Monday catch-all thread (5/21/18)

The cult of Mesoraco faces its stiffest test yet, as he’ll be behind the plate for a Jason Vargas start Monday night. Rainouts and days off allowed the Mets to skip Vargas last time through the rotation. In case you’ve forgotten, he’s 0-3 with a 13.86 ERA. He’s walking too many guys and is getting killed by the HR ball. In 12.1 IP, he’s allowed 7 BB and 5 HR.

Hopefully Vargas has used the time off between starts to reflect, watch some video and throw some bullpens. Meanwhile, hopefully Mesoraco has watched video of Vargas last April and this year and can help him rediscover whatever it was that made him so good the first month of 2017. If he coaxes a strong start from Vargas, my calculations show that makes the Mets World Series favorites.

28 comments for “Monday catch-all thread (5/21/18)

  1. Pete from NJ
    May 21, 2018 at 8:23 am

    On Louis Guillume. Maybe it looks dumb after yesterday’s performance but I believe
    Amed Rosario needs to revamp his swing at AAA.

    Did Amed hear Guillume’s footsteps?

  2. Madman
    May 21, 2018 at 8:47 am

    Whoa,WS favorites?

  3. eraff
    May 21, 2018 at 9:56 am

    Rosario is down to Lessons that He can learn exclusively at the MLB level against MLB Pitchers. He would get sent down if he’s being crushed and he’s giving up–that hasn’t happened.

    If you can’t let a high talent Upside Kid to suffer through the MLB “Initiation”, you can’t have Nice things!

    • David Groveman
      May 21, 2018 at 1:09 pm

      Thank you, I agree regarding Rosario.

  4. Steve S.
    May 21, 2018 at 10:27 am

    Amed Rosario ranks near the bottom of NL shortstops for a number of fielding stats. Low dWar, RF, #DP!

    • May 21, 2018 at 11:18 am

      The advanced defensive numbers don’t like his range.

      I wouldn’t use RF or DPs because those are too dependent on the pitching staff. A staff with a lot of ground ball pitchers who don’t pile up strikeouts will have fielders with higher RF numbers. A staff that doesn’t strike guys out and gives up lots of hits will have a lot of DPs.

      One thing that I found curious when looking at Rosario’s numbers are his RZR, which takes the balls hit in your zone and then divides by the number of plays you made. Of the 13 NL SS who qualified for the FG leaderboards, Rosario was smack dab in the middle in RZR with a .797 mark, which ranked seventh.

      So, how can UZR and DRS think his range is bad when he’s middle of the pack in balls hit in his zone? I don’t know the answer. Maybe he muffed a couple of balls that were relatively easy, which is not unusual for a young SS.

  5. TJ
    May 21, 2018 at 3:31 pm

    I agree with ERaff above in that Amed needs to improve at the big league level unless he just gets overwhelmed.

    That said, we all knew ahead of time that he was a free swinger and would need to improve plate discipline with experience. Most disappointing/concerning to me is his lack of refinement in the rest of his game – fielding, base stealing, and bunting. I find this to be more of an indictment of the Met system than the player. All prospects develop at their own pace, but it is very frustrating to see other teams, especially in the division, producing youngsters that look more refined. Even at 22, Amed has played more than enough baseball to be able to bunt for a hit and swipe some more bags. He is among the fastest baserunners in the game. And, while I don’t fully trust the defensive stats, even to the naked eye he does not look like a plus defender, and clearly does not get good jumps on balls to his right. Not everyone can be Lindor from the get go , but with his physical skills, why is this the case?

    • TexasGusCC
      May 21, 2018 at 10:12 pm

      Rosario is in the middle of the Mets team stats in pitches per plate appearance with 3.44. That’s not terrible.

  6. eraff
    May 21, 2018 at 4:54 pm

    I’m distrustful of Defensive Stats….especially on a young and developing player. I like to see if guys can make plays they should make, and Rosario has Nice Hands and a Good Arm. As for Range…my view is that I have seen him throw after tough “picks” and on the move. I’m good with that as an indication that He can be a Play Maker, and I believe the Defensive Statistics will be in his favor in the long run.

