Many people expected the Mets to struggle in this 13-game stretch against the Dodgers and Giants. It wasn’t an outrageous forecast, given how those were two of the top three teams in the National League and how the Mets were playing their worst ball of the season. And the pessimists were 100% correct, as so far, the Mets are 1-8, including an 0-6 mark against the Dodgers. And later today the Dodgers can sweep the season series.
The last time the Dodgers swept the Mets was 2017. If you recall, that was the year the Mets spent 4.5 months challenging the expansion Padres for worst record with RISP. In the seven games against the Dodgers that year, the Mets were outscored, 57-15. The Mets were shut out in three of the seven games and the closest one was a three-run loss.
At least this year, the losses have been competitive. Four of the six losses have been by one run, including two in extra innings. There was also a 4-1 setback in there, too. Only one game, the final one in Citi Field, looked like a game from 2017. Does it mean anything? Maybe, maybe not. To me, it feels a world of difference between 2017 and today. Back then, it didn’t seem the Mets belonged on the same field as the Dodgers. Maybe they don’t in 2021, either. But 2017 felt like being taken behind the woodshed. This year feels like being snakebit.
POLAR BEAR CLIMBS TO THE TOP – With his home run in Saturday’s game, Pete Alonso passed J.D. Davis for the top OPS+ mark on the club for those who have amassed at least 100 PA. Alonso now has a 130 OPS+, between the 145 of his rookie year and the 121 of 2020.
While the Mets have been underachieving here lately, Alonso has been hot. In his last 12 games, he has a .333/.396/.708 line, with nine of his 16 hits going for extra bases. Meanwhile, it’s been the opposite for Davis. Since producing a 2-HR game in his first start of the second half of the season, Davis has now gone 33 games without a homer and he has just seven extra-base hits, all doubles, in his last 111 PA.
THE LATEST WITH LUGO – In his first game after the break, Seth Lugo allowed 5 ER in 0.2 IP in a game the Mets lost, 9-7. In 13 games since, he’s been the dominant reliever the Mets need him to be. He’s allowed just 1 R in 14.1 IP, has a 5.3 K/BB ratio and he’s allowed opponents just a .463 OPS. Saturday was a rare game where he appeared in the back half of two-straight appearances. For years, the Mets were being careful with Lugo, avoiding back-to-back games because of his elbow. But after missing the first two months of the year recovering from elbow surgery, the expectation was that those days were behind him.
Ideally, relievers would be used in back-to-back in rare circumstances only. But the 2021 Mets, with all of the injuries to their starters, have had to rely heavily on their bullpen. And it would be nice to be able to use Lugo more often than they have. Just recently, they used Jeurys Familia in a key spot that was begging to use Lugo. He had not pitched the day before and had thrown 10 pitches in the last three days. Hopefully going back-to-back Friday and Saturday is an indication that he will be more available going forward. If he’s only going to pitch an inning at a time, he needs to be available more than twice a week.
NIMMO’S WACKY SEASON CONTINUES – When you think of Brandon Nimmo, you think of his on-base prowess and his keen batting eye which allows him to go deep in counts and draw a lot of walks. However, in his last 13 games he’s amassed just five bases on balls and none in the last five games.
And while it may not be the first thing you think of, Nimmo also offers good power. In his last two healthy seasons, Nimmo recorded a .200 and .204 ISO. And while he hasn’t been 100% healthy this year, it’s been disappointing to see an ISO roughly half of that from him. He’s been hitting for a better average but it’s not a tradeoff worth making. He had a 148 OPS+ in 2018 and a 143 mark in 2020. This year he has a 122 OPS+.
It was encouraging to see a double and a homer from Nimmo on Saturday. With the Mets not getting the power expected from Michael Conforto and Dominic Smith, nor the power hoped for from Jeff McNeil, the last thing they need is a power outage from Nimmo, too.
DÉJÀ VU ALL OVER AGAIN – Earlier it was referenced about the Mets’ woeful production with RISP for most of the 2017 season. This year, they rank 13th in OPS in this split and are dead last in runs scored. While they’ve still played a couple of games fewer than most of the other teams in the league, that doesn’t explain how they are 24 runs behind the 14th-place Pirates.
In their last nine games, the Mets are 9-72 with RISP. In a related matter, the Mets are 1-8 in those games. In their only win, they went 4-13 in the key split. In the other eight games, the Mets are 5-59 with RISP. With five one-run losses in this stretch, it’s maddening how their complete inability to deliver in the clutch has played out.
Be it blowouts or nail biters, since the 2015 playoffs the gap between the Mets and Dodgers is about the same as from NY to LA. I may prefer behind the woodshed to snake bitten.
Despite heating up, Polar Bear whiffed for the last out with the 2021 Met kryptonite…as have countless others in clutch circumstances.
Nimmo is the anti-Duda. He realizes that while OBP is his top priority, he does need to hunt cookies to keep the league’s pitchers honest. He is an excellent leadoff hitter.
Alonso whiffed y looking at the first strike right down the middle then missing two high pitches that were out of the zone.
It’s interesting, Brian, how two of the things you mentioned were answered in today’s game. Nimmo got 2 walks, Davis homered.
Three things – they were 3-10 with RISP and also drove in runs with a walk and a fielder’s choice.
I remember the 1988 season. The Mets had beaten the Dodgers 10 games out of 11 and were heavily favored in the playoffs, but the Mets lost to them 4 games to 3. Maybe this year the Mets could return the favor, assuming, that is, that we win the division.