If the Mets don’t make any additional moves this offseason, David Peterson begins the year as the club’s fifth starter. Only people who are related to Peterson want to see him in the rotation for Opening Day. But how does the club handle him? Assuming they make a move to replace him in the rotation, do they keep him in the majors as a long reliever? Or do they send him to Triple-A to remain a starter?
Peterson made his debut in 2020 thanks to the abundance of injuries and an opt out by Marcus Stroman. He was very successful in his 10 games, although he out-pitched his peripherals by a wide margin. Last year he pitched a bit better than his ERA but no one who allows 11 HR in 66.2 IP is really getting the job done. Overall, in 116.1 IP with the Mets, Peterson has a 4.64 ERA and a 1.315 WHIP. That’s probably about what you would expect from a fifth starter. So, why not just give him the job and be done with it?
The reality is that the Mets have three starting pitchers where age and injury are a big concern. Jacob deGrom missed half the year in 2021 and he’ll be 34 next year. Max Scherzer has been a machine in the last decade but 2022 will be his age-37 season and he’ll turn 38 at the end of July. Carlos Carrasco will be 35 next year and he was dreadful in 12 starts with the Mets. It wouldn’t be a shock if he was at the end of the line.
The Mets just can’t expect 95 starts from that trio. On top of that, it’s hard to say what they should expect. Where would you set the over/under? Is it realistic to expect 70 starts? We saw what happened last year once deGrom went down. If the Mets hope to make the playoffs, they better be close to 90 starts from that trio. At the same time, they have to plan for only getting 60 and be prepared for even fewer if things go south with Carrasco.
Prior to Spring Training last year, the Mets had deGrom, Carrasco, Stroman, Taijuan Walker and Peterson as the expected rotation, with Joey Lucchesi, Corey Oswalt, Jordan Yamamoto and Robert Gsellman (in their minds, at least) around for depth, with Noah Syndergaard ready to rejoin the rotation in mid-June. And that turned out to be nowhere near enough depth. Stroman and Walker were healthy but everyone else came down with an injury or eight.
They had to trade for Rich Hill (12 starts) and promote Tylor Megill (18 starts) and they still had 19 different pitchers start a game for them in 2021. Plenty of those were openers and guys who you hope never pitch for the team again. Still, the Mets should plan for at least a dozen different pitchers to start a game for them in 2022.
So, they have the three old guys, Walker, Peterson, Megill and Yamamoto. Trevor Williams, too. That’s eight, so they should be looking for at least four more guys. Maybe they re-sign an Oswalt or a Robert Stock. Adam Oller is probably one of the depth guys. Perhaps Jose Butto and minor league Rule 5 pickup Alex Valverde, too. It still seems to be screaming for a guy who could start the year in the majors.
Steve Cohen has said that he wants to model the Mets on the Dodgers, which seems like a pretty good idea. One thing the Dodgers have done is to stockpile pitchers to make up for frequent IL stints from their hurlers. Clayton Kershaw hasn’t made 30 starts in a season since 2015. And it’s not just Kershaw. Since 2016 the Dodgers have just four seasons of a pitcher making 30 starts. And they’ve done just fine in that time frame, with their 542 wins in the regular season being the tops in that time frame. When one of their starters went down, they weren’t throwing Jerad Eickhoff out there.
So, my opinion is that the Mets should shoot for the best pitcher available, regardless of his injury concerns. For me, that’s Carlos Rodon, who posted a 4.9 fWAR last year in 24 games. That makes the Opening Day rotation deGrom, Scherzer, Rodon, Carrasco and Walker. Then you have Peterson, Megill, Yamamoto and the rest to fill in when the inevitable injuries hit. Of course, it will help if the depth guys don’t go out for months at a time while the starters are out missing half the year, concurrently. Let’s hope the team got that out of their system in 2021.
That still leaves the question of what to do with Peterson.
According to FanGraphs, he still has multiple options available. It’s good to have that in your back pocket but my preference would be to keep Peterson in the majors, while having Yamamoto and Megill in Triple-A.
One of my frustrations with modern bullpen deployment is the rush to make everyone a short reliever and operate under the assumption that one day off automatically refreshes the reliever, regardless of how much he’s pitched recently. My pen would have multiple guys capable of going multiple innings, understanding this would keep them from being available the next day.
You want to remove Walker after five innings? Then pitch Peterson for the next three frames, instead of using three or more guys to get those innings completed. You start the season with Peterson and Williams in that role. Perhaps Seth Lugo, too, depending on how you want to utilize him. Lugo wasn’t exactly great as a short reliever in 2021, with numbers across the board down from 2018-19. In those two seasons, Lugo had 41 relief appearances when he went at least two full innings. Last year he had just four.
Can Peterson hack it as a reliever? None of us can say for sure that he can or he can’t. But from my office chair, he should get first shot. And if it turns out he’s getting lit up as a reliever, you take advantage of that option and switch him out for Yamamoto or someone else. So, use him as a long man to start the season. But go into the year knowing that he’ll be used as a starter at some point. And be ready to send him to Triple-A if need be. It shouldn’t be too much to ask a manager and front office to plan for that type of flexibility.
The issues you raise above are core and the top priority at this point of the offseason. My preference was, barring any injury in spring training, to have Peterson, Megill, and Yamamoto as AAA starters. This would benefit on two fronts – it would allow for further development, and it would provide starters that were immediately available for big league action, not requiring time to be “stretched out”. This is of course contingent and the assessment of their capabilities – do these guys still have potential to be serviceable back end big league starters? and on the 2022 starter depth chart, are they the best options for #6, #7, and #8?
