As the All-Star game rapidly approaches, heat records fall, and trade-talk heats up, it seems time to take stock of the NL East for the second half of the season. June was not a particularly strong month for the Mets, as we have become accustomed to, but thankfully not as horrific as usual. Coming out of June with a 15-15 record and still in first place six games over .500 is certainly a positive place as the dog days of summer set in. But as the designated Mayor of Panic City, it seems necessary to take an honest look at the numbers for the team and division rivals. The overall weakness of the NL East makes it clear there will be only one representative in the post season. The Mets remain odds-on favorites, but what else should we be talking about?
A team’s record is a team’s record. Anyone reading here for any length of time knows that this is a basic tenet of my thinking. This is especially true at the end of a season when no other adjustments to the numbers can occur. But here in the middle of the season, there are some bellwether numbers to consider. One thing the Mets are clearly struggling with is scoring runs. As of July 4th, here with a 4-4 tie game with the Yankees, the Mets have a +2-run differential, with an expected win percentage of .504. The scary thing here is that the Mets are tied with the Pirates for the lowest number of runs scored in the MLB. The power shortage needs to fix. Fortunately, this is being balanced by a terrifically stingy pitching staff led by Jacob deGrom and somewhat improved defense. Is this a recipe for a full season of games? Right the Mets have would be in third place based on run-differential records, behind both the Marlins and Braves.
Looking at reality, the Mets are four games ahead of the three teams for second place (Nationals, Braves, Phillies). That’s a remarkable grouping, leading me to think the East is pretty much a toss-up. No other division looks even near the same. Essentially any single series with a division rival has the potential to completely shake up the standings; there are 22 games left with the Braves, Nationals, and Phillies – not to mention 13 games against the Marlins, who never seem to be a pushover as has been discussed and against whom the Braves have a track record of demolishing. From the present state-of-affairs, it would seem the NL East is pretty much a free-for-all with four-team scrum, but is that how the oddsmakers and predictors see things?
To great surprise, outside eyes have a remarkably different view of the NL East. The first stop was looking in on the FanGraphs playoff odds tracker. Having spent the better part of 2 months riding atop the NL East has apparently bought some breathing space, as they have the Mets riding a 75% probability of making the post-season. No other team in the East has even a 20% probability as of Independence Day. The Braves have been on a long slide falling from a start of 65% to about 15% presently. Can a team tied for second and only four games back half way through the season be really left behind?
Next on the check-in list are long-time baseball nerds at FiveThirtyEight. The Mets sit in a little less bullish position, with about a 56% chance of making the post-season in their modeling, and the Braves clocking in with a 24% chance. That is still quite a gap but much closer than the FanGraphs prediction. Neither the Nationals nor the Phillies exceed 15%.
The last stop, and least bullish predictions comes from baseball reference. One thing worth noting is that the predictions models pretty closely link winning the division and getting to the post-season, which is consistent with the notion that the NL East will not likely carry two teams into October. Like FanGraphs and FiveThirtyEight, the main competition is the Braves. However, unlike the other two, Baseball-Reference has the Mets and Braves much closer at 35% and 29%, respectively – and the Nationals not much further behind at 21%.
As the trade deadline starts to come into focus, the Mets have the opportunity to address some needs that could help cement the division; presumably that would mean starting pitching help. As has been pointed out, the Mets typically play much better baseball in August and September to the tune of a .557 average winning percentage. Perhaps this fact is part of the prognosticating! Still, a four-game lead with half a season and 35 games remaining against the division seems pretty lean to me. Let’s hope that ownership isn’t afraid to invest in finding a Marcus Stroman-type starter to trade for, and well, that deGrom manages to keep an ERA under 1.00 and an ERA+ at 400!!
I see the Nets staying close due to pitching and great team chemistry. I see the Braves staying close due to very solid infield, and Acuna… pitching may betray them. I see the Phils staying close, their bullpen likely will fall short.
If the Mets remain steady in their pitching, with the starters and in the bullpen, they should be able to hold off the challenges from these teams. In the end, you have to hold the other team down, off the scoreboard. If DeGrom continues, Walker continues, Stroman stays close, and they get more help from Carrasco, Peterson, Megill, Oswalt… their offense will do just enough to win more than half their games.
But it’s a series-by-series proposition at this point. Luis Rojas has to manage… win every winnable game… steal a couple they might have otherwise lost… that’s how a pennant gets won.
I agree Wobbit. Series by series. Every out matters.
Now that the bats are back and the schedule is more normal I look for the Mets to go on a run and open a commanding lead by the trade deadline.
We are seeing some signs that the hitting and power are rebounding and that instills confidence that they will division. At least a .500 record in Intra-division game is very important. They failed last June but now they are healthier. I agree that a deadline for a mid rotation starting pitcher should a priority along with a healthy Carrasco. Is there any sense to the N.L. East ? Don’t panic Mayor, it is obvious….. believe in Metsense!
The NL East appears to be a toss up that any of the teams but the Marlins could win. Can’t see a second team making the playoffs from this division as was noted so playing strong in division could be a big factor. In a playoff series you would have to think the edge comes to the Mets with deGrom, Walker and Stroman. If the bats come alive I too see them making a run rattling off 5-6 in a row and putting some space between them and the rest of the pack.
The past three years, 2018-2020, the Mets are 6 games below .500 yet against the Marlins they are 31-17.
We haven’t yet seen a full-strength Mets team. The offense is deep and talented and just starting to crystallize now. The bullpen and defense are more dependable than in years. The weak point on this team is the backend of the rotation. Rather than trading half the farm for the good, but not great Jose Berrios, it shouldn’t take much to get Danny Duffy or similar. The Nats don’t have enough bats, the Braves not enough arms and the Phillies have too many holes. The Mets are going to win this division with about 92 wins. With a healthy rotation including Carasco and Syndergaard for the stretch run, this team has a real shot this year. LFGM
Duffy is having a good year and he is a better than an average pitcher. He is 32 yoa and a free agent next year. He is due approximately $7.5 m for the rest the year. Good call Matt.
I dont think you can count on Carrasco or Syndergaard in 2021. Even when they get rolling, there is zero reason either come back as top of the rotation. Long time off, real injuries. What happens if deGrom goes from extra-superhuman to superhuman?
Coming into June, the Mets had a bad record against teams with winning records (I don’t remember exactly but I think it was 2-13 at some point in late May) and everyone predicted a collapse. On the schedule were the Padres for 7, first place Cubs for 4, and plenty of Nats, Phillies and Braves – including doubleheaders. The only gimmies were the Orioles and D’Backs just two games a piece, and they went 2-2 in those games. Secret to winning a division is to feast on the guppies and hold your own against the sharks. That’s what the Mets did.
Agreed Gus. And taking down Woodruff last night was special. More hits. Keep the line moving. Very Chili Davis like.
What the halfway mark told me is that there is one team from the NL East to make the playoffs (by default), and that about 85 wins should get them that. I believe .500 the rest of the way will get them the division. The other commenters/writers have set the ink about the others in the division. None are strong enough for one reason or another to go on the tear needed to capture the division.
Also, recent Mets teams have a very good track record over the last couple full seasons to play well after the all-star break. Nimmo can make a huge difference at the top.