    The division is packed with nice young Shortstops— The Kids in Washington and Atlanta are terrific young defenders and good players.

    Whether You give Him a chance or not, he’s gonna get a full shot…. I’m gonna be patient. I think there’s a good chance that he’s very big player waiting to blossom.

  7. Eraff
    May 21, 2018 at 10:12 pm

    Rosario!!!! I got your Range Factor!!!!

    • TexasGusCC
      May 21, 2018 at 10:13 pm

      🙂

  8. TexasGusCC
    May 21, 2018 at 10:15 pm

    Who is surprised? Mets going after Bautista.

    https://twitter.com/NYPost_Mets/status/998676632939499520

    I’m going to puke.

    • May 21, 2018 at 10:29 pm

      He may suck but I’d still rather see him in the OF than Flores.

      • TexasGusCC
        May 22, 2018 at 1:25 am

        Well, true dat. But, that’s a roster spot that and we have wasted enough of them.

  9. eraff
    May 22, 2018 at 7:15 am

    a 10 day look-see on Bautista?….. Take Buddy Bauman off the 40. Not much roster pressure until Swarzak comes back.

    If Jose Bats, then you actually have some roster flex for possible down-the -line moves.

    The question is whether you let Jose Bat for some of the next 10 or so days instead of Wilmer and Evans. It’s hard to believe in the guy—he did a pretty hard fade.

    • TexasGusCC
      May 22, 2018 at 8:10 am

      If you’re going to put a statue in the outfield that can’t hit, why not let Smith stand there?

  10. eraff
    May 22, 2018 at 8:33 am

    They need a RH Bat, Gus…. and Smith is Lefty, and still has work to do at the MILB Level.

    You’re talking about the 40th spot on the roster—Buddy Bauman…. the big question is whether the Manager is willing to play him for a week. I’d say that the last 800 ab’s are JB’s present Level—I’d pass, even though I get the logic.

  11. eraff
    May 22, 2018 at 9:31 am

    Additional Thoughts on Rosario—take a look at Lewis Brinson, a high flying prospect himself. He is looking bad and he is looking Buried. That’s an excample of a Guy who may need an MILB “Vacation” to clear his head. Lewis Brinson is “what it looks like” when a young guy is buried.

    Rosario continues to do what I thought he’d do…1. Struggle 2. Flash Major ability.

    It’s been my position that he will do both…because that’s what 22 year old players do! As long as he’s not “buried”, he stays.

    PS…at the far end of this…he doesn’t need to become a top 10 player to be a success. That’s unfair. He’s not “finished”, and he’s not going to be great at every facet of the game. He does have a shot at being an upper level SS, and an excellent offensive player—I think a Guy with some pop.

    • TJ
      May 22, 2018 at 10:41 am

      Eraff,
      I agree and I want to be clear that my disappointment in Rosario is not a reflection on him but more of a reflection on the Met system…both in player procurement and development. Somehow, the Nats have delivered a 19 year old “elite prospect” to add to their positional depth. Yeah, the kid his an HR in his first AB, and we certainly can’t judge him on that. But, the trend is still there, and Alderson even admitted publicly after last season that he wasn’t happy with the lack of “preparedness” of the top young prospects. Is the fair to the Mets? I can’t say, maybe their experience is similar to the majority of teams, but unscientifically it seems that they aren’t as good on the prep side as their nearest competition.

  12. eraff
    May 22, 2018 at 12:28 pm

    You can’t measure young players against Harper and guys like that—The 19 year old kid from washington and the 2nd baseman for Atlanta— they may be “Harpers”. It’s an unfair expectation.

    • TJ
      May 22, 2018 at 1:44 pm

      Well, I agree to some degree, but not totally. Harper and Strasburg were top picks, which require tremendous losing to acquire. Additionally, the Nats were lucky enough to have “can’t miss” consensus #1 guys in years following lousy baseball.

