Please use this thread all week to discuss any Mets-specific topic you wish.

In 2021, Mets starting pitchers were 32-57. Yeah, we all know wins aren’t the best way to judge starters. But that’s just terrible. Leaving out Jacob deGrom and Marcus Stroman, here’s how Mets starters with at least four starts fared last year as a SP:

Taijuan Walker: 7-11, 4.43 ERA
Tylor Megill: 4-6, 4.52
David Peterson: 2-6, 5.54
Rich Hill: 1-4, 3.58
Carlos Carrasco: 1-5, 6.04
Joey Lucchesi: 0-3, 4.31
Jerad Eickoff: 0-2, 9.00

Carlos Rodon – come on down!

23 comments on “Wednesday catch-all thread (12/29/21)

  • JimO

    What is everyone’s thoughts regarding the lock-out? Does anyone think that Spring Training will open up on-time?

    • Brian Joura

      I think that little progress made before the end of the year was pretty much expected. Let’s see what happens when the calendar turns to January. If there are no substantial talks in January then it will be time to be worried.

  • JimmyP

    I don’t think they begin talking seriously until the middle of March.

  • Metsense

    The second half numbers were the real problem. The 2022 rotation is Scherzer and who else that is not a question mark.
    Walker, 0-8, 7.03 ERA
    Megill, 4-6, 4.77 ERA
    Peterson, injured
    Carrasco, 1-5, 6.04 ERA
    Lucchesi, injured
    Williams, 1-0 , 3.09 ERA
    deGrom, injured
    Yamamoto, injured
    Are they prepared if the deGrom breaks down again? Or Carrasco or Walker don’t bounce back? Can they banked on Megill or Peterson to improve? Lucchesi will be lost much of the coming season recovering from Tommy John surgery. Yamamoto is a minor league depth piece, if that. Williams did nice but no one even mentions him.
    If they want to compete for the division then they need to obtain another #2 or #3 reliable starting pitcher. They also need more starting pitching depth in the minors. Pitching should be the primary concern when the lockout is over.

    • ChrisF

      Im in complete agreement. This team, and Alderson in particular, has the habit of counting on broken things as 100% back to normal or banking on best-case-scenarios (who could forget Lugo and Gman as the banked on “aces” moving to a full season of starts?). deGrom has not pitched in months, for reasons that never were made clear. What evidence do we have that has changed? none. Then we have Peterson, a sort-of major leaguer that is injured. Megill is not a major leaguer yet. Far as Im concerned, this team needs 2 starters still. I think a reunion with Colin McHugh makes sense.

      • Woodrow

        No DeGrom and it’s back to the drawing board.

    • JimmyP

      Yeah, agree with Metsense.

      (I feel like I’ve typed that a dozen times in the past.)

      I saw an article that asked the question, “How worried are you about Jake deGrom’s health?”

      Um . . . infinity?!

      If Jake isn’t able to go, we’re toast. And I don’t think he will ever approach what he did in the first half of 2021. That’s over.

      I think they need one more high-quality starter and a depth signing or two.

      And they need a real 4th outfielder or a guy who pushes Canha to the 4th role (good for 400-450 ABs).

      The pen needs work, too.

      And we need a 2B.

      MLB is going to see a wild scrum when they finally reach an agreement on the CBA — and a shortened Spring Training — and a late start to the season.

  • T.J.

    I would consider Scherzer a question mark as well given his age and how his 2021 season ended…not that I question the signing.

    I’m not sure they “need” to sign a #2 or #3…it wouldn’t hurt (excluding the pocket book), but I think I’d prefer the depth approach more. Adding several quality arms to the pen, including a guy like McHugh that can go multiple innings, piggyback, etc. could provide more flexibility than say a higher talent guy like Rodon that carries a higher injury risk. The key, though, is that they have to be quality additions, not fillers…I can take a lower cost “filler” #5 guy plus some really good pen arms…but the pitching certainly needs to be the priority.

  • ChrisF

    as mentioned in my reply to Metsense, I agree TJ.

  • Wobbit

    The threesome of McNeil, JDDavis, and Dom Smith cannot remain intact. At least one of them needs to go:

    JD is probably has the most value to trade because of his rather dependable bat. While the defense is weak, he can fit into the right hole and be a big plus for some enterprising GM out there.
    I see him in an AL uniform by Opening Day.

    Dom is probably the weakest of the three. He would need a lot of things to go right for him to rise in his productivity, and we know how that goes. Still, moving him for a nice bullpen piece or a viable prospect would not be a loss. I really don’t see him adding a lot to the team this year, though I’d love to be proven wrong.

