As I write this Opening Day is already underway. However, I have the MLB.tv DVR ready and I have yet to watch any of the action. So, here are my predictions for the 2010 New York Mets:
Josh Thole comes up before September to be the everyday catcher.
Daniel Murphy comes back to post an OPS of .825 or above.
Luis Castillo suffers very little or no falloff from 2009, again posting a wOBA of .330 or above.
David Wright tops 25 HR
Jose Reyes plays in 140 games
Jason Bay gets 110 RBIs
Carlos Beltran comes back by May 15th
Jeff Francoeur reaches 20 HR for the first time since 2006
Johan Santana makes the All-Star team
John Maine pitches over 175 IP
Mike Pelfrey gets sent to the bullpen
Jon Niese wins the second most games on the staff.
Oliver Perez has an ERA under 4.50
Francisco Rodriguez saves 40 games
Jenrry Mejia gets sent back to the minors and goes back to being a SP
What are your predictions for the 2010 season?
Those are some pretty optimistic predictions. I don’t really disagree with any of them, but when you read them all in a row like that it just seems awfully optimistic. Even though I think Wright hitting 25 HRs, Bay hitting 110 RBI and Johan making the All-Star team are almost locks, I would say the most likely prediction is Francoeur hitting 20 HR. He seemed completely revitalized by the change of scenery and could be a scary sixth batter when Beltran/Wright/Bay are in the lineup together.
These are some might optimistic expectations, and I’m a die-hard Mets fan. Do you really believe ALL of them will happen?
The only one that stands out immediately, and I disagree vehemently with, is your Pelfrey comments. Mike looked good two years ago and apparently went through the Verducci Effect. He has such promise, potential, build and stamina. I could see Maine going to the pen before Pelfrey, although I don’t think either will.
Thanks for the comments fellas!
I’m sure there are ones that are optimistic in the group but when looked at from an historical perspective, I think they make sense.
Barajas is terrible and Thole has hit over .300 the last two years in the minors.
Murphy has had one bad 162-AB stretch in the majors when he switched to first base but otherwise has posted an OPS in that range or above.
Since 2002, Castillo has had a wOBA ranging from .325-.343 in seven out of eight years. He has been remarkably consistent except for his injury-plagued 2008 season. He’s healthy, so there’s no reason to expect him to do significantly worse.
Wright has topped 25 HR in four of the last five years.
Reyes has played in 153 or more games in four of the last five years.
Bay has topped 100 RBIs in four of the last five years. 110 might be optimistic.
The latest news on Beltran points to May 7th as the earliest he could come back. May 15th may be a shade optimistic.
Francoeur had a ridiculously low HR/FB rate with the Braves last year. If he matches last year’s 9.6 percent rate with the Mets and has a normal (for him) FB%, he’ll be right around 20 HR.
Santana has made the All-Star team in four of the last five years.
Maine has only reached 175 IP once in his career, so this one is optimistic.
Pelfrey would have gotten sent to the bullpen last year if everyone else wasn’t injured. He was terrible in ST and he has only one pitch. They probably don’t have the depth to do it, but I think this is where he will wind up eventually.
Perez has had an ERA under 4.50 in two of the last three years.
Niese winning the second most games is at least as much a condemnation of the rest of the pitchers as it is anything positive about him.
Rodriguez has saved 40 games in four of the past five years.
Not many 20-year-old pitchers last an entire season in the majors. And if he gets sent down, there’s no reason to keep him as a reliever.
So, I count three optimistic predictions – Bay, Beltran and Maine. The rest of them I just want them to match what they’ve done in the recent past.
When you make 15 predictions, some of them are going to be wrong. But there’s not one here that I look at and want to take back.