lightning in a bottle and having very little patience with the kids the team brings up. Did something happen with Smith while he was up last September that the press has not reported to sour Alderson so fast on the youngster? Makes you wonder Brian. My last thought on Gonzalez was how can you plan a family vacation with your team making it to the World Series? If he’s a clubhouse leader it shows little concern for his teammates.
Did I miss it but don’t the Mets have to make a 40 man adjustment for Jay Bruce? I believe this would further compromise the 40 man roster more,
You are correct. I thought they were at 39 for the Rule 5 Draft and that left a spot for Bruce but I just counted 40 on the roster posted at Mets.com and Bruce is not on that.
No 13 man bullpen! Low risk gamble, if Gonzales can’t play,he is cut and Smith if he is playing well gets promoted.
Brian, you are an astute observer of the game and our team , especially over time. Your analysis rings true , albeit dependent on my ability to sort through the stats and apply the logic and variables to a quite human situation. So, There’s the thing, no matter the history and prior experience, there is the human factor. Haven’t we all been part of an exceptional event where will and determination and dare I say, the divinely inspired… superceded our anticipated outcome? I’m certainly not discounting the facts on the ground, nor the power of elegant mathematical precision. I am simply suggesting that at 36 years, granted the obvious limitations and the declining physical nature of most of mere humans notwithstanding , that said individual could have a rejuvenated season , given that the stars aligned precisely , and God willed it so. The other elements of how it aligns with the mechanics of other players interactions is undeniable, however if he defies predictions and has an impact beyond our preconceptions , then my friend, he will be worth his weight in bitcoins. A big ask and a even larger aspiration, but remembering that we are die hard Mets fans , with trained forgiving psyches , then I say Wtf, it’s only 545k and release his sorry butt if he smells like old socks!
If we had the game figured out, there would be no reason to watch. All we can do is play the percentages. If a move fails 90% of the time, that still means it works every once in awhile. But you want to be on the side of the 90% not the 10% side.
Agreed Brian. But who is the 90% option at 1B? Smith?
My reading of the tea leaves is that unless Gonzalez falls on his face, he’s the Opening Day 1B and Smith is back in Vegas.
It has been a while since I posted here and I grant you that most of what I say here will be speculation but I don’t hate this signing.
1) with all the talk this off season of the mets interested in adding a lefty 1st baseman I have often wondered if smith will be part of the package in trade for a 2nd basemen. I never really saw Morrison or Lind as OF options but as half of a 1st base platon ok. Then in recent days I viewed the rumor of a potential Duda reunion to mean they have always been looking at 1st.
2) That either meant to me that Dom is not ready or they know they will lose him in any deal for 2nd base and because of that they are trying to set up that 1st base platon.
3) All year we have heard the mets will have a lower payroll so if you are like me and hope to see them add ether a 2nd or 3rd baseman and a lefty reliever to compete with Smoker I’m ok if that a-gon only coast the league minimum.
4) Of course only time will tell if I’m correct but if the mets trade Smith and other pieces for a 2nd/3rd baseman then sign say a Watson then I’ll be ok with A-Gon/Floris
5) As for the bench management I have never believed a team with an 8 man pen could or would carry 5 outfielders. they are more likely to carry an infielder they believe can play the OF. Weather that guy actually can or not. For this team I don’t know if that 25th guy will be reyes or TJ but when Conforto is Healthy I don’t see both Lagures and Nimmo on the bench.
6) When Bruce and A-gon pass their physicals the mets will have to clear at least 2 roster spots. Maybe more for whatever they get back. Call me crazy but I believe a trade is eminent and what’s more I believe sandy has always intended to trade smith as part of it and that’s why he has been looking at 1st base all offseason. Is a-gon the best option? of course not but could he be a low key addition that helps this team build a winning roster absolutely.
All I’m saying is it’s too soon to tell how good or bad this signing is until you see the context of the 25 man roster but then again that’s just one fans opinion.
You make a good point about a potential Smith trade.
I also like your position that an 8-man pen should result in 4 OFers. However, with Bruce’s ability to play 1B, you might be more open to going with 5 infielders.
