My 2012 Hall of Fame ballot

While this is a mythical ballot, I still play by the rules of the real Hall of Fame in Cooperstown. Last year, there were 12 people I wanted to elect into the Hall of Fame. Two of those got elected and one – Kevin Brown – fell off the ballot. With no new players making my personal cut, here I present the nine players who deserve induction.

Jeff Bagwell – Last year, voters took a wait-and-see approach with Bagwell so while having slam dunk credentials he’s back for his second year on the ballot. In 15 years in the majors, Bagwell had a lifetime .948 OPS, which translates into a career 149 OPS+. The only reason not to vote for Bagwell is if you think he did steroids and you are a moral crusader against them. But there’s been no failed drug test and no accusations from Canseco or anyone else.

Let’s start with his monster 1994 season, when he won the MVP, had a 213 OPS+ and posted 300 total bases in 110 games. Then add in five more seasons with an OPS+ of 150 or greater. Seven times he finished in the top 10 in the league in home runs and his 449 homers ranks 34th on the all-time list. Seven seasons he had 100 or more walks and he ranks 27th all-time in the category.

He also has top 100 finishes lifetime in OBP (40th), slugging (35th), OPS (21st), runs scored (62nd), total bases (66th), doubles (60th), RBIs (45th), hit by pitch (39th) and times on base (55th). Bagwell also has a Gold Glove Award to his credit. It’s hard to imagine what more a player could do for his Hall of Fame resume.

Barry Larkin – Injuries kept Barry Larkin from putting up an even stronger Hall of Fame case but what he did is plenty good enough to earn him a ticket to Cooperstown. A nine-time Silver Slugger Award winner, a three-time Gold Glove Award recipient and the winner of the 1995 National League MVP Award, Larkin did it all on the field and was hands down the best SS in the National League for a decade or more.

In 17 games in the post-season, Larkin posted a .338/.397/.465 line. In the 1990 World Series, he batted .353 and had a .950 OPS as he helped the Reds to a shocking win over the A’s. Unlike Alomar, Larkin played his entire career with one team and should pick up bonus points for his loyalty to the Reds organization.

Edgar Martinez – Previously I did not vote for Martinez but given more time to examine his case, I think that was a mistake. Martinez is hurt because his career got off to a late start, as he spent three years in Triple-A. Then Martinez suffered some injuries which forced him to become a full-time designated hitter. Martinez did not move because he was a poor fielder. Instead, he moved to keep him healthy. He deserves to be docked for not playing in the field. But I think I was penalizing him too much.

Martinez’ Hall of Fame case rests on his hitting and I think it’s strong enough to deserve induction. Here is his seven-year peak by OPS+

185, 166, 165, 164, 160, 158, 157

That is tremendous hitting, seven years worth of stats that would look at home in Albert Pujols‘ career. But let’s compare him to Hall of Famer Wade Boggs, who was a first-ballot pick. Here are their stats for their age 27-40 seasons

Boggs – 8,614 PA, 1,213 R, 2,391 H, 100 HR, 812 RBIs, .326/.415/.444 131 OPS+
Edgar – 7,843 PA, 1,148 R, 2,053 H, 295 HR, 1,168 RBIs, .317/.426/.531 153 OPS+

That’s 14 years where he averaged a 153 OPS+. He stands toe-to-toe with Boggs, although to be fair Boggs had 2.5 years before this stretch where he also was a great hitter. Boggs also made himself into a Gold Glove winner at third base.

Boggs was better because of his longer track record, was more durable and the ability to play the field. But it does not seem right that Boggs is a first-ballot pick and Martinez is on the outside. I think Martinez is Hall of Fame worthy.

Fred McGriff – Most people think McGriff does not have enough of a Hall of Fame case. But those people are ignoring that many of McGriff’s best years came before the offensive explosion of 1993. While his yearly home run totals do not seem that impressive, from 1988-1992, he finished first twice, second, and fourth twice in homers. In that same period, he was first in OPS once, placed third three times and fourth the other year. He was one of the best hitters in the game over a five-year stretch.