      The guys I am comparing Rosario to are Acuna, Albies, Soto, Robles, etc, IFA signings at age 16, like Rosario and Wilmer. These too are lottery tickets, but the other NL East teams seem to do a better job of developing a prepping. Maybe it is a better job in selecting too. Or, maybe they are just lucky. But, the Mets most certainly have yet to come up with an IFA star in recent times, and haven’t been able to sign the Tatis Jrs. or Guererro Jrs either, and essentially the playing field has been leveled for IFAs. Still, even the Cubs (Glyber) and Yankees (Sanchez) have delivered studs as well, as have many other MLB teams. The Mets certainly did well with Familia, developing an All-star closer, but position-wise it has been disappointing. Hopefully Amed will show steady progress and ascend to an all-star caliber player.

  13. eraff
    May 22, 2018 at 3:35 pm

    No…you’re “comparing” him to a “why can’t he be like…” Look, if you’re expressing disappointment with the fact that you feel the organization doesn;t have enough “Studs”, I get it.

    BTW…. you can pick any guy you want, and he’s not Perfect when you see him every day. One of the guys you mention, Sanchez, can look like he’s never played his position, at times.

    I don’t think thing the measuring stick is “Generational Player”…. well, that actually takes some time to achieve and measure—and Rosario can be a heck of an Imperfect Player.

    TJ.. feel free to make perfection the enemy of good. The real problem is not the lack of a perfect young player—it’s actually the lack of imperfect, very good young players.

    • TJ
      May 22, 2018 at 5:02 pm

      Eraff,
      You make several good points but I do want to clarify my position on a few of your comments.

      I certainly realize that there are no perfect players, and I have made it a point not to compare Amed to other players. And, while I am disappointed, in no way have I given up on him or consider him a bust; I still him as highly probable in developing into a high quality player and asset.

      That said, while he is young, his is not extremely young, and we have seen multiple players hit the bigs and perform above average, and certainly above replacement level. For better or worse, FG and BR have him slightly above/below replacement level. Not all star level, replacement level. He is one on the fastest players in baseball and has 1 steal in a quarter of the season. Jay Bruce has two. That is quite mind boggling to me…whether he is being blocked, unable to read a good move, etc., he has been on 1B enough that there have to be 4 or 5 times already that he could just take the base due to lack of attention etc. In no way am I expecting a high OBP and major HR power, I’ll give him a pass on that. I’ll give him a pass on the defensive metrics. His bunting is non-existent which to me is organizationally inexcusable. Now, couple that with Dom Smith’s lack of preparedness for whatever reason and it is at least a partial indictment on the system as opposed to just saying a player is a bust. That is my main concern…that this organization does not do a good job of converting enough young prospects into above average major leaguers, and that guys getting to the majors may not be as prepared as those on opponent teams.

      • Name
        May 22, 2018 at 5:57 pm

        “that this organization does not do a good job of converting enough young prospects into above average major leaguers, and that guys getting to the majors may not be as prepared as those on opponent teams.”

        Umm… the entire pitching staff had early success. Lugo, Gsellman, TJ Rivera came out of nowhere 2 years ago. Conforto too….

        While the Mets successes are mostly on the pitching side, the Nats seem to fail a lot there. AJ Cole, Lucas Giolito, Reynaldo Lopez, Koda Glover, Erick Fedde. Michael Taylor is one guy on the hitting side.

        I don’t see any evidence that the Mets are particularly worse/better at developing talent than most clubs. You win some and lose a lot more

  14. TexasGusCC
    May 22, 2018 at 5:57 pm

    Bautista is signed, for, you’ll never guess… the league minimum. And he brings to the table: nothing. Not hitting; not defense. Sad to think there isn’t a kid that deserves those at bats. Even MDD for his defense is better than the next Rick Ankiel that Alderson discovered.

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