Amongst Mets fans, there is often just two views of first baseman Lucas Duda. There is one side of the fanbase that vehemently support Duda, and are infatuated with his natural power. The other side is as against him as the other side is for him, and believe that he should be in the American League. I have always found myself in between these two view points, of course supporting Duda while also questioning his consistency. The power has always been there for the slugger, once raking 57 home runs in a two year span. To better understand his inconsistency at the plate though, we will take a look at his last complete season, 2015.
In 2015, Duda slugged 27 home runs, drove in 73 RBIs, and finished with a slash line of .244/.352/.486. 27 home runs is a nice total, but the way he achieved it is odd. Speaking from strictly a mathematical point of view, Duda should have hit approximately four home runs each month. Instead, he alternated months of high home run totals (eight in July) and low home run totals (one in June). While his power numbers were up and down monthly, his batting average was mostly consistent through the year, as well as his slugging percentage. Based on raw numbers alone, it appeared as if Duda had a productive year.
One number that may concern some is the RBI total. How did he manage to only drive in 73 runners while hitting 27 home runs? Well, Duda was abysmal with runners on. With runners in scoring position, Duda only batted .212. Add two outs to the situation, and the average slides down to .204 . In fact, Duda hit only eight of his home runs with runners on base. He hit 19 solo home runs, which contributed mightily to his total of 73 RBIs. While the Mets are no stranger to poor performance with runners in scoring position(See Granderson, Curtis), this was nearly a twenty RBI drop from 2014, when he drove in 92 runs with 30 home runs. So is Duda worth the inconsistent power and poor performance with runners in scoring position?
In my opinion, he is worth the little issues. Duda is a solid slugger that can mash. When healthy, he will provide a constant power threat to any opposing pitcher. While some may argue that he is weaker against left-handed pitchers, he actually hit southpaws stronger than right-handed pitchers in 2015. And although he hits for power differently every month, he is still that rake at any given moment. He is the best option for the Mets currently at first base. As of right now, Duda is set to make $6.725 million, which is a great price for a player who will potentially hit 30 home runs. The Mets only other valid in-house option is prospect Dominic Smith, who hit .302 in Double-A Binghamton last season. There would be a significant drop in home run production, as Smith hit only two last season. On the free agent market, Mark Trumbo is a slugger who gains a lot of attention. Although he hit 47 home runs last season, the Mets simply don’t have the money to import the slugger. So for now, it is my opinion that the Mets are perfectly fine with Duda at first base in 2017, as long as he remains healthy.
To me, he’s another player who will be done in by arbitration.
His salary will soon exceed his value.
I like Duda, mostly. I think he tries very hard on a consistent basis. But I don’t like him at a big contract.
He’s set for 2017 and he has a great opportunity to change minds with his play on the field.
One point: Baseball is a game of streaks. In fact, studies show that 92.6% of players are streaky. Fans are forever complaining about the streakiness of specific players and that sound you hear is my eyes rolling in my head. It’s a streaky sport! That’s how it goes. Guys get hot, guys get cold. The “steady” player, month to month, is largely a myth.
That’s why it is such utter nonsense when people talk about, say, Curtis Granderson and mathematically eliminate two months of the season to demonstrate how great he was. Well, no, it’s doesn’t work like that. You have to accept the whole man. The cherry-picking of stats is so frustrating because it employs factual data to tell false narratives.
Or look at one month of Matt den Dekker: He’s a rising star!
Anyway, sorry, I digress.
Duda will be the Mets 1B in 2017. I’m fine with that. The rest is up to him. Tens of millions of dollars will swing on his performance. He could put himself in a great position as a free agent . . . or maybe he’s just another Brewer.
Thanks for the pot shots!
Why do you feel this need to talk about things and players I’ve advocated for in an article not written by me and not about either of the two players that you bring up out of left field? You’re so eager to criticize me that I’m not sure if I should be concerned or flattered.
I think Smith hit 14 HRs last season.
Lets all get along now..
Anyway, two things come to play as far as Duda’s future.
1. How well he does in 2017 with the Mets and can he stay healthy?
2. How well or poorly Smith does at Vegas. If he gets a big jump in power, he will probably be the 1B in 2018. If he falls flat, he is trade bait and Duda is the 1B in 2018 if he performs.
And yes, I think Smith had 14 hrs last year, not 2. But look at the rbi’s.
maybe something like this will help… maybe adaptive to Bloggers?
http://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2015/04/23/401720041/couples-counseling-catches-on-with-tech-co-founders
His career 792 OPS avg and 26 home runs does not make him an elite first baseman but more in the second tier of NL first baseman. His expected 6.75 M arb salary is appealing and affordable. In 2015 he proved that he can hit LHP but I would platoon him with Flores because of the way Flores hits LHP. Duda will be a free agent in 2018 and I would be surprised if the Mets were to sign him to a multi year contract. If Smith comes on strong at AAA then I would not be surprised to see Duda traded at the trade deadline. I appreciate and like Duda and he is more than “worth” his little issues in 2017.
That he Duda hit decently against lefties in 2015 is kind of an outlier. In 2016 his slash line against lefties: .133/.188/.267. Ouch! Against right-handers: .252/.329/.447.