I completely agree with the strategy of “assigned” piggy back guy. I like that they retained Williams over Gsellman for that job and/or spot “opener”. This would allow guys like Carassco and Walker and/or other yet-to-be-obtained starter to avoid third time through order…if the stats/basic logic show that to be a clear preference. Lugo and Williams are capable, but it would be optimal to have the piggy back guy throw from the opposite side as the starter. This makes Peterson tempting. It also makes it tempting to bring in a lefty as the additional starter, although I would expect Rodon to be able to go deeper into games…and be more costlier.
If money as no issue, Rodon and and two quality pen arms are great. If some budgeting is necessary, I’d opt to go with a lower cost lefty starter that would likely be a two-times through the order guy, and add a quality lefty to the pen that could go two innings, and add another quality guy to the pen that could close as Diaz insurance.
Oh Brian! That last sentence of yours; in an otherwise well written article, is the proverbial elephant in the room. It seems like in the last decade, it has been asking too much for the FO and manager to advocate using a reliever the way you postulate. I think too many of us have been frustrated at how the managers tend to pull a reliever after his one inning no matter how well he was doing, and how few pitches he has thrown.
And let’s say you did have a SP throw 5 innings and was at 90 pitches and had allowed one, two, or three runs. You know he’s not going to be pitching again until his next turn in the rotation comes up. It would make perfect sense to have your long reliever finish the game if he’s doing well. And if he’s done well for three innings, why not let him finish? Either way, he’s out of action for at least three days anyways. Why bring in your closer in that scenario?
I personally think the days of a designated closer is done. You can’t have the one guy to finish up 70+ games anymore…..a team is better off having decent pitchers to share the role.
And I realize that all this sounds good in theory, and that an astute manager (should) know best how to (and when to) use his personnel. Which makes the selection of the right manager for the team the most important move the front office has to make this off season.
While I’m not sure any of the three will crack the top five starters, I see them as
1. Megill
2. Peterson
Yamamoto?
I was a huge Peterson guy a year ago, but he hurt me, man. I think he’s better off pitching innings at AAA than scuffling around in Queens… he needs to get his mind and confidence to the big league level. Megill is much closer… guy was exciting… I think he’s a legit piece going forward. Yamamoto, no idea… hardly saw more than an inning.
Trevor Williams has real value.
I’d like to see more than one LH option in the pen.
Rodon would be huge.
The Dodgers not only stockpile quality pitchers, they develop them.
Something Sandy Alderson’s Mets have failed to do. We really don’t even develop relievers. Or outfielders. At least Allen and Ginn — Brodie guys — give us some reason to hope; but those two are not nearly enough.
Even when we don’t count “bullpenning” games, the Mets used 12 starting pitchers in 2021. Peterson will get his shot. I do think he’s a starter and should probably begin the year in AAA. He’s a nice piece to have, but results-wise, he could go either way.
I have a core belief that managers & GMs don’t “decide” who starts, the players reveal themselves. You can have all sorts of plans and ideas about what might happen, but then the players come along and tell you what’s what. Peterson will let us know (but I would not want to pencil him in as my #5 in December of 2021).
Megill, OTOH, has always struck me as a reliever forced into a starter’s role — he’s got that two-pitch arsenal and an unflappable demeanor — and I think he’s tougher when he adds 1-2 mph to the fastball, coming in and throwing 20-25 pitches. He does look like a guy who could go two.
As you concluded, they need more arms in the pen and at least one more high-quality starter. I anticipate some of that will come via trade when the Mets unload Smith, McNeil, Davis.
Eppler has work to do.
Last season, the day Jake went down, it was over. The sh*t was shot. It’s hard to see how 2022 would be any different.
There’s a lot to be done before I see the Mets as a WC team.
Too bad about the strike. I don’t think we’ll see any action on this until late March at the earliest. At least Eppler will be well-rested.
Piggybacking… it could be nice experiment but ultimately we never get to see it in action because the allure of matchups is too much for a manager to resist after the 7th inning.
A plan of one pitcher going 4 and then Peterson getting the next 4? Let’s say the first pitcher gets thru 4 IP, Peterson has thrown 2 IP and it’s now 3-2 Mets ahead with 3 RH batters coming up in the 7th? Doubtful a modern manager would have the balls not to make a move to a RHP at this point.
I know someone earlier in the comments mentioned piggybacking.
Just want to be clear that this is not my idea or intention. It’s just that there are always multiple opportunities each week for relievers to pitch two or more full innings.
I like the thinking in the article, and many good points here. Ultimately, the best place to get major league hitters out is in the majors. I’d leave Peterson up as a bullpen piece along with Megill, as Jimmy pointed out, and I’d look for Yamamoto, Williams, Oller, Butto, and Walker to be my AAA starting rotation.
I dunno if I’m on the same planet as Gus, but there were stretches last season when Taijuan Walker was as good as it gets. Does that stretch in the second half, when maybe his arm went a little dead and he lost that 10% (from exhaustion) that elite athletes need to compete effectively nullify that entire first half, when he was a top 10 starter in the game? I watched him start after start pound the strike zone with hard freaking stuff that no hitter could square up… I’m expecting, and really hoping for a quality young man, that he can pick up from that high point and find himself. If he can, and a curse on all the naysayers in this cold, hard world, he is a major piece of the rotation.
None of us are on the same planet as Gus!
Sorry, Gus, couldn’t resist.
I share your hope on Walker — and your assessment of his 2021 season. He just looked gassed.
Seems like a really impressive character, too.
Wobbit, I don’t see where I mentioned Walker but I guess we could from the same planet because I agree with your assessment. My thought, as per the article, was that Peterson would be helped more by being in the bullpen in 2022 to face MLB hitters than being in the minors to be stretched out but face weaker hitters that may not prepare him to get big leaguers out consistently.
It’s ok Brian, I’m used to being disagreed with. But, I keep trying…