JC, you make a couple of very interesting points regarding Dom Smith & I think your thoughts might be spot-on. Sandy might already have a ‘potential’ deal or deals on the burner (hopefully for 3B as opposed to 2B) all including Dom for whatever reason. He might also be thinking that Alonzo is more the longer turn solution to 1B & therefore we can go a season with a L/R platoon of Gonzalez or Bruce along with Wilmer. Why else would we even be looking at bring back Duda at this time? My fear would be that Dom goes on to another team & becomes an All Star for the next 8 years or so….lol
My opinion from the start is that we should give Dom another year, based on his track record, & slot Wilmer into a platoon if needed. My priority would be for a real 3B solution.Lot’s of food for thought as far as what Sandy has up his sleeve.
Something worth noting since Bruce was praised as a leader and clubhouse guy in an earlier post, Gonzalez has the opposite track record from his time in Bos and LA.
Sent a text to Bos ownership asking for Valentine to be fired and was not invited to the WS last year, teammates didn’t get along with him.
Mehhh, different relationships expose different attitudes. I’ve had enough girlfriends and wives to attest to that! I agree that history inclines, but it doesn’t necessarily define. Moreover , when you’re winning , the success breeds harmony. If were are losing then everyone is edgy and acts animalistic dependent on personality
Oh yeh…, there’s also the fact that I’m arguing the merits of polygrip versus dentucreme with my peers, that has me rooting for the ancient thirty six year old multimillionaire… so there’s that! Admittedly, I somewhat live vicariously through the exploits of seemingly washed up pro athletes. So, please Allow me my illusions! Grins.
You already had both Flores and Bruce if Smith fails at first base.I simply don’t understand this move .
Seems like deja vue, with Gonzalez playing the James Loney role this time.
A) spring training mentor and motivation for Smith.
B) insurance if Smith needs further AAA seasoning.
C) can platoon with Flores for a month or two. Then Bruce takes over when Conforto returns. This allows Smith to get traded.
In any of these scenarios AGon is worth a league minimum salary. If some AAAA player is a casualty we don’t need to lose sleep.
My feeling is this. It definitely gives Smith the motivation to stand tall and earn this. Im not worried about a bot of competition for him. He seems to thrive on being in a bad bad and making the most of it. The Mets recruited this guy since he was in diapers, he’s not going anywhere. An extension of this is simple. The Mets do not have a veteran 1B in the system that can help a youngster be a pro, unless you include whatever he hears from Mex here and there. Its not enough. So you pay a guy 540k to play 30-40 games, ride the pine, and help Smith learn the game. As we saw he was full of poor judgement on the field, so having someone whos seen it all giving a hand seems reasonable.
Im not really concerned about the Dodgers letting him go. The fact is, they have a 1B superstar and even of they dont care about the salary, they need the roster spot. Atlanta is irrelevant in this since the trade was more business transaction than a baseball deal.
For Agon to even get a uniform on, he needs to have epidural shats to relieve back pain. I think its a surprise to see him get > 50 starts next season. But In the absence of a first baseman, Bruce included, Smith will need time resting. No way hes plying 162 games at 1B.
I dont see this as a lightning in a bottle signing. I dont see this as a warning to Smith. I see this as cheap insurance and coaching. Another thing I like is the trimming down of the 40 man, which is loaded with crap. Its time for Reynolds and Cecchini and then some to move on.
I assume they will sign a 2bman….Flo and Gonzalez will straight platoon, with Flo taking some “rover” ab’s at other positions.
Smith cannot be “blocked by AG”…he’s very young and he will play when he knocks the door down….and an assignment back to AAA won’t hurt him.
This is all reflective of the fact that they are going to roll out these pitchers and pray for health and performance.
I give them an A+ for their intellingent approach this off season
PS… I don;t believe in “finishing rosters” in January…. most especially for this squad. If Nimmo and Lagares hit, it’s a wonderful “problem” upon Conforto’s return. You guys who are worried about forcing good players back to Triple A or the Bench…. gee wiz!!!! For all the Lament about lack of Lineup and Lack of Trade Assets–too many good players is never a problem.
Here are a few points to ponder.
Gonzalez is a minimum wage investment.
In Los Angeles, Cody Bellinger burst on to the scene in a big way and left no room for Gonzalez.
It is now the middle of January. If there have been any Dominic Smith sightings, has he taken his conditioning seriously and lost weight or is he still appear to be 30-40 pounds overweight. This could have a big part in the Mets signing Gonzalez.
