When Spring Training started, the Mets had an issue at DH. One of the first public decisions Buck Showalter made was announcing that Jeff McNeil was his starter at second base. This was a wise move on his part. But since the club opted against releasing Robinson Cano, it meant there were three people who were now vying for the DH spot. Cano joined J.D. Davis and Dominic Smith in the battle for the new position.
And if that wasn’t crowded enough, Showalter utilized the DH as a rest spot, giving games there early in the season to Eduardo Escobar and Francisco Lindor. Pete Alonso played there, too, but Smith played first base in those games. The result was sporadic playing time for Cano, Davis and Smith and rotten results for all three players.
The Mets finally cut Cano but continued to split playing time between Davis and Smith. Neither one of them thrived in part-time play. From May 2, when they cut Cano, to May 30, when they finally picked one for the DH slot, Davis had 58 PA and a .607 OPS while Smith had 53 PA and a .443 OPS. It’s not often that a .607 OPS wins you more playing time, but that’s what happened for Davis, as the Mets sent Smith to the minors.
From 5/31 to 6/20, the Mets played 19 games and Davis played in 18 of those. His numbers look good in that span, as he posted a .304/.375/.393 line in 64 PA. But things weren’t as rosy as they seemed. Davis needed a .444 BABIP to put up a .768 OPS. He wasn’t hitting for a ton of power and strikeouts were an issue, too. An .089 ISO in a hot streak isn’t going to cut it for a full-time DH. And a 31.3 K% wasn’t helping the cause any, either.
Additionally, things were getting worse for Davis. Since June 15, he’s 3-20 with 11 Ks. The word is definitely out that he can’t hit high pitches. And while his exit velocities have been very good, they haven’t produced many XBH. At the end of the day, 100 mph singles aren’t enough to make up for striking out at a rate that would make Dave Kingman blush.
While Davis got consistent playing time in the majors, Smith was doing the same at Triple-A. He wasn’t tearing the cover off the ball by any means. But he put up a .785 OPS, which was good for a 112 wRC+, or essentially what Nick Plummer (113) had done at the same level. Smith was recalled to the majors on the day the club needed to cut to 13 pitchers.
Smith didn’t make it to the ballpark until the eighth inning. The following day he pinch-hit and got a single and yesterday he was in the starting lineup, where he hit a double in four trips to the plate.
So, where does that leave the Mets?
Davis got a three-week audition to take over the DH spot and while his surface numbers looked good, they were produced with an unsustainable BABIP and no power. Plus, everything was trending in the wrong direction. Now it’s time to give Smith that same three-week shot at regular playing time, to see if he can give the club a power bat in the DH slot.
In a weird dichotomy, Smith is very popular with his teammates, who were shown in the dugout giving him hugs when he arrived back after his recall. Yet, he’s not very popular at all with large portions of the fan base. Hey, that’s what putting up an 83 OPS+ in 2021 and a 65 mark this year will get you from the people who live and die with the team.
Is a three-week audition enough of a showcase for Smith? Perhaps not but beggars can’t be choosers. The Mets need production from the DH spot now and if Smith doesn’t show them something immediately, then they’ll have to make a move to get some hitting from elsewhere. The Mets are a win-now team and when you’re in the thick of a playoff push, you can’t give a huge amount of ABs to a guy not producing, regardless of how popular he may be with his teammates.
The best-case scenario is that Smith hits like he did in 2019-20, providing the club with a power bat to team with Alonso. But the question is: What will the Mets do if Smith continues hitting like he has in 2021-22? We’ll get to see if the club believes that either Francisco Alvarez or Mark Vientos are ready for prime time. Otherwise, they’ll have to go outside the organization to bring in a bat.
As a guy that lives and dies on BABIP, the present .269 puts Dom in a bad place for any sort of significant role on the team. As you say, JD is riding a BABIP high, but lets take a look at their comparative records. Dom is up and down with BABIP, indicating the 2019 and 2020 years are not his base line. But JD, the results are different. He is consistently a better hitter maintaining a high BAPIP. My money is more on JD. This is not to say Dom cant do it, but he may really need a change of scenery to bring it out. He is no way displacing Pete at 1B.
Smith
year/BABIP/OPS+
2018/.297/85
2019/.320/132
2020/.368/168
2021/.298/83
2022/.269/65
AVG BABIP: .299
Davis
2018/.233/32
2019/.355/137
2020/.318/111
2021/.426/125
2022/.360/96
AVG BABIP: .342
It could be that Dom turns into Justin Turner or Daniel Murphy elsewhere under a different clubhouse and coaching structure. That would be awesome…but it does not look like its gonna happen in Queens.
Chris, last night I watched Rafael Montero close out the Yankees for Houston. Earlier, I watched Chris Flexen take on the Angels. You mention Turner and Murphy…
It has become too convenient to say “we can’t fix them” and let talented players go somewhere else. The Mets need to figure out how to get the best out of their players. I dont want excuses, I want results. If tired of giving the organization a pass on development. The Yankees can take Matt Carpenter and make him reborn and then some. They find Joe Trevinos and Urshellas that become great for them with the bat. I want results.
I can’t think of a single player that was on another’s trash heap that the Mets took in and made him a productive bat.
Davis had an opportunity but didn’t seize it and now is trending backwards. Smith should be afforded the same opportunity of three weeks. If he fails again there will be two weeks until the trade deadline for the Mets solve this problem outside the organization. Alvarez should not be called up until September when the roster expands. Vientos, with his high strikeout and unreliable contract rate, isn’t the immediate fix either. Smith is the best solution but only if he hits.
Mark Vientos might do best splitting time with a left-handed slugger as he has a history of a rough adjustment period and much much better numbers against lefty pitching. (He’s got a .314/.368/.765 vs left and a .227/.333/.387 vs right.) He also is not patient and will have ugly K/BB numbers.
Francisco Alvarez should either come up to be a part time catcher or remain in AA/AAA to learn the position. Mets can deal with Davis and Smith struggling at DH a little if they are getting a hitter in the catching position. All this said, the Mets could trade for Wilson Contreras and keep Alvarez in development.
Personally, I like Smith and Davis and am rooting for either to succeed.
I’m warming to the idea of calling up Vientos instead of paying the freight to get a bat on the open market. For me, Plan A is still to give Dom a shot but Plan B would be Vientos.
Cron,Bell,Cooper…???
Who are you trading?
Brian, I love your turn of phrase here: “At the end of the day, 100 mph singles aren’t enough to make up for striking out at a rate that would make Dave Kingman blush.”. Thanks for that.
I like the idea of trading Smith even though his value seems low. Does anyone know which teams are hurting at 1B? I could see a team taking a shot at Smith, betting that regular playing time will lift his numbers (seems like a fair assumption.). What teams need a 1B?
Thanks for the kind words! I enjoyed that one, too. And Davis was 0-3 with two K’s in today’s game, too.