Welcome to the second edition of the Mets360 projection series. After discussing Ike Davis last time out, this time we turn our attention to Jonathon Niese. Last time, I mentioned how none of us have a detailed projection system and that instead this is just how we feel the player is going to turn out. For the most part that’s still true but there is one slight modification this time around.
Friend of the site Eric Stashin, aka The Rotoprofessor, has graciously agreed to contribute to the project. Stashin makes projections for his site and has done so for years. If you play fantasy sports and are not familiar with his work – bookmark his site and visit there often.
With the trade of R.A. Dickey, Niese essentially becomes the ace of the staff, at least for 2013. Johan Santana will likely draw the Opening Day start but it is difficult to predict either the innings or the results for Santana to make him the actual ace. And while Niese probably will not grab the Opening Day assignment, it’s not out of the question he won’t pitch on the second day, either, if Terry Collins wants to split up the lefties in his rotation.
Anyone know the last time a team’s projected ace pitched third the first go-thru for a club? Perhaps there’s someone who was coming off an injury, but can you think of a healthy guy?
Regardless, here are our individual projections for Niese:
Since we did not forecast all of the individual numbers that go into ERA and WHIP, we are going to use median for those numbers and average for the counting numbers to come up with our Mets360 forecast. Here is what our group as a whole projects for Niese in 2013:
After back-to-back seasons of putting up stronger peripherals than results, Niese broke the trend last year. Nearly everyone sees him putting up an ERA in the threes, unlike the 4.30 ERA he posted over the 2010-11 seasons combined. Bryan Mcwilliam is the pessimist in the group, as he predicts fewer innings and a higher ERA for Niese than he’s had since becoming a full-time starter in 2010. It will be interesting to see if he can address his thoughts about this in the comments section.
Finally, let’s close with a table comparing the Mets360 numbers to those of two projection systems – Bill James and ZiPS.
The Bill James numbers are usually thought of as the most “optimistic” among the detailed projection systems. It’s hard not to notice that our projections are even more optimistic. To me, the interesting thing is that compared to James, our projections are extremely similar in IP, Ks and BB. Where they are more optimistic is in ERA and WHIP. Since the walks are similar, obviously we feel Niese is going to do better in the hits allowed category.
James forecasts that Niese will allow 202 hits in 190 IP for a H/9 mark of 9.6 for the year. Backing out from our other numbers, we are essentially predicting that Niese will allow 179 hits for an 8.5 H/9. ZiPS projects a 9.0 H/9 for Niese in 2013.
Check back Saturday for our next entry in this series.