I’d rather have 1 year of Gonzalez at minimum wage rather than signing a similar type player for $ 4-5 million per year.
Maybe Gonzalez is secretly a slick fielding third baseman. Ha Ha Ha
“Once again, the Mets have seemingly said that what a player did for another organization years ago trumps both what that player did more recently and what a young guy from their own system might do if given a shot”
I personally don’t find your opposite spectrum philosophy to be any better. For you, it seems like you would like to keep giving the young guy the opportunity no matter how bad they have been in the majors or minors.
Last year i repeatedly asked you how bad Smith would have to be in order for you to consider drop him from consideration to be on the team for 2018 and you just kept saying – we’ll see. Evidently a 71 OPS+ and -1.2 bWAR wasn’t too low . What about if it were 50? or 30? Even if statistical measures aren’t what you would use to judge a youngsters the non-quantitative narrative on him haven’t been glowing it either. His approach at the plate was bad. The defense was awful. He of course doesn’t have any running skills to bolster his case. The only positive were the HRs, which isn’t a rare commodity in this era right now.
I would be all for supporting the youngster if he has shown a glimmer of hope, but if all you’re banking on is the fact that he’s young, i can’t support that.
We know that Smith has taken awhile to adapt to a new level. He’s done it at pretty much every stop.
In his first 71 PA, he had a .164/.197/.313 line with a .160 BABIP
In his final 112 PA, he had a .220/.304/.450 line with a .267 BABIP
We already saw improvement and there’s plenty more room for him to get better. The NL average for BABIP last year was .302 and I don’t see any reason to project that Smith will be significantly below league average.
I’d rather bank on a 23-year-old reverting to league average in BABIP than a 36-year-old bouncing back from injury and declining performance.
There’s a case to be made to bring in someone to replace Smith. I just don’t see any way where Adrian Gonzalez is the guy to do it.
I don’t see it as an improvement, but rather an anomaly.
First 71 PA: .164/.197/.311
Middle 60 PA: .315/.383/.630
Last 52 PA: .109/.212/.239
While he may regress back positively for BABIP, i also see him regressing negatively for HR rates. Smith had a 22.5% HR/FB% while the 1b average for HR/FB% was 17.5% and I don’t see any reason to project that Smith will be above average.
I think it’s reasonable to expect the HR rate to drop. I also think it’s reasonable to expect the K rate to drop, too.
Brian,
My initial reaction was similar to your head scratching. However, after further thought, I tend to agree with Name for several reasons. The is low cost/risk, even if the have to DFA someone from the bottom of the 40 man; I don’t see any player that they should fear losing. I actually see this move as less of an indictment on Dom, as a signing of Morrison, Lind, or Duda would have most definitely cost him his position. I am a Dom supporter and fully agree that his late 2017, while disappointing, is way to small a sample size. However, the Mets still have the ability to contend in 2018, and can’t simply hand a prospect 1B. There is nothing wrong with farming a 23 year old for more seasoning, or using him to trade for a quality player with multiple years of control (Mr. Harrison). I would not deal him for a re,and even in the unlikely event that AGon shows he has something left, barring the fountain of youth or hgh he is not a long term threat to a quality 1B prospect.
Brian I thought you once said that statistics for the month of September should be taken with some skepticism with so many teams expanding their rosters.
There’s an old saying that you should never trust stats put up in April or September. I’ve always took that to be a sample size warning. But others, most notably Name, take it to be about the quality of competition.
$550,000 won’t stand in the way of Dom Smith.
Brian,
I agree with much of your argument, but I have a problem I need to set forth about the “new” comments policy and something in your article. the Rafael Palmeiro “joke” is in my opinion a cheap and smarmy attack that serves only to undercut the thrust of your otherwise well thought out piece. Good for the goose, good for the gander, Brian …
We have completely different definitions of smarmy. I view smarmy as over-the-top, insincere flattering. I wasn’t flattering Palmeiro – I called him an over the hill guy.
That aside, thank you for the kind words.
It seems to me that too many people here are overthinking this move. I don’t think it means an imminent move for Smith (unless that move is to Las Vegas) nor does it mean an 8 man pen or a 4 man bench. I do believe it is a lightning in a bottle kind of play. A-Gon is a cheaper alternative to Lind or Morrison. If he shows he can cut it during spring training, he will be on the team (in a Flores platoon) and Smith will return to AAA for more seasoning. It is a very low risk/high reward situation.
