Mets360 projection review: Shaun Marcum

Shaun MarcumThe next player in the Mets360 preseason projection review is Shaun Marcum. The original piece with the projections can be found here. As a group, the Mets360 staff projected the following line for Marcum:

IP – 160.2

ERA – 3.68

K – 125

BB – 47

HR – 17

Marcum was an example of what’s been a typical off-season acquisition for the Alderson-led Mets teams: a veteran looking to reestablish his value signed to an incentive-laden deal. Sometimes this type of deal works out for the Mets (like Chris Capuano in 2011) and sometimes it doesn’t (like Marcum in 2013). Marcum was signed to fill the void in the rotation left by the trade of R.A. Dickey and came as an injury risk. It didn’t work out for either side, as his season was cut short in July when he underwent surgery to correct numbness in his pitching hand. With that in mind, let’s see how the Mets360 staff did on each of their projections versus Marcum’s actual results:

IP – 78.1
Best – Joura (115)
Worst – Mcwilliam (190)

ERA – 5.29
Best – Joura (4.35)
Worst – Walendin (3.43)

K – 60
Best – Joura (89)
Worst – Mcwilliam (153)

BB – 21
Best – Joura (38)
Worst – Gray (55)

HR – 7
Best – Joura (13)
Worst – Koehler (22)

Note that many of the counting statistics, like strikeouts and walks, projected above were off because Marcum did not finish the entire season with the Mets. That being said, Brian Joura ran away with this one. His lower projected counting statistics fell in line with his prediction of Marcum not pitching a complete season with the Mets. His projected line for Marcum was as follows:

IP – 115, ERA – 4.35, K – 89, BB – 38, HR – 13

The big name projection systems were wrong as well, though they also didn’t appear to account for Marcum going down with an injury when he did.

It wasn’t a particularly good season for Marcum. The story throughout much of it was that he was better than his numbers suggested, though. Indeed, his 3.64 FIP indicated that he was performing better than his terrible ERA suggested. Interestingly, throughout Marcum’s career he did the opposite and outperformed his FIP each season. Even so, he was only under contract with the Mets through 2013 and they released him in late July.

With Matt Harvey officially out for most, if not all, of 2014 the Mets will again need to add some veteran depth to the rotation this off-season. However, even if Marcum were ready to pitch to start the 2014 season it seems doubtful the Mets would want him back. Marcum made some negative remarks about the SNY broadcast booth via Twitter in mid-September that stirred up a mini-controversy. It won’t be rehashed here, but out of it came the suggestion by ESPN New York that Marcum was not well-liked and at this point a Mets-Marcum reunion seems unlikely.

10 comments for “Mets360 projection review: Shaun Marcum

  1. October 13, 2013 at 6:52 pm

    Its really one of the only mess ups that Alderson had this season for a free-agent signing.

    • October 13, 2013 at 10:00 pm

      Rick Ankiel, Aaron Laffey, Brandon Lyon and Omar Quintanilla beg to differ.

      • Name
        October 13, 2013 at 11:02 pm

        Not sure how Laffey and Q can be thought as of Free-Agent Bust as they were both signed on minor league deals. You can question TC/Sandy on how they were used though.

        • October 13, 2013 at 11:51 pm

          From B-R

          Quintanilla: January 5, 2013: Signed as a Free Agent with the New York Mets.
          Laffey: December 27, 2012: Signed as a Free Agent with the New York Mets.

          • Jerseymet
            October 14, 2013 at 11:50 am

            Laffey was a lottery ticket that did not pay off. Q was cheep and played a lot of innings; not great quality but it was a good value. Marcum was a bust. At 4 million for half a season an expensive gamble. He was given a chance to revive his career here. He failed. He was classless in his exit.

          • Name
            October 14, 2013 at 5:29 pm

            Yes, they were signed as “Free Agents”, but to non-guaranteed and no-commitment minor league deals mainly as depth for the minors. They were both pushed into roles that weren’t ideally suited for them and pretty much performed how we expected them to.
            Grouping them with Marcum or Lyon ,who received major league deals and was expected to contribute on the big-league team, is not right.

            • October 14, 2013 at 6:11 pm

              LaTroy Hawkins signed a minor league deal and made more money than Brandon Lyon.

  2. steevy
    October 14, 2013 at 8:29 pm

    What did Marcum say about the broadcasters?I missed that somehow.

  3. Robby
    October 18, 2013 at 11:18 am

    I actually liked this signing. Guy had success and was coming off an injury so worth a shot. Didn’t realize he would be so awful.

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