As I and another writer in a separate article, and Metsense above said, the most productive use of Duda might be a platonn with Wilmer Flores.
Dominic Smith hit 14 HR at AA Binghamton. I think you were looking at wrong numbers. I. The thin air at Vegas, don’t be shocked if Smith hits 25 HR this year. But they are much different players. Duda is the low-average, mediocre fielding slugging type while Smith is more in the Keith Hernandez/John Olerud 15-20 HR, high average, Gold Glove fielding mode.
Yes, I was mistaken on the home run statistic. Duda actually plays a respectable first base though, as he posted a .997 fielding percentage in 2015, good enough for second in the National League.
I am not a big Duda fan, but I can live with him for one more year. For a low average hitter, his OBP isn’t that bad.
Let’s see how Dom Smith does this year at AAA. Maybe they can bring him up early if he is playing well.
When comparing Duda’s 2014 to his 2015, we must note the amount of games played: 153 in 2014 and 135 in 2015. Those 18 games would have gotten him into the 80’s at least in RBIs and maybe closer to the 30 HRs he had in 2014.
His stat lines:
2014: .253/.349/.481, ISO .228, BABIP .283, RC+ 135, BB% 11.6, K% 22.7
2015: .244/.352/.486, ISO .242, BABIP .285, RC+ 132, BB% 11.9, K% 24.9
What’s the difference? The guy was the same hitter. If he can put up this stat line in 2017, I feel confident that he can be a borderline all-star and could get a 3/50 deal next offseason.
I agree completely.
As Name has pointed out more than once, Duda’s rate stats from 2014-2015 are virtually identical to Yoenis Cespedes’ from 2015-2016. The big question for Duda is if he’s completely recovered from his injury and right now no one knows the answer to that.
The offense looks pretty good with ’14-’15 Duda in the middle of the order.
With Encarnacion only getting 3/60, Trumbo and Bautista failing to generate much interest into January… you really think Duda can get 3/50 next year? It seems to me that the market is really souring on big, lumbering power bats (which is a good thing in my opinion) Napoli’s got some interest, but he’s benefiting from WS exposure (and his season last year wasn’t that special to be honest)
His best comp at this point might actually be Brandon Moss, who will be closest in age and production when Duda hits FA, and we’ve heard even less chatter on him.
The days of Howard-type players making big money might be over.
And just to be clear, i’m not saying Duda is bad as i really like him. Just noting that the market might not treat him as well as we might think next year, especially if guys like Moss/Alvarez/Bautista/Trumbo glut the market again by taking one year contracts.
I see your point about a potential glut of similar-type offensive players.
However, Duda is younger than Bautista and Encarnacion and is a better fielder for his position than the rest of those guys. Also, a lot will depend on if the Mets give him a Qualifying Offer. I’m not sure of all of the ramifications of the new CBA on the QO but it’s probably fair to speculate that the QO is hurting Bautista and Trumbo right now.
I think he’ll probably get more than Morales, maybe something similar to what Murphy got. If he has a monster year, i could see the 3/50 Gus mentioned. The pessimistic case might be 2/22 (my gut tells me the Rays are interested in this case).
The new system barely penalizes the team from signing a QO player(2nd+5th for a big market team and 3rd for a small) and limits the opportunity for the team giving the QO.
I don’t forsee the Mets giving Duda a QO because of the new 50+ mil threshold. Unless you’re projected to clear 50 mil by a lot, it makes sense for a team to offer 49.99 mil (and maybe some easy incentives to compensate?) to prevent the player’s former team from getting a sandwich pick (you get a late 2nd round instead) and i could easily see that happening to Duda which means it’s not worthwhile to gamble giving him the offer
Yea, it’s very complicated now
Im not sure you can say the market is souring on big bat types. This year had a glut of them making competition, and lets not forget that this year Ces got *paid* even of others didnt. Last year the money was ridiculous. Every year the calculus changes based on availability and changes in team stuctures that move into “all in” phase. The age thing also was misplayed by both EE and JB in my opinion. Bautista was on an on about making 150M$, which shows how seriously out if touch he is.
As for Duda, time and time again I hear the words “DH” for him. Apparently, the perceived view is that he’s an ok 1B tht would be well suited for the AL. Id be shocked if the Mets offer him anything let alone a QO.
Chris, you’re the second person to tie Duda to the position DH, to which he has no problem.
http://metsmerizedonline.com/2013/08/lucas-duda-sums-up-why-he-wont-be-on-the-mets-moving-forward.html/
His last two full season results were both 30/90 paces. While we now look at metrics, if he has three straight full seasons of 30/90 pace, it would be awfully impressive.
If you have 10 minutes to spare, and care to read what a Lucas Duda supporter with a few hours to spare did to get the world’s opinion of Lucas Duda:
http://www.amazinavenue.com/2017/1/6/14174338/finding-a-consensus-opinion-on-lucas-duda
Probably a college student between semesters. Kid needs to get out more…
If the Mets have no Market for Bruce, I’d like them to explore Trading Duda…or Non-Tendering him if it’s not too late. Hand Bruce a Mitt, and Wilmer too.