He drew MVP votes in six straight years and eight seasons in all. Earlier I mentioned that I like a seven-year peak. Here’ how McGriff stacks up with Hall of Famer Eddie Murray in their seven best seasons in OPS+

Eddie – 158, 156, 156, 156, 156, 149, 140
Fred — 166, 166, 157, 157, 153, 147, 144

To put this in perspective, when Prince Fielder hit 46 HR and drove in 141 runs in 2009, he had a 166 OPS+. McGriff was every bit as good as Murray in his prime, probably a shade better. Yes, Murray has 3,000 hits and 500 HR but McGriff was hardly a piker in these categories with 2,490 hits and 493 HR. McGriff has both the peak and career value necessary for the Hall of Fame.

We have a huge number of first baseman now eligible and coming up in the next few years who put up very good numbers. Each voter and fan has to draw a line somewhere. I think McGriff did enough in his career to merit inclusion.

Mark McGwire –Admitting his steroid usage did not help McGwire at all with the Hall of Fame voters. In 2010, he drew 23.7 percent of the voters but last year that number dropped to 19.8 percent. So I think it’s fair to say that a few voters were giving him the benefit of the doubt but once they found out for sure, they instituted a penalty. On the flip side, we have roughly 20 percent of the electorate who are going to judge a player on his production and not play the role of moral police that they failed to do while the players were active.

The two most important stats for offense are on-base percentage and slugging. McGwire led the league in OBP twice and SLG four times. He was a 12-time All-Star, a Rookie of the Year, a Gold Glove Award winner and he’s 10th on the all-time home run list (583). McGwire is 8th all-time in Slugging (.588) and 12th in OPS+ (162). That’s a Hall of Famer, despite what revisionists might say.

Rafael Palmeiro – Last year Palmerio debuted with 11 percent of the vote, more than the 5 percent necessary to remain on the ballot. Everyone remembers his finger-waving performance in front of Congress, which was followed by a failed steroids test. Palmeiro has maintained his innocence and after what happened with McGwire, he is unlikely to change that tune as long as he is still on the ballot.

But Palmeiro does have both a solid peak and outstanding career totals. His seven best seasons by OPS+ are:

159, 155, 150, 146, 145, 144 and 141

Those are numbers that match perfectly with Hall of Famer Eddie Murray, who like Palmeiro also cleared 3,000 hits and 500 HR. And Palmeiro was a better fielder, with a defensive reputation so good that he famously won a Gold Glove Award in a year where he mostly played DH.

Tim Raines – I already laid out the case for Raines in this article. To summarize, Raines was neck and neck with Mike Schmidt as the best player in the National League from 1981-1987, was an above-average defender in left field who would have been a center fielder if not for the presence of Andre Dawson and one of the greatest leadoff hitters and base stealers of all time.

Alan Trammell – Most people saw Cal Ripken as a slam dunk Hall of Famer and Trammell as not being Hall worthy. Let’s compare them:

AVG/OBP/SLG
Ripken 276/.340/.447
Trammell 285/.352/.415

Trammell played 20 seasons and Ripken played 21 seasons. Trammell played in a more pitcher-dominated era, although their careers overlapped many years. Trammell won four Gold Gloves and Ripken won two. Trammell had 236 steals while Ripken had just 36 with 39 caught stealings. Trammell batted .333 with a .404 OBP and a .588 SLG in the playoffs and was a World Series MVP. Ripken batted .336 with a .411 OBP and a .455 SLG mark in the playoffs.

Now Ripken’s a slam dunk because of the streak but why does Trammell have to be on the outside? Ripken was more durable and had more power, but Trammell got on base better, was a better defensive player and was faster. I think Ripken’s durability made him a more valuable player, but the overall difference between the two was not that great. I don’t think the line for Hall shortstops should be drawn at Alan Trammell.