    McNeil is probably the best piece of the three to keep. His potential to bounce back cannot be overlooked, and his defensive flexibility makes him a good utility piece. That said, none of us can really know how vehemently opposed his teammates (Lindor) might be regarding his “insurrections”… the new management just might want to cut their losses and start fresh, with no grudges to work around. McNeil might bring the most value back on a trade, for the same reasons we value him.

    As has been mentioned many times before on this site, no one expects slam dunks on these trades. Our old players may flourish elsewhere, and that’s ok. New players may tank on the Mets, and that’s part of the game, too. My approach is, take what isn’t working and make a change. Waiting for long shots to come home make us sure-fire losers.

    • Woodrow

      The old Change be Good philosophy.

    • JamesTOB

      As to those players opposed to keeping McNeil, I think that Lindor was the problem. I suspect that McNeil didn’t appreciate being bossed around by a newcomer with an attitude (if choking a teammate isn’t a sign of attitude, I don’t know what is). We should sign one of the two remaining top free agent shortstops and then trade Lindor. We could get better pieces for Lindor than anyone else on the roster. If we did sign Bryant for 3B (and later for RF once Baty is ready) we could trade McNeil, and slide Escobar over to 2B.

      • JimmyP

        Yeah, trading Lindor isn’t happening.

        While none of us knows what happened with Jeff, I’d bet some money that the temper tantrums get old.

        As always, hit .320 and people will put up with you. Hit .250 and it’s a different story.

        My view is simple: The Mets invested $341 million in Lindor. They need to go with that, support him, and his vision of “team,” and build around a keystone piece. Very clear to me that he needs the right fit at 2B for a host of reasons. Jeff’s not that guy — however, I do like him in the outfield.

        My guess, today: McNeil traded and Mets get back some pitching; Dom traded and Mets get back a prospect or two; Davis gone, too. Though I like JD’s bat and I can live with the glove given the huge outfield and (I hope!) 2B upgrades.

        • Steve_S.

          I think you’re right about McNeil and Smith being traded. With Cano a LH DH much of the time and Davis the RH DH.

      • Bob P

        I’ve been a huge McNeil supporter and really hope we keep him, but as far as trading Lindor, that’s not happening. With his contract and coming off 2 straight subpar offensive years his value is really low right now. He’s overpaid even if he gets back to his career norms so I don’t see him bringing back better pieces than anyone on the roster.

    • JimmyP

      I agree with every word of this.

  • Paulc

    The rotation at 3-5 is a concern. While Scherzer was a great signing, the Mets need to sign two more SP. Megill and Peterson could be serviceable #5’s, but the Mets should upgrade both to start Walker at 5. Carrasco appears to be too depleted by age/injury to expect many quality innings. Carlos Rodon and Michael Pineda appear to be the best available free agent SP. If the Mets can sign both, then that’s a good rotation of deGrom, Scherzer, Rodon, Pineda, and Walker. Signing only one leaves Megill at 5 while leaving a lot of risk in the likely scenario if someone gets injured. Failing to sign 2 SP, then an injury leaves both Megill and Peterson starting games. Not a way to win the pennant. The window is narrow, the time is now.

  • Wobbit

    If the Mets can get Rondon, then Taijuan Walker becomes the best #4 in the league. Unless he gets physically hurt, he could chew up innings and be a consistent force. Last year he was just asked to do too much.

    McNeil is a quiet little prima dona… he often swings at the first pitch, even when it is out of the zone, and then slams his helmet down after a weak three-hopper to second… note to Jeff, stop doing things that make you so mad… adjust!

  • Mr_Math

    “And I don’t think he will ever approach what he did in the first half of 2021. That’s over.”

    My disappointment with this here blog continues to grow, as everyone here seems in complete agreement on issues that are completely subjective, and state their conclusions as if irrefutable fact. I hope that it doesn’t surprise anyone here that my standard for meanings of words like “proof” and “fact” are considerably more stringent.

    One issue that everyone seems to be in agreement on is that JdG is fragile, and will never come close to repeating last year’s results, even though I have repeatedly asked for anyone here to provide well-sourced information to back their assessment of JdG’s fragility, or even his diagnosis/prognosis. So I’ve decide to repost a comment I made elsewhere when some YouTube “expert” proclaimed JdG as 7th best MLB player heading into 2022, which I will provide on my next post because it, largely, addresses directly the issues I have raised in the first sentence of this here paragraph

    The other issue I have with commentary here is the universal agreement that Buck is the greatest thing since sliced bread
    In contrast, I view him as the manager who, during the wildcard game of 10/4/16, foolishly murdered the Orioles’ chance to continue in the postseason by not using the best reliever in the AL, who had not been charged with an earned run since May and who, in 2016, had given up only 1 HR albeit in only 67 IPs

    I’d say that the best policy is to stick with the numbers, even though I am, by no means, a proven expert in the mathematical science typically known as probability and statistics. Still, I much prefer it over subjectivity under the guise of… well, I don’t know what to call it

    • JimmyP

      “Mr. Math.”