Meanwhile, the low cost frees Alderson to devote more $$$ to roster building. I see one more quality player, an infielder, (think Harrison, Frazier, Kendrick, Walker, Nunez) and then it is fill-in time. He will probably add Reyes on a “home discount” deal and a pitcher or two from the leftovers, on minor league deals. Maybe he will bring in even more as non-roster invitees. But that will be it.
Bargain bin sales. That is the strategy. As I had written earlier, I wonder what Dominic Smith weighs today on January 14th. Is he still heavy and out of shape or has he taken his conditioning seriously and shaped up. It is a valid question and the answer would shed light on the Agon move, especially after signing Bruce, who can also play first.
This signing to me is a good bench player who can also play the field. Major league minimum salary to boot. If you don’t overthink this what’s the real harm?
No harm at all. Minimum wage deal, veteran player, could have a big upside and surprise, or if he doesnt cut it, he gets cut.
The harm is the PA going to a guy with nothing left.
It doesn’t get any more exciting than this, admittedly. 74 wins? 73 wins? And now, having actually made the team worse by pushing Nimmo and Lagares from the 3/4 OF slots to the 4/5 slots in order to A) start Bruce in the OF where he’s almost certain to produce less than that pair per PA, and B) move Conforto from a corner to CF, which costs the team close to a win all on its own–well, I haven’t seen FO blundering like this in a very long time.
Oh, and the team actually paid for the privilege of getting a couple of games worse. The Bruce signing isn’t quite legendary, but it certainly nibbles at the word.
It’s impressive, in its way. The Mets were solid in one area–the OF, and they had holes everywhere else. So where did they decide to make a move? Yup. You guessed it.
+1
The Bruce signing was insurance for Smith and Conforto, then they could trade him for a better AA reliever. The AGone signing was _______. Only Sandy knows.
I can’t understand why Sandy continues to bury his youngsters.
Bruce had played 15 games at 1b as of the Mets 2017-18 offseason signing. He wasn’t insurance for Smith. As for Conforto, it’s hard to figure a 3/39m signing when you have holes everywhere else. A 3-year insurance policy? For your best player?
My first reaction yesterday or Saturday or whenever I heard about the Gonzalez signing was exactly the title of this post: Head-Scratcher. How does Gonzalez merit a spot on the 40-man more than either Reynolds or Cecchini? While I won’t cry if either (or both) gets cut, at least they can each play middle infield in a pinch. Gonzalez is one-dimensional (1B) and it seems nuts betting on him to replicate 2015 numbers more than 2016 and 2017 numbers. I suppose I could understand it if he hit right handed, but bringing him in as a LHH 1B only guy makes no sense (at any cost).
Another couple points: (1) I do not believe that management is shortsighted enough to trade Dom . .there is not a player out there (Harrison, Kipnis, etc.) that is worth trading a former #1 pick that while having a rough major league start, had a monster last two years in AA and AAA. He will be very good player for years to come. (2) Dom does not need more seasoning in Las Vegas. I guess if they had already moved their AAA club to Syracuse, I might be able to see that it might be worth it for a couple months, but not in Vegas where hitting is really a different sport. He already proved he could hit there. Send him there to beat up on that league again won’t do much for his ML development at this point.
The back story here is that the Mets are extremely disappointed that Dom came to camp the past two years in shape, but immediately went back to bad habits and by season’s end, he was fat and slow, which impacted his defense. Mets were upset that the staff in Vegas let Amed and Dom do as they wish, so Sandy wants Dom to get it together before he gets starting job. Cheap and disposable insurance and if Dom steps up, the job is his, but I like Sandy’s intolerance for this shortcomings
Then the Mets cannot afford to sign Bartolo. Imagine Bartolo and Dom at the rib joint. I wish Dom the best. Remember, Judges first short stint was worse than Doms.
Bartolo? Colon? If yes. Why?
Interesting to see Gonzalez actually producing at this point.
Color me surprised. Serious injury, serious surgery, looked lost all of last year, and is really, really old for a regular.
Hope it works out. If he’s even just decent, it’s a very smart pickup.
agreed. last night alone he earned the total salary the Mets will pay.