Ripken was the dominating shortstop of their era, but how does Trammell compare with another Hall of Fame shortstop – Ozzie Smith? Here they are as viewed by fWAR, which accounts for a player’s offensive and defensive numbers. Let’s compare Ozzie, Trammell and Ripken and their best 10 seasons:

Ripken – 11.1, 10.3, 8.8, 7.4, 6.5, 6.3, 5.9, 5.6, 5.1, 4.8 = 71.8
Smith – 6.9, 6.4, 6.0, 5.6, 5.4, 5.1, 5.0, 4.2, 4.1, 4.1 = 52.8
Tram – 7.9, 7.3, 6.5, 6.1, 5.9, 5.7, 4.7, 4.2, 3.9, 3.8 = 56.0

Ripken is clearly the best of the three, but Trammell is every bit as good as Smith, if not slightly better. Trammell’s durability problems limited him to seven big seasons but despite that he out-earns Smith over their 10 best seasons. I think he has both enough career peak and enough career length for the Hall.

Larry Walker – The first thing most people do when they hear Walker’s name is to dismiss him as merely a product of pre-humidor Coors Field. But is that fair to Walker? Shouldn’t we judge him based on what he actually did?
Let’s compare Walker to Jim Rice, another corner outfielder recently elected to the Hall of Fame. Both players played similar numbers of years and games in the majors and both played in good hitting ballparks. Here are their overall numbers:

JR – 9058 PA, 1,249 R, 2,452 H, 373 2B, 382 HR, .298/.352/.502 58 SB, 315 GDP
LW 8030 PA, 1,355 R, 2,160 H, 471 2B, 383 HR, .313/.400/.565 230 SB, 153 GDP

That’s not fair to Rice, as Walker played in a time when more runs were scored. So, let’s look at their top 10 years in OPS+, which will neutralize for ballpark and run environment.

JR – 157, 154, 147, 141, 136, 130, 127, 123, 122, 120
LW 178, 163, 160, 158, 151, 150, 142, 130, 130, 127

So, how can it be that Walker does better than Hall of Famer Rice in OPS+, which takes home ballpark into account? Because Rice had big, giant, humongous home/road splits that never got talked about in the mainstream media, ones nearly as big as Walker. Here are Rice and Walker’s home/road numbers:

HOME
JR – .320/.374/.546 with 208 HR (54%)
LW .348/.431/.637 with 215 HR (56%)

ROAD
JR – .277/.330/.459 with 174 HR
LW .278/.370/.495 with 168 HR

Coors in the pre-humidor days was a better offensive park than Fenway in Rice’s time, but not by all that much. In neutral road parks, Walker’s numbers dwarf those of Rice, to the tune of 76 points of OPS.

In reality, the edge is not that large due to offensive environments. In 1978, the AL scored 4.2 runs per game while the NL in 1997 scored 4.6 runs per game. But do you really think that less than half a run per game translates into 76 points of OPS? That’s the difference between David Wright and Ruben Tejada last year.

Let’s be exceptionally charitable and say that the run environment cancels out Walker’s road edge as a hitter, that the two are equals at the plate. Walker is still miles ahead because of his speed, because of his defense – Walker was a 7-time Gold Glove Award winner in right field while Rice was a below-average left fielder – and because he had half as many GDPs.

Finally, let’s use fWAR, which accounts for defense, too.

JR – 8.1, 6.6, 6.3, 5.9, 5.1, 4.3, 3.8, 3.1, 3.1, 3.0 = 49.3
LW – 9.4, 8.0, 5.8, 5.8, 5.2, 5.1, 5.0, 4.6, 4.5, 4.0 = 57.4

No matter if you prefer peak in three, five, seven or 10-year increments, Walker was simply a better player than Rice. Any sportswriter who voted for Rice absolutely has to vote for Walker if they are being honest with themselves. And any fan who dismisses Walker because of his home park really needs to take a deeper look at Walker’s adjusted stats.

*****

While I voted for nine players, I expect only one will make the Hall of Fame this year and that’s Larkin, who should get around 85% of the vote. Hall of Fame voting is about to become very complicated, as many great stars like Biggio, Bonds, Clemens, Lofton, Piazza, Schilling and Sosa appear for the first time in 2013. They will be followed in 2014 by Glavine, Maddux, Mussina and Thomas and in 2015 by Martinez, Johnson, Sheffield and Smoltz.