Mets manager Terry Collins has made it clear that the leadoff spot in the lineup will come down to either Curtis Granderson or Juan Lagares. His preference, as of last week, is Lagares. That’s not much of a surprise considering Lagares is the only starter on the team with any kind of speed. The team would like him to take more advantage of that speed in the form of a more aggressive approach to stealing bases. The problem, of course, is that he’ll need to get on base more often than he has if he’s to become an effective leadoff hitter.
Lagares’ career major league OBP is an unacceptable .302. It’s especially unacceptable as a leadoff hitter. That takes into account all of two seasons, though, and those two seasons were dramatically different. In his first season in 2013 his OBP was an abysmal .281. It’s not uncommon for a young player to struggle in his first exposure to regular major league pitching, and Lagares was no exception. Beyond typical rookie struggles, Lagares was also the victim of Collins’ managerial decisions with regard to playing time in 2013 and to a lesser extent in 2014.
In 2014 Lagares’ OBP shot up to a more respectable .321. While still not quite ideal for a leadoff hitter, it’ll play for a team without many alternatives. Collins has stated that his goal for Lagares is to get his OBP to about .330-.340. It’s a good goal that seems attainable, but what exactly changed between 2013 and 2014 on which Lagares can continue to build?
His 2013 and 2014 offensive lines were remarkably similar, but one stat stood out when comparing his first two seasons: his BABIP. His .310 BABIP in 2013 was technically around what is generally considered league average. The issue is that a big part of Lagares’ offensive game in the minors was his consistent ability to hit for a higher-than-average BABIP. Most people associate BABIP with a player’s luck. Specifically, if a player has a BABIP that is much higher than their career numbers indicate, the likelihood is that their offensive output will regress as their BABIP regresses back to their career norm. The reverse is true for underperforming players as well.
In Lagares’ case, he’s shown that a higher-than-average BABIP is part of his game. As such, it’s no surprise that his OBP (and batting average) rose in 2014 as his BABIP itself rose to a more Lagares-like .341. Still, that .341 is at the higher end of his spectrum so he’ll need to improve other facets of his game if he hopes to maintain a respectable on base rate.
The key thing he’ll need to work on outside the scope of his natural ability is his walk rate. In 2013 and 2014 his BB% was below 5%, awful for any player but especially for a leadoff hitter. Unlike BABIP, Lagares never displayed an ability to walk in the minors. That means that he’ll need to fundamentally change the way he’s approached each at bat his entire career, something that is easier said than done. Luckily (conveniently?), the Mets organizational hitting philosophy works in tandem with his needed improvements. This season will go a long way in determining if he’s capable embracing that philosophy and turning it into results.
If Lagares can successfully bring his walk rate up to a respectable level, he can become an asset in the leadoff spot. If he can bring it up to Granderson-type levels, he could be a star.
It’s a good point and the right discipline at the plate could go a long way in table setting.
By the way, did you see Conforto’s smooth swing?
Just as I loved Herrerra’s bat speed, I love the smoothness of Conforto’s swing. I’d love to see Juan L contribute more offensively as he is such a mainstay defensively.
Using a talented player’s BABIP in his Minor League ascent is a very unreliable way to project his MLB success. Lagares walks 5% of the time and k’s 20%…and there is virtually no change in any of the “underliers” between his first 400-500 ab’s and the subsequent ab’s.
The list of lifetime leaders in BABIP is mostly filled with guys who drive success with much stronger underlying factors..
… http://waswatching.com/2013/06/24/highest-career-babip-min-3000-pa/
Lagares is far more likely to regress toward the MLB BABIP average than he is to continue to exceed it, based on his underlying and (as yet) unchanged) approach.
A 5% walk rate and a 20% plus K rate will not add up to great OBP success…..something needs to change..His Approach.
Hopefully he walks more often than he has in the past. I think Juan is surely capable of being more effective on offense. Last season he hit pretty well, now it’s just a matter of having confidence to take pitches, work the count and hopefully draw more walks. I’m not sure if he should be the leadoff hitter, but I think that is what will inevitably happen. I can’t picture Granderson hitting leadoff, even though he has had success there. For me, Granderson needs to be in a position to drive runs in.
Lagares vs LHP should be the lead off batter. His splits for 2014 vs LHP was 349/387/488/875. Against RHP I would move him down to 7th and that is where he can hone his skills. If he proves worthy then move him up during the season. I would not gamble to start the season with Lagares as the full time lead off batter when I have a capable batter like Murphy available to lead off vs RHP. Murphy over the years has shown he is not a power hitter but he is a good man with the bat but the talk is the Mets want to put him in a position to drive in runs. Instead I wish the Mets would put these two players in position to succeed and if Lagares develops his skills there will be plenty of time to move him up to full time lead off.
Strange how we see things so different from Collins. There’s not a chance in hell Collins leads off with Murph, regardless if it makes sense.
Either Murphy is traded at some point this season or he walks at the end of the year. To trade Murph he has to be packaged as a strong offensive threat since his glove is not going to attract other teams. Thus, Murph has to placed in a spot where he can burnish his hitting stats. Batting him leadoff probably won’t help him post the kind of run-producing numbers that he might post in other spots.
So, whether TC sees him as a leadoff hitter or not, the front office probably does not want him there.