In their last eight games, the Mets have accumulated 54 runs. For a team that’s struggled to score all season, it’s wonderful to see, even if it’s come against the last-place Pirates and a no-name starter for the Reds. You can’t score that many runs without both some power and the hit gods smiling in your direction. But considering how long the Mets had gone this year without either of those things happening, they were certainly due for a stretch like this.
On paper, it certainly looked like the Mets had an offensive juggernaut heading into 2021. But poor starts and multiple injuries – both to regulars and guys who replaced them once the starters went down – have hamstrung the offense the first three months of the season. Even after this eight-game surge, the Mets rank tied for 10th in the NL in home runs (100) and 12th in BABIP (.286) here in 2021.
But if we narrow our focus to July, which is about twice as long as their current hot streak, the Mets rank second in the NL in homers (26) and 10th with a .308 BABIP. It’s a little surprising to me that the BABIP mark isn’t better. But the Mets have four of their top nine hitters in PA for the month sitting with a BABIP of .214 or less. It’s just that for a good part of the year that number has seemingly been seven players struggling at the same time. It’s nice to have more than two hitters in the lineup clicking.
The Mets have 13 players with at least 10 PA here in July and eight of those have an OPS of .800 or more. And it’s not like it’s all of the guys with the fewest PA, either. Of their top six players in PA for the month, the one with the lowest OPS is Pete Alonso, who checks in with an .809 mark. Only two guys are struggling right now and fortunately neither one is a starter. Jonathan Villar has a .558 OPS and Kevin Pillar sits with a .464 mark.
On Sunday, we talked about the lift provided by the return of J.D. Davis and Brandon Nimmo – who’ve replaced the struggling Pillar and Villar – but they’re not alone. We hoped that the earlier returns of Michael Conforto and Jeff McNeil would provide a boost but they struggled when first activated. But Conforto has a .908 OPS and McNeil’s recorded an .835 mark here in July. And both of those guys have turned it up in the last eight games.
Additionally, Dominic Smith has 8 XBH in 60 PA this month, leading to a .915 OPS.
The sad news is that Francisco Lindor got hurt in the middle of a hot streak, as he posted a .989 OPS in 48 PA this month before hitting the IL. Luis Guillorme gets the chance for more playing time and while he’s no threat to match Lindor, he still carries a very respectable .764 OPS this month. And that’s OBP-heavy, too, as he has a .400 on-base percentage. You wonder why a guy with no power is able to draw the walks that Guillorme does. But he’s got excellent strike-zone judgment. While in small samples, we’ve seen Guillorme’s walk rate go up each year in the majors. This year, in easily the most playing time he’s had with the Mets, Guillorme has a 17.9 BB%, closing in on twice as high as the 9.5% he posted as a rookie in 2018.
Pitching had carried the Mets most of the first half but the strain of all of the injuries to the starting rotation is now showing. At one point, if the offense scored four runs, it was nearly a guaranteed win. The Mets have averaged 6.8 runs in their last eight games, yet are only 4-4.
We’ll see if the good hitting can continue once the Mets start facing better pitching. It seems like most of us will take our chances with this lineup – even without Lindor – if everyone starts hitting like their Baseball-Reference page. It’s fun to see the power we know this team has finally show up in games. Last night they produced 18 hits, with eight of those going for extra-bases. More of that, please.
At the same time, we’ll see if the Mets won’t have to rely so much on their bullpen once Carlos Carrasco and Jacob deGrom return from the IL. It would be nice to need the relievers for 15 IP in a week, rather than in two games like what was needed on Sunday and Monday. While it was fun to see Anthony Banda come in and throw consistently in the mid-90s from the left side, it would be better if they didn’t need to reach so far into their organizational depth for a reliever who wasn’t overworked.