Jacob deGrom had a marvelous 2018 season for the Mets, and was rewarded with a well deserved Cy Young Award. The righty is once again pitching brilliantly, and once again he deserves to at least be in the conversation for the 2019 Cy Young.
There are several other contenders who are all pitching lights out, so it should be an interesting battle. These would include Hyun-Jin Ryu of the Dodgers, and Max Scherzer of the Nationals.
Ryu is leading the league in ERA with a 2.00 mark as of this writing, and is second in WHIP with a 0.983 total. With respect to FIP, Ryu is fourth at 3.18. Impressive totals all, in fact Cy Young worthy totals.
As to Scherzer, the 3 time Cy Young winner has racked up a 2.41 ERA, tied for second in the League with Mike Soroka of the Braves. In WHIP Scherzer’s figure is 0.998, third in the league. And in FIP Scherzer is the leader at 2.19.
Right in this mix is deGrom. He is fourth in ERA with a 2.56 mark, and is sixth in WHIP with a 1.037 reading. His FIP 2.68, second to Scherzer. deGrom is a strikeout pitcher, and is leading the league with 162 K’s.
Ryu was the clear early favorite for the award, for much of the season his ERA was well below 2.00. However Ryu has been roughed up in his last two starts. Dodger Manager Dave Roberts is concerned, worrying that the South Korean left-hander may be fatigued, since he is on pace for pitching more innings than he ever has in the majors. Roberts has said he is considering reduced and or shortened starts for Ryu. Since the Dodgers have a big lead in the West Division they can afford to get less innings out of Ryu.
Scherzer did miss a few weeks due to an injury this summer, but the workhorse is back in action and pitching for a team that is in the thick of the wild card race and still has a shot at the division. The ultra-competitive Scherzer is sure to pitch plenty of innings, at least until Washington’s spot, if any, in the postseason is clarified.
deGrom had some less than stellar starts earlier this year, but like the team he has surged since the All-Star break. Post-break deGrom has posted a 1.04 ERA and a 0.92 WHIP, good for a 4-0 record, with (no surprise) four no-decisions.
There will be other pitchers who could win it, notably Scherzer’s teammate Stephen Strasburg, Zack Greinke of the Diamondbacks, and possibly even the rookie Soroka. There are probably some other pitchers that could earn consideration as well.
Of course, for Met fans, the race they are most interested in is the one for postseason berths, a race that is more difficult after the Braves sweep. But the better deGrom pitches down the stretch, the more likely the team is to do better as well.
I am a full blooded Met fan, however if the Cy race ended today, it has to be Ryu, hands down. If it is not, there is something fishy in MLB ville or with the writers going on. Love deGrom, but this is not 2018. Let’s be real here.
Edwin, I never said deGrom was the favorite, just in the conversarion. I actually think Scherzer may end up winning it.
Right now Scherzer has a 5.7 fWAR and deGrom is at 5.6 and no one else is above 4.5 (Strasburg)
In bWAR, Scherzer and deGrom are tied at 5.4 and Soroka has a 5.1 mark. In the past, you’d be worried about Soroka’s W-L record of 10-2 but voters proved last year that W-L record alone wasn’t going to determine the race.
That being said, I do worry about Strasburg and the possibility of him winding up with 20 wins. Last pitcher in NL to get 20 wins was Scherzer in 2016. Scherzer and deGrom both finish close in both WAR metrics and Strasburg has a strong showing there, too, and 20 wins, that could be a tie-breaker, I fear.
Since the Mets are scheduled to play the Dodgers in two weeks the idea of a fatigued Hyun-Jin Ryu brings me a bit of joy compared to the dread of seeing a scary bunch of guys invading Flushing.
John, since Scherzer was hurt, why didn’t you put his percentages in? His 12.49% is a full K above JdG’s 11.50%. Too, Scherzer has the highest BABIP he’s ever had at .320 and JdG is at his normal-ish .297. Ryu has a low 7.84% strikeout rate, leading to a higher 3.17 FIP because he needs his fielders to make more outs for him and also a lower 3.8 fWAR. Too, as we would expect, Ryu’s BABIP is a paltry .256 and he has by far the lowest BB% at 1.12%.
If these numbers continue, and with the Dodger shutting down Ryu to save innings, I’d personally have to think hard about passing up Scherzer if he comes back and finishes strong and would put Ryu third in this race.