      That’s funny.

      I don’t know what you are disagreeing with, but since you clipped my comment — obviously an opinion, beginning with “I think” and forecasting the future — no amount of past statistics refutes a point of view.

      Jake was historically great in 2021. An unreal season, hitting 101 mph — and suffering a series of arm setbacks that eventually shut him down.

      My opinion is that he’s not going to repeat those heights ever again. He doesn’t have to in order still be great.

      I remember when Bob Gibson said that Gooden wasn’t likely to ever repeat his 1985 season. It was outrageous. He was only, what?, 22 years old.

      But, lo, Gibson was right.

      It is a rare & wonderful thing when everything clicks into place perfectly. That kind of “touched by the hand of God” season is awfully hard to repeat.

      We’ll have to wait and see, Mr. Math!

    • T.J.

      Mr. Math,
      Alas, two questions for the contrarian –
      1. Given your assessment on Jake’s projected contribution for 2022, what more do you feel the Mets need to do with regards to starting pitching?
      2. Who was your choice for 2022 Met manager, and what was your basis in coming to that conclusion?

  • Mr_Math

    Since 2018, JdG is #1, period, because his numbers are sooooo much better than his peers (that is, other starting pitchers)
    Sorry Soto, Acuna, Ohtani and yes, even the incredible Trout.
    Let’s examine numerical f a c t s, not f e e l i n g s.

    From 2018-2021, JdG has pitched 581 innings. I found only six other pitchers with more IP those 4 years, ranging from 639.2 to 667:
    Cole, Nola, Wheeler, Greinke, Berrios, and Scherzer, in order

    Are there others? Maybe, but I don’t care because I severely doubt any others would rank in the following category.
    Let’s look at adjusted ERA+
    Of the six above, four of them rate from 118 to 126 in adjusted ERA+
    The two standouts are Mad Max and Cole at 156 and 153

    And what about JdG?

    205!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

    Read that again
    So, Mad Max, second best, ranks 56% better than average in adjusted ERA+
    And JdG ranks 105% better than average in adjusted ERA+
    GTFOH that anyone rates above JdG from 2018 to 2021
    Not even Trout

    BTW, because of injury, JdG pitched about half a season in 2021, that is, 15 starts and 92 innings.
    Double those to 30 starts and 184 IP, totally reasonable, and JdG would have 677 IP from 2018 to 2021, which would rank higher than the six above

    (Note: Thus, I have demonstrated that, prior to his 2021 injury, he was, from 2018 to 2021, the most durable SP in all of MLB, as well as the best by far)

    Final thought: Calculating adjusted ERA+ is difficult, so I can’t answer my last question, that is
    If, in 2021, JdG had pitched those 184 innings while maintaining his 1.08 ERA, what would his adjusted ERA+ from 2018 to 2021 be?

    However, I can calculate his ERA from 2018 to 2021 if, in 2021, he had pitched 184 innings and given up 22 runs (double his actual 2021 totals)

    From 2018 to 2021, JdG (actually) pitched 581 innings allowing 125 ERs for an ERA of 1.94
    Adding 92 innings and 11 runs for 2021 would yield 677 IP and 136 ERs

    For which I calculate his ERA from 2018 to 2021 to be

    1.81

    Final Final thought(s)
    In 92 IP for 2021, JdG’s adjusted ERA+ was

    373

    That’s sick.

    And, if he had pitched those extra 92 innings and given up 11 earned runs as postulated above
    He would have surpassed Bob Gibson’s 1.12 ERA (during the deadball era of 1968)
    For the best single-season ERA of the modern era: 1.08

    Note: in Gibson’s ERA record-setting season of 1968, his adjusted ERA+ was

    258

    Thus, in 2021, JdG was heading for the

    greatest
    single
    season
    ever
    for
    a
    starting
    pitcher
    by
    far

    (Note: the end of the previous sentence was originally in all caps)

  • Mr_Math

    Note: Since 1916, the result most comparable to what JdG was heading for in 2021 was Pedro Martinez in 1999 (I believe) who achieved an adjusted ERA+ of 291.

    Next were two seasons by Greg Maddux, 1994-1995 I think, when he achieved adjusted ERA+s in the 260 to 270 range

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