The Mets enter tonight’s play sporting a 14-11 record. Being over .500 “this late” wasn’t something most people were betting on, for sure, but it’s also a matter of whom they’ve beaten as much the raw number of Ws. If someone had told you in late March that the Mets would be guaranteed a winning April, you might lightly scoff, or nod sagely. If someone had told you this and predicted that this would include series wins over Cincinnati, Atlanta and St. Louis – the last being of the three-of-four variety – you might call for a straitjacket.
At the end of spring training, folks in the MSM got around to noticing that the Mets’ schedule for most of April was fairly unfair. After opening against the pre-season NL East Champion Washington Nationals, the Mets would host the Reds for three games, then go on a “brutal” nine-game road trip to visit the Braves – supposedly the two-seed in the division. They’d follow that up by flying cross-country to get their first taste of interleague action, facing the big, bad Anaheim Angels of Mike Trout, Albert Pujols and yes, Collin Cowgill. Then they’d have to swing down to seeming NL West contender Arizona. It wouldn’t get any better once they got back to New York, having to face the Braves again for the Citi Field portion of the home-and-home. Even in print, one could hear the head-shaking: the Mets’ season would be done before it had barely gotten started. The doomsayers – your intrepid columnist included – figured on a 4-5 road trip…at best.
As we all know by now, the doomsayers figured incorrectly. The Mets’ 6-3 record on that trip was certainly a stunner. And yes, they did drop the series to Atlanta on their return to New York, but they followed that up by stifling the Cardinals and taking a matter-of-fact series against last place Miami. Twenty-five games into a season is the earliest time the phrase “small sample size” loses some of its bite. After twenty-five games, rate stats begin to take on meaning. According to no less an authority than the estimable Jonah Keri of the Grantland website, a wild card contender can almost be predicted, even while it’s still cold out:
We’ve reached the point of the season when we can no longer ignore or minimize results. With 22 of 30 teams at least 25 games deep, we now have a large enough sample size to get a read on how things might unfold from here … all the way to the playoffs.
According to the Elias Sports Bureau, the average record for an eventual playoff team during the wild-card era has been 14-11 through the season’s first 25 games. Meanwhile, 25 percent of the teams that sat below .500 through 25 games went on to make the playoffs. That’s actually a surprisingly high number, considering less than 30 percent of teams made the postseason during the one-wild-card days. Still, it’s low enough to tell us that most of the teams off to slow starts have already dug holes that will prove too deep.
Now, go reread the first sentence of this piece.
This is not to say that we can all now gear up for October baseball at Citi Field. We are Mets fans, after all; we know there’s still a whole lotta bad that can happen over the course of a summer. Met fans can never take anything for granted, even the stout starting pitching we currently enjoy. Just take a look at Jenrry Mejia’s game the other night, the Mets’ lone loss to the Marlins. Mejia was cruising, putting on another in a string of electrifying performances…for five innings. In the sixth, his first three tosses were smacked all over the Citi yard and a 5-1 lead was cut to 5-3 and a walk and a couple of hits later, that lead was gone. Such is the nature of the game – especially the way the Mets play it – that fortunes can shift just that quickly. No Met fan should harbor any illusions: from over here, this still looks to be no better than a .500 team.
Meanwhile, the attitudes in the room seem to be shifting. The show of solidarity with Bartolo Colon isn’t something that’s been seen in that clubhouse in years. David Wright has been quoted as saying the team now goes out there expecting to win, instead of merely hoping to. It’s been a good six years since that kind of demeanor has been seen, too.
There may be something good percolating here. Maybe.
Follow me on Twitter @CharlieHangley.
Why do you think we haven’t seen it?
Is it that there hasn’t been a need for it before now? Is it that negative influences were removed from the team? Is it David Wright (or whoever) finally stepping up in this department?
Just curious.
I do think Wright has a lot to do with it. I have a friend who is somewhat an insider, and he’s told me that these guys follow the Captain to the ends of the Earth.
I was also thinking about the Billy Wagner “[bleep]in’ shocker” comments from ages ago which only highlighted the rift among that group — a rift which had seemingly gone unhealed until recently.
Sorry Charlie, Ive watched year after year of this. If today was August 29th, I’d be a believer. You cant be the basically worst offensive team in the game and gamble that through September.
Ahh, but I believe they won’t be. Let’s let Granderson and C Young start hitting before we brand them as worst.
Im not branding them as the worst. They are the worst. Look, Im in love with this as much as any Mets fan, but Ive lived through enough Septembers to know that even if we were 25-0 in April it makes no difference.
you are 100% correct, they are the worst offense in the NL.
Of course, it’s fair to say any reversion to the mean implies upside. Remember, 25% of the positional ABs have considerably under performed YTD, and you could make a case for nearly 40% (Wright and Granderson, possibly Chris Young).
That’s a considerable swing up. I am concerned that a swing through Colorado will merely mask the problems at bat, but by the end of May we’ll know well enough what is in store.
I’d be surprised if they win more than 80.
This team can pitch and play defense. The Mets have been winning against a tough schedule of good teams and a west coast trip in April. The pitching should improve as the Mets jettison some journeymen (like Valverde) in the bullpen and promote some good young arms like deGrom, Montero and Syndegaard. The team should also have some flexibility this summer to trade some pitching to upgrade the offense. I believe the Mets will be significantly better in August to make a run at a wild card.
any non-losing west coast trip seems like a huge win. cautiously optimistic
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I had projected a difficult two month opening part of the season. May didn’t project to be as bad as April but we still have Miami in Florida, the Yankees, The Dodgers, and Pittsburgh mixed in with games against the Diamondbacks, the Phillies and the Rockies. We get through that in decent fashion, then we get the other player from Pitt, the draft, and then the minor league call-ups. June could be a great month.
Good pitching and defense will keep you in ball games. Someone is going to start hitting eventually. The bullpen is a shambles but Ricco stated in the Post that deGrom and Montero are going to get some bullpen innings at Las Vegas soon. Mix in Black, Carreno and Thornton on the short side and there are enough arms to maybe improve the bullpen.
Last night in the Chat, I advocated trying to pry SS Chris Taylor from Seatle. Brian produced a scouting report that indicated good glove and speed. This is from Fangraphs http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/2014-top-10-prospects-seattle-mariners/
15-11 and looking like a competitive but blemished team. A very surprising start.
Defense (and typically, pitching) never really has a slump. Hitting reverts to a mean.
But if you can get to the ball, and if you can throw the ball accurately, you generally do that all year long.
I’m not terribly interested in a SS that is likely not going to help you absolutely immediately. Ask Tampa Bay about trading pitching for young SSs or for that matter, Arizona. Bring up Starlin Castro, or Stephen Drew, or Nick Franklin, or somebody with a history in the major leagues, I’m all ears.
“15-11 and looking like a competitive but blemished team.” This is probably the most accurate way to describe the Mets. They are pitching wonderfully, and the defense has been surprisingly solid. If those stick around, offense will come. TDA is starting to hit, and soon SS will have an upgrade of some sort of another. The bullpen won’t be held together with glue and toothpicks